US - Market Strategy 04 (Jul 25 - Dec 27)

[winston]

Lower Interest Rates Could Soon Turn This Bull Market into a Full-Blown Melt Up

by Brett Eversole

This cycle has repeated throughout history…
1. A small problem snowballs into a crisis…
2. The crisis triggers a major policy response…
3. Easy money sets the stage for a market mania.
It happened in 1998 with the dot-com boom… It happened again during the COVID-19 pandemic…

And it appears to be happening again today, even without a crisis.

Many investors are looking for reasons to worry. They’re practically begging for a reason to sell. But the biggest risk today might be owning too few stocks.

Lower interest rates could soon turn this bull market into a full-blown Melt Up. Make sure you’re positioned to profit when that happens.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2025/10/10/ ... n-melt-up/

[winston]

HIGHS AND LOWS

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Shinhan Financial (SHG)... South Korean financial services
Grupo Cibest (CIB)... Colombian bank
Cencora (COR)... drug distribution
CVS Health (CVS)... drugstores and vaccines
Roivant Sciences (ROIV)... biopharmaceuticals
Belite Bio (BLTE)... biopharmaceuticals
Disc Medicine (IRON)... biopharmaceuticals
ASE Technology (ASX)... semiconductor services
InterDigital (IDCC)... tech research and development
Estée Lauder (EL)... cosmetics
Monster Beverage (MNST)... sports drinks
Ferrovial (FER)... infrastructure
National Grid (NGG)... energy delivery
Advanced Energy (AEIS)... electrical equipment
Northwestern Natural (NWN)... utility

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Par Technology (PAR)... foodservice technology
Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI)... Permian Basin supplier
Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)... defense contractor

Source: Daily Wealth

[behappyalways]

JPM: "Oracle's debt to equity ratio is already 500% compared to 50% for Amazon, 30% for Microsoft and even less at Meta and Google. In other words, the tech capital cycle may be about to change" (Cembalest, Sept 24)
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1981812034489458875

[winston]

HIGHS AND LOWS

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

American Express (AXP)... financial giant
Banco de Chile (BCH)... financial services
Cencora (COR)... pharmaceuticals
McKesson (MCK)... health care giant
Alphabet (GOOGL)... tech "World Dominator"
Intel (INTC)... chipmaker
Pure Storage (PSTG)... data storage
Zscaler (ZS)... cloud security
Ciena (CIEN)... telecom equipment
Nokia (NOK)... networking tech
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)... education services
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)... entertainment
Ralph Lauren (RL)... iconic apparel
3M (MMM)... manufacturing
TE Connectivity (TEL)... industrial "picks and shovels"
HF Sinclair (DINO)... oil refinery
RTX (RTX)... "offense" contractor

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Not many... It's a bull market, you know!

Source: Daily Wealth

[behappyalways]

Meta Tumbles, Microsoft Slides, Alphabet Soars After Mag 7 Earnings Deluge
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/meta- ... ngs-deluge

[behappyalways]

Oh boy. The number of Russell 3000 companies with higher interest costs than income just rose to the highest level since 2022
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1984963184357265703


Concentration keeps on climbing. New record print of 42%.
https://x.com/themarketear/status/1984588635837026777


Is this AI CapEx spending sustainable?
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1984973951425040512

[winston]

HIGHS AND LOWS

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

American Express (AXP)... financial giant
Banco de Chile (BCH)... financial services
Grupo Cibest (CIB)... Colombian bank
McKesson (MCK)... health care giant
Cencora (COR)... pharmaceuticals
Roivant Sciences (ROIV)... biopharmaceuticals
Cardinal Health (CAH)... prescription drugs
CareTrust REIT (CTRE)... health care REIT
Ciena (CIEN)... telecom equipment
Imax (IMAX)... movie theaters
Las Vegas Sands (LVS)... casinos and resorts
Expedia (EXPE)... online travel agency
Valero Energy (VLO)... oil refiner
BP (BP)... oil and gas

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Fiserv (FI)... digital payments
DraftKings (DKNG)... sports-betting leader
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)... tacos and burritos
Cava (CAVA)... restaurants
Clorox (CLX)... cleaning supplies
LyondellBasell Industries (LYB)... chemicals
Zoetis (ZTS)... pharmaceuticals

Source: Daily Wealth

[behappyalways]

Oh boy. US equity risk premiums are in negative territory, meaning stocks offer investors no return whatsoever on a risk adjusted basis. This assumes investors are borrowing short-term and pocket a return in-line with the earnings yield
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1988241570722619890

[winston]

HIGHS AND LOWS

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Aflac (AFL)... insurance
Loews (L)... insurance
Cencora (COR)... pharmaceuticals
Biogen (BIIB)... biotechnology
Revolution Medicines (RVMD)... biotechnology
Welltower (WELL)... health care REIT
Ventas (VTR)... health care REIT
Topgolf Callaway Brands (MODG)... golf equipment
Seaboard (SEB)... transportation
Phillips 66 (PSX)... oil and gas
Imperial Oil (IMO)... oil and gas
Canadian Solar (CSIQ)... renewable energy

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

C3.ai (AI)... AI-software developer
DocuSign (DOCU)... electronic signatures
Stride (LRN)... online education
Charter Communications (CHTR)... cable TV
AMC Entertainment (AMC)... movie theaters
GameStop (GME)... video-game retailer
Clorox (CLX)... cleaning supplies
Crocs (CROX)... footwear
La-Z-Boy (LZB)... furniture
Enphase Energy (ENPH)... energy storage

Source: Daily Wealth

[winston]

Nasdaq 100 rally shows signs of stalling

by Zane Aw Yu Xuan

The previous record resistance level in February at around 22,100 points would likely hold as a strong support.

This level is confluent with the 200-day SMA, a key long-term dynamic support level, as well as a 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level using the swing low of 16,542 points formed on Apr 7

In conclusion, the current drawdown for the Nasdaq 100 is likely to persist in the near term with a breakdown of key support levels amid a pullback in the AI trade and reduced Fed rate cut expectations.

The 22,100-point level would likely hold as a strong support should the pullback extend to that area, given a confluence of technical signals.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... s-stalling