China - Economic Data & News 22 (Jul 24 - Dec 26)

[behappyalways]

China’s 2025 trade surplus hit US$1.2 tril as exports soar
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/n ... ports-soar

[winston]

China’s slowdown is set to deepen as pivot to consumption stalls

Beijing has stuck to a growth target of “around 5%” for the past three years

Lopsided reliance on exports over consumption that is set to extend into the coming months.

Gross domestic product likely gained 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter from the same period a year prior. That would be the lowest since the reopening from the Covid-19 lockdowns.

Retail sales growth is seen moderating to a fresh three-year low in December and fixed-asset investment is set to post its first annual contraction since official data started three decades ago.

While Beijing has prioritised domestic spending, it is unlikely to unleash major stimulus as it continues to battle risks tied to local government debt.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/intern ... ion-stalls

[behappyalways]

China new loans shrink to least in seven years as demand weakens
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/c ... nd-weakens

[behappyalways]

China Dec. Power Output Rose 0.1% Y/y to 858.6b kwh
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2013080186036670855


China now generates 40% more electricity than the US and EU combined.
https://x.com/stats_feed/status/2012870588516495699

[behappyalways]

Number 2 in the military hierarchy...

Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli are under investigation for suspected serious violations of discipline and law.
张又侠刘振立涉嫌严重违纪违法被查
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/news/china/st ... 24-8159160

[behappyalways]

‘If it gets any colder, you couldn’t take it’
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0RwCNNwEppI


Why Beijing wants Hainan to be more than just ‘China’s Hawaii’
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HUG058hnLcA


China
https://x.com/LyleJMorris/status/2015021818457821541

[behappyalways]

The sudden downfall of Zhang Youxia, the PLA's "second-in-command," underscores Xi Jinping's increasingly centralized control.
共軍「二把手」張又俠閃電落馬 指揮加倍集權習一人｜方念華｜FOCUS全球新聞20260126 ‪@tvbsfocus‬
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dZsEu66Ah ... wKAYcqIYzv


China's Sacked Top General Accused Of Leaking Nuclear Secrets To US: Report
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... secrets-us

[behappyalways]

中國經濟增長精準"保5" 難掩房市黑洞吞噬內需【短篇】#TVBS文茜的世界周報 20260125
4K views · 1 day ago...more
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=llTkTA2x_ ... MBo7VqN5tD

[winston]

China’s easy money floods metals markets as real economy falters

“We are seeing rocketing short-term trading volumes in silver, copper, aluminium, nickel, tin and steel wire rod futures markets, in the last few months, likely a result of surplus liquidity with a dearth of attractive options elsewhere”.

The M2 measure of money supply expanded 8.5 per cent in December from a year ago, a much faster rate compared with the 3.9 per cent rise in nominal gross domestic product recorded in the last quarter of 2025.

Chinese banks last year extended the least amount of new loans since 2018.

Fixed-asset investment – covering buildings, machinery and infrastructure – recorded the first annual contraction on record.

China’s present economic conditions – weak consumption, deflation and industrial overcapacity – don’t support the run-up in prices.

Factories that rely on metals to make appliances, phones and cars have scaled back purchases rather than get crushed by the extra costs, leaving real-world demand languishing and disconnected from futures markets.

Roughly US$7 trillion in time deposits held at banks come due this year.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/intern ... my-falters

[winston]

China is pumping cash to fill a US$456 billion liquidity shortfall

Boosting the supply of money available to banks to ensure they can meet the surge in demand for cash during the Chinese New Year holidays.

The central bank injected a total of 600 billion yuan (S$110 billion) via a 14-day repurchase agreements late last week, ending a two-month hiatus for such operations.

The injections would address a roughly 3.2 trillion yuan liquidity gap identified by Bloomberg calculations.

Withdrawals related to holiday spending, heavy government bond issuance and surging corporate demand for the yuan are all expected to drain funds from the banking system.

Expect a liquidity drain of 900 billion yuan from holiday travel and the tradition of gifting cash in red envelopes during the Chinese New Year festivities.

Economists expect China to slash banks’ reserve-requirement ratio by 50 basis points this year and cut interest rates.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... -shortfall