by winston » Wed Apr 22, 2026 8:58 am
The U.S. Is Talking to Cuba — and Threatening It at the Same Time
What's Happening
U.S. State Department officials made an unannounced trip to Havana on April 10 — the first U.S. government plane to land in Cuba since 2016.
Washington is pressing for political prisoner releases, property compensation and greater freedoms, while maintaining a fuel blockade that has left the island in darkness and short on food.
What Comes Next
A deal is more likely than not — Cuban leaders will likely calculate that partial concessions beat a Maduro-style operation.
But the gap on property compensation alone runs $9-10 billion and Trump has repeatedly signaled Cuba is "next" for military action.
The April 24 deadline for prisoner releases will be the first real test of whether talks hold.
Source: RANE Worldview
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"