US - Market Strategy 03 (Jan 24 - Dec 26)

[behappyalways]

"Despite the rebound of US stocks, risk awareness is essential"

25.03.27【豐富│財經起床號】黃詣庭談「儘管美股反彈，風險意識不可少」

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hFkEKFi0myQ

[behappyalways]

NASDAQ 100 valuations are normalizing towards long-term averages
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1906821007446265950

[winston]

The Stock Market is Still Historically Pricey, Even With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Falling into Correction

by Sean Williams

Even though stock valuations remain historically pricey, and there’s a high probability we’ll witness the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite move lower over the short-term, the statistical returns data overwhelmingly favors all three indexes moving substantially higher over time.

Source: The Motley Fool

https://dailytradealert.com/2025/04/10/ ... orrection/

[behappyalways]

Rising yields, weakening dollar, jump in repo volumes, tighter swap spreads and surging gold suggest an exodus of foreign real money investors. Foreigners hold a lot of dollars assets, if they were to rebalance away then prices have much more to fall.
https://x.com/FedGuy12/status/1911761051487514716

[behappyalways]

Leveraged Long ETFs saw a weekly inflow of $6.6 Billion last week, the most in history
https://x.com/Barchart/status/1913232018319822913

[winston]

Nasdaq 100 at crossroads, signals cautious near-term outlook

A decisive move above 19,400 could open the path for a rally towards the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci level near the 20,000 psychological mark.

Conversely, sustained selling pressure may push the index lower, with potential support levels at 18,200 and 18,000. A breakdown below these could trigger a further decline towards 17,435 - the August 2024 low.

Consider waiting for a confirmed hold above 18,200 before entering long positions, with a stop-loss below 18,000.

Alternatively, be prepared for potential short positions if the index fails to reclaim 19,400, targeting a decline towards 17,435.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... rm-outlook

[winston]

HIGHS AND LOWS

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

ICICI Bank (IBN)... Indian multinational bank
Fortis (FTS)... utilities
Atmos Energy (ATO)... utilities

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Global Payments (GPN)... payments technology
ManpowerGroup (MAN)... staffing agency
Hologic (HOLX)... medical devices
Coty (COTY)... cosmetics
Sweetgreen (SG)... fast-casual salads

Source: Daily Wealth

[winston]

HIGHS AND LOWS

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Deutsche Bank (DB)... financial services
Netflix (NFLX)... video streaming
VeriSign (VRSN)... domain-name provider
Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO)... video games
Enbridge (ENB)... pipelines

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

UnitedHealth (UNH)... health care giant
Campbell's (CPB)... soup
PepsiCo (PEP)... soft-drink maker
Enphase Energy (ENPH)... energy storage

Source: Daily Wealth

[winston]

A slight sell-off by foreign investors could rock the US stock market, says veteran strategist

by Brian Sozzi

The market has gotten too upbeat after its early April Trump tariff rout.

I think there is a new risk premium on US assets as seen by foreign investors that did not exist before the 'Liberation Day,' maybe before the administration started.

The Treasury Department estimates we have about $30 trillion of US equity and bond holdings by foreign investors.

If, for example, a Canadian pension fund decides to cut allocation to US stocks and bonds by 2% each — 4% total — it's a small adjustment for the fund. But if all foreign investors do so, "$1.2 trillion would leave US assets".

The uncertainties spawned by the administration’s tariff policy, especially with multiple reversals, as well as nagging questions that the Fed’s independence may be undermined, have raised concerns in the foreign investor community that had been largely overweight US assets.

It is hard to put the genie back in the bottle once such concerns are raised. Consequently, foreign investors' allocations to US investments may reduce and shift to non-US assets, particularly when allocating new capital, while their currency hedge ratios on exposures to US assets may increase, both of which could continue to pressure US dollar.

Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-slight ... 5920839559

[behappyalways]

Market volumes remain wildly skewed towards penny stocks.... the 10 most active stocks all trade below $1 (we’re being VERY generous here, all but two are below 2 pennies).... these 10 stocks currently make up 23% of the 9.3B shares on the tape" - Goldman
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1917649478376362361