Risks Out There 07 (May 23 - Dec 26)

[winston]

Reasons to worry about America’s investment position with the rest of the world

Data shows that our global financial system is plagued with serious but often ignored imbalances

If the US tech bubble implodes, the pain will spread beyond America.

by Gillian Tett

A new survey by Bank of America suggests that investor sentiment towards the US dollar is souring.

The US Treasury reported that overseas investors bought a net US$1.55 trillion of long-term US financial assets in 2025, from a net US$1.18 trillion in 2024 (up 31% yoy). Of this, US$442.7 billion were Treasury notes and bonds and US$658.5 billion equities.

It shows that fears of a “sell America” capital flight currently are wildly overdone, whatever the world thinks of Trump.

If US equity prices and foreign direct investment reverted to 2019 levels, Norway, Canada, Sweden and China would see a reversal of the investment gains equivalent to 20 to 40 per cent of their GDP.

Source: Financial Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinio ... rest-world

[winston]

The new age of chokepoints

Why global commerce depends on too few places and too little governance

Physical vulnerabilities include the Taiwan Strait, the Dover Strait and major port infrastructure in Europe and Asia.

Suez operates under Egyptian sovereignty with limited international oversight.

Panama’s canal is shaped by domestic politics and great power competition.

Malacca is jointly managed by states with divergent interests and limited enforcement capacity.

Hormuz remains exposed to regional instability without a binding governance framework.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinio ... hokepoints

[behappyalways]

Three major global financial trends: Black swan events are getting bigger and bigger!

'26.03.04【豐富│東南西北龍鳳配】Pt.2 全球三大金融趨勢：黑天鵝越來越大隻！

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=snj-4m9hJxo

[winston]

Should investors worry about a 2008-style shock?

From Iran to private credit, things are unnerving but the wider financial system is better prepared

There are fears that AI will undermine the business model of software companies backed by private credit.

by Gillian Tett

2008 – or just before the great financial crisis – two unsettling financial trends collided: oil prices surged to almost US$150 a barrel and private funds holding sub-prime mortgages reported mounting losses.

Private credit faces a US$40 billion redemption wall in 2028.

Private credit is around US$2 trillion in size, so fairly small for the system as a whole.

The sector will become even more vulnerable if long-term rates rise – say, if the price of oil and other goods rises because the Strait of Hormuz stays shut.

Source: Financial Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinio ... tyle-shock

[behappyalways]

Find out about the liquidity trap in private equity funds now!

'26.03.11【豐富│東南西北龍鳳配】Pt.3 趕快弄清楚私募基金流動陷阱！

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IWQmSkzGg5s

[winston]

Oil surge exposing cracks in $1.8 trillion private credit market

AI data center debt, software collapse and oil shock in three-way collision, that has analysts invoking 2008 credit market analogies

by William Pesek

Source: Asia Times

https://asiatimes.com/2026/03/oil-surge ... it-market/

[behappyalways]

Oil prices are no longer the biggest threat to markets.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2035862840284688507

[winston]

Why this oil shock is different

Governments and central banks are out of policy ammunition to contain the economic fallout

by Ruchir Sharma

Longer-term inflation expectations remain stable, but markets fear the Iran oil shock will trigger more spending on top of rapidly expanding deficits and debt, which is resulting in a higher term premium for bonds.

The most vulnerable nations are those with the highest government debt and deficits, and with a central bank missing its inflation target. In the developed world they include most prominently the US and the UK; in the emerging world, the most at risk are led by Brazil, Egypt and Indonesia.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinio ... -different

[behappyalways]

The Iran War will upend the global economy; the risks lie not only in energy but also in debt.

伊戰將顛覆全球經濟 風險不僅在能源還有債務【短篇】#TVBS文茜的財經周報 20260412

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-iT3tYbWN4c

[behappyalways]

AI has long been a serious bubble!

26.04.17【觀點│龍行天下】Pt.3 AI早就嚴重泡沫化！

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zvwX9dc2lP4