Semiconductor Industry 02 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

[behappyalways]

Shortage
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qgXtlafr--g

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SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics were among the biggest decliners after DeepSeek said it managed to reduce the amount of high-bandwidth memory needed for its latest model, stoking worries about the outlook for semiconductor demand: BBG
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2098262360083329066


DeepSeek-V4.1 Flash is pushing KV cache compression to levels once thought impossible.

This is actually insane.
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/2098094324437184575

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Huawei Pulls Its Nvidia-Killer Forward To Q1 - But There's A Catch
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/huawei-pul ... eres-catch

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"Supply Shortage Problem Has Disappeared": Acer CEO Says Memory Prices To Decline In 2027 As CXMT Starts Mass Production Of New Chip Platform
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/suppl ... -2027-cxmt

[winston]

<Research> Citi: Severe HBM Market Supply Shortage Seen in 2027-2028 as Demand Growth Far Exceeds Expectations

Citi released a research report stating that the recent HBM de-spec trend is not a sign of weakening demand, but rather a pragmatic approach to maximize accelerator shipments amid tight supply conditions.

Driven by scaled-out AI architectures, continual learning, and broader adoption of ASICs/GPUs, the bank expects HBM bit demand to surge 62% YoY to 75.2 billion Gb in 2027, and rise a further 69% YoY to 127 billion Gb in 2028, around double market estimates.

The bank noted that even as suppliers continue capacity expansion, supply will still significantly lag demand.

The supply-demand gap is expected to widen from negative 21% in 2027 to negative 36% in 2028.

Citi forecasts HBM supply to grow 64% YoY to 59.3 billion Gb in 2027, and increase 36% YoY to 80.9 billion Gb in 2028.

By supplier, Samsung Electronics, SK hynix Inc. (SKHY.US) and Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) are expected to increase HBM capacity by 50%, 67% and 52% YoY respectively in 2027, reaching monthly wafer capacities of 240,000, 270,000 and 140,000 wafers respectively.

Related News BofAS: AI Dominates Discussions at Asia-Pacific Investor Conference, Bullish on S Korea and Taiwan Memory and Semiconductor Sectors

The bank believes the projections reflect a severe supply shortage.

Except for isolated cases, prices for HBM4 12hi are expected to surge 100% to 150% YoY from around USD2 per Gb in 2026 to a range of USD4-5 per Gb in 2027.

HBM 8hi is expected to command a premium of around 20% to 30% over 12hi, creating substantial upside for memory suppliers in terms of average selling prices and profit margins.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news ... -news/AAFN