Market Timing 08 (Apr 2023 - Dec 26)

[winston]

Is the global tech sell-off the start of a bear market or just a correction?

Investors must assess if underlying drivers are cyclical and temporary or indicative of a sustained weakening

by Chloe Lim

Factors behind the dip were attributed to the release of surprisingly strong US jobs data, rate-hike concerns and continued geopolitical instability due to the Iran war.

Corrections are often driven by short-term factors such as profit-taking, changes in investor sentiment or temporary uncertainty.

Bear markets, meanwhile, are “often associated with a deterioration of economic conditions, corporate earnings or financial liquidity”.

A broad “buy-the-dip” approach can be risky, especially when valuations are still elevated, earnings expectations are high and many investors are crowded into the same artificial intelligence winners now.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... xperts-say

[winston]

Are markets at a tipping point?

Higher rates and new equity supply test markets but strong earnings and steady growth can sustain the bull run

Historically, well-telegraphed IPO cycles in bull markets have deepened liquidity and broadened participation once absorbed.

by John Woods

A much stronger-than-expected May jobs report, a clearly hawkish shift in US Federal Reserve tone, rising real yields, a firmer US dollar, and a heavy pipeline of mega initial public offerings (IPOs) have together prompted a more pointed question: Are we at the market top?

Our base case is for the Fed to maintain its benchmark Fed funds rate at 3.75 per cent through 2026 and 2027.

Tech leaders that once spent hundreds of billions of dollars on share repurchases are now becoming net issuers.

Where companies can demonstrate earnings growth that outpaces the rise in real discount rates, particularly in high-productivity areas tied to AI, valuations can remain supported.

The balance of risk still favours remaining invested in quality growth, rather than stepping aside in anticipation of a top that the fundamentals do not yet justify.

They say bull markets do not die of old age, they are murdered by the Fed – typically, when rates are raised. We believe rates will remain on hold well into 2027, while growth and earnings remain sufficiently robust to support the ongoing market rally.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/wealth ... ping-point

[winston]

When will the stock market crash?

While AI may be behind the surge in American markets, it doesn’t explain the performance of the ones in London or Singapore

by David Kuo

Over the last five years, the S&P 500, which is a broad measure of the US market, has increased by more than 70 per cent.

The FTSE 100, which is a measure of the UK’s largest 100 companies, has risen 50 per cent.

The Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) has improved by more than 60 per cent.

Money is also being spent on data centres, chips and energy grids. By the time they are finished – estimated within the next five years – about US$5 trillion to US$7 trillion would have been spent on AI.

The heavyweight stocks on the FTSE 100 are healthcare, energy, financials, miners and consumer goods. Meanwhile, the main drivers of the STI are banks.

Warren Buffett said: “I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”

Buffett also said that he prefers to build arks rather than predict rain.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/wealth ... rket-crash

[winston]

A Major Two-Month Rally Points to 21% Upside

by Brett Eversole

Sticking with momentum might be unintuitive … but it works.

This might seem unbelievable to a lot of investors. But it’s true. We’re in the middle of a strong bull market. Stop fighting it and stay long.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2026/06/17/ ... 21-upside/

[winston]

S&P 500 Correction?

Investors must hedge any further S&P 500 rallies and brace for a potential “three-wave correction” in the *next few months* , says the head of technical research at Bank of America.

The S&P 500 Index has been on tear, rising almost 17% since March lows. But the rally is showing signs of exhaustion, BofA’s Paul Ciana wrote in a note.

He says the S&P 500 could drop as low as 6,850, a roughly 7.6% decline.

“The post-ceasefire rally is becoming more volatile as correction risks build,” Ciana said.

With momentum deteriorating, he said a “defensive stance” for July through September is warranted.

Source: Bloomberg

[winston]

This Bull Market Can Still Move Much Higher

by Brett Eversole

Futures traders haven’t been this bearish on tech since 2020. And according to history, that negativity is setting up another big move higher.

As surprising as it might be, futures traders are darn bearish on tech right now. From a contrarian perspective, that’s exactly the kind of skepticism that can fuel the next leg higher.

This market won’t peak until everyone is “all in.” We’re not there yet… which means this bull market can still move much higher.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2026/07/02/ ... ch-higher/

[winston]

Why We Watch the Banks Each Quarter

by Jeff Clark

We watch the banks every quarter because the action in bank stocks tends to lead the action in the broad stock market – especially during earnings season.

When the banks are strong, the market rallies. When the banks are weak, so is the stock market.

The banking sector has been rallying for the past few weeks. BKX trades about 10% higher now than at the start of June. And, that action has some financial television talking heads wondering if the banks are set to rally through the summer.

I suspect the banking sector is setting up a “sell on the news” event.

The stocks are running higher now in anticipation of strong earnings reports. Investors are discounting the good news ahead of time.

Let’s keep an eye on the BPFINA. If it turns lower from here, we’ll have a new sell signal for the banking sector. And, in turn, we’ll have another reason to be cautious on the broad stock market.

Source: Jeff Clark Trader

https://jeffclarktrader.com/market-minu ... h-quarter/

[winston]

The Stock Market Just Did Something Last Seen in 2020. It Signals a Big Move in the Next Year.

by Trevor Jennewine

The Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) delivered a truly impressive performance. The index skyrocketed 21% in Q2 2026 to achieve its best quarterly performance since Q2 2020.

Companies in the technology sector account for 61% of the Nasdaq by market value, compared to 38% of the S&P 500.

The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,214 when the second quarter ended on June 30. The index will climb 22% to hit 31,981 by July 2027 if its performance matches the historical average. That implies nearly 24% upside from its current level of 25,832 as of July 2.

Source: The Motley Fool

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stock ... 00710.html

[winston]

Why We Can Expect a Strong Second Half of 2026

by Brett Eversole

Stocks recently finished their best quarter since 2020. And while these good times won’t last forever, history tells us we can expect a strong finish to 2026.

Of course, right now, folks are worried about what could go wrong. They don’t appreciate how good we’ve had it. And they won’t… until the bad times show up again.

The good news is, we’re not there yet. Stocks can keep rising in the months ahead. So stay invested. And don’t forget to appreciate the good times while they’re here.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2026/07/22/ ... f-of-2026/

[winston]

The Stock Market Is Doing Something Observed Only 6 Times Since 1871 -- and the Previous 5 Occurrences Ended in Disaster for Wall Street

by Sean Williams

As of the closing bell on July 27, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E Ratio was nearly 40.5.

Despite being introduced by economists less than 40 years ago, the Shiller P/E Ratio has been backtested to January 1871. Over this 155-year and nearly seven-month period, it's averaged a multiple of 17.

Source: The Motley Fool

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stock ... 00955.html