Recessions & Crashes: Memories & Lessons

[winston]

Dear All,

As per my discussion with Lena, we have now changed the title of this thread to "Recession - Lessons & Memories". Hence, this thread will be filed under "R". I have also moved this thread into the "Other Investments & Ideas" section.

Take care,
Winston

[fclim]

did SOGO disappear at the last recession?
how abt Daimaru? quite recent rite?
hmmm... so seems like FD rates will fall some more? so sad...

have fun,
fc

[kennynah]

all the groceries stores at my neighbourhood all still operating....no change there...

[LenaHuat]

Tangs closed their store at Taka. Metro reduced theirs to only 1 at Paragon.
But the KFCs, McDonalds and BurgerKings rung up double digit growth here.

Looking at Mojo's chart, the original ASEAN 6 are heading south.

[iam802]

all the groceries stores at my neighbourhood all still operating....no change there...

In my previous place, a grocery store that I have patronised for more than 15 years (from student till I start my family) was gone.

A family run business by 3 brothers. The sad truth is they bought the shop at a high from HDB.

And revenue is not enough to support the loan + 3 families.

Now, looking back, are there still as many groceries stores?

I think the landscape has changed a bit. More supermarkets (chains like NTUC, Shop N Save etc).

Even some family run grocery store try to be 'bigger' so that they can benefit from economies of scale. Instead of 1 shop space, they try to take 2 shop space and compete.

[winston]

I recalled that the number of bank branches was reduced in the last recession. I had to also move my safety deposit box a couple of times as the banks were closing sown their branches.

Anyway, we need to focus more on how to anticipate things this time and more importantly, to make some money from our previous experience

[mojo_]

Looking at Mojo's chart, the original ASEAN 6 are heading south.

heading south from this year... but heading north from 10 years ago

[kennynah]

Anyway, we need to focus more on how to anticipate things this time and more importantly, to make some money from our previous experience

i concur that we learn history lessons so as to benefit our current and future undertakings... this, incidentally, is the principal behind .....

technical analysis

[winston]

I recalled that during the Asian Financial Crisis, some wealthy families in neighbouring countries lost their banks etc. That was because they were not on good terms with the political establishments and therefore, were not saved by the politicians ...

So if you wanna invest in a Conglomerate this round, ask yourself whether the owner of the conglomerate is in good terms with the political establishment or not. If they are not, then there is a higher probability that they would not be saved. If they are very arrogant, dont be surprised that the politicians will be going after them this round ..

[kennynah]

.... If they are very arrogant, dont be surprised that the politicians will be going after them this round ..

maybe not a matter of arrogance...more a matter of subservience....