Baidu (BIDU), HK 9888; 02 (Nov 22 - Dec 26)

[winston]

vested

Feb 13, 2025

<Foresight>Brokers Expect BIDU-SW 4Q24 Adj. NP to Fall 38% YoY; Focus on Mgmt Guidance (Update)

BIDU-SW (09888.HK) (BIDU.US) will announce its 4Q24 results after the Hong Kong equity market closes next Tuesday (18th), affected by the challenging macroeconomic environment in China and the joint venture NEV brand, Jiyue, etc..

Investors looked on management guidance, including the impact of AI investment on future margin, search transformation and core ad revenue commercialization progress, as well as the business outlook for AI Cloud (benefiting from generative AI and foundation model incremental and strong demand for GPU cloud).

Related NewsBrokers' Ratings, TPs for BIDU-SW (09888.HK) (Table)

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BIDU-SW's 4Q24 non-GAAP attributable net profit will range from RMB4.207 billion to RMB5.858 billion, down 24.5-45.8% YoY from RMB7.755 billion in 4Q23, according to 12 brokers' forecasts summarized by our reporters.

Median was RMB4.757 billion, down 38.7% YoY.

Broker│ 4Q24 Non-GAAP Attributable Net Profit Forecast (RMB)│YoY Change

Related NewsBrokers' Ratings, TPs for BIDU-SW (09888.HK) (Table) (Update)

CLSA│5.858 billion│-24.5%
Daiwa│5.668 billion│-26.9%
Goldman Sachs│5.23 billion│-35.7%
Citi│5.21 billion│-32.8%
Morgan Stanley│4.969 billion│-35.9%
JPMorgan│4.941 billion│-36.3%
Barclays│4.757 billion│-38.7%
CMBI│4.7 billion│-39.4%
CCBI│4.613 billion│-40.5%
Deutsche Bank AG│4.584 billion│-40.9%
UBS│4.329 billion│-44.2%
CICC│4.28 billion│-44.8%
Nomura│4.207 billion│-45.8%

Based on BIDU-SW's 4Q23 non-GAAP attributable net profit of RMB7.755 billion.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analy ... stock-news

[winston]

4Q24: Solid Earnings Beat And Strong AI Cloud Revenue Growth Outlook In 2025

Baidu’s 4Q24 earnings beat expectations.

Revenue dipped 2% yoy to Rmb34.1b, in line with consensus estimate.

Gross margin inched down 3ppt yoy to 47.2%, within consensus expectation.

Non-GAAP operating profit was Rmb5b, down 29% yoy, while non-GAAP operating profit margin came in at 15%.

Non-GAAP net profit plummeted 13% yoy to Rmb6.7b, albeit surpassing consensus estimate by 39%.

Maintain HOLD with an unchanged target price of HK$93.00 (US$103.00).

We lowered core ads revenue by 2% as we remain cautious on macro uncertainties as well as market share loss.

We raised EV/Sales multiples on AI Cloud from 3x to 4x in view of the strong 2025 AI Cloud revenue growth outlook and cloud sector upgrade.

Our target price implies 9x 2025F PE. The company is currently trading at 8.5x 2025F PE, below its historical mean of 14.5x.

Source: UOBKH

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://research.uobkayhian.com/content_download.jsp?id=83010&h=3d5cbcad747c5477f33557043b62bbeb&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-85GLIcB7tigTI1NJOKEw4Thg137dv4qwq8Q6eIQ-eDG2k1fDLHHel_jS_rc1qVQSob3UXRK1QRDShjIXJENrevI5_yRg&_hsmi=347936773&utm_content=347936773&utm_source=hs_email

[winston]

vested

Baidu Stock Falls As Ad Slump Weighs On Sales Despite AI Momentum

by RYAN DEFFENBAUGH

Online marketing revenue fell 7% year-over-year to 17.9 billion yuan, or $2.46 billion.

Source: IBD

https://www.investors.com/news/technolo ... src=A00220

[winston]

vested

Investors can buy the Chinese tech stock Baidu at an even cheaper price: a forward P/E of less than 9.

This can make for a fairly cheap artificial intelligence (AI) stock since it has been experiencing strong growth in that area of its business.

During the last three months of 2024, the company reported 26% revenue growth in its AI cloud business.

Although the overall business experienced a decline of 2% during the quarter, AI could be what lifts Baidu’s numbers in the future.

Its AI chatbot, Ernie, handled around 1.65 billion API calls in December, management says. And there are reports that it will unveil a next-generation AI model later this year.

Tech investors have been closely watching Chinese companies since DeepSeek released a low-cost AI model earlier in the year that is said to be on par with ChatGPT and other chatbots.

If Baidu can follow suit, that could not only generate a lot of bullishness around the stock but also help boost its AI business even further.

The company has been struggling to grow recently, but it hasn’t run out of catalysts by any stretch. As its AI business continues to grow, it could prove to be a stellar buy.

It may take some patience from investors since the uncertainty around a possible trade war between China and the U.S. could weigh on the stock over the near term.

But if you’re willing to buy now and hold for years, this could be one of the better AI stocks right now.

Source: TMF

[winston]

vested

<Research>CICC Expects BIDU-SW (09888.HK) 1Q Rev./ Core Rev. to Drop 3%/ 0.5% YoY

CICC released a research report forecasting BIDU-SW (09888.HK)'s 1Q25 revenue to drop 3% YoY to RMB30.6 billion.

Of which, BIDU-SW's core revenue will slide 0.5% YoY to RMB23.7 billion, while non-GAAP net profit will be RMB4.1 billion, with BIDU-SW's core non-GAAP net profit being RMB3.7 billion.

Therefore, CICC maintained its 2025/ 2026 revenue and non-GAAP net profit forecasts for the Group, and kept rating at Outperform.

The broker also maintained its target prices for BIDU-SW's US stock/ H-shares at US$99/ $96.

Related News: Citi Expects Baidu (BIDU.US) 1Q Results to Be in Line/ Slightly Beat

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

not vested

<Research>UBS Raises BIDU-SW TP to HKD120, Expects Steady Core Biz Progress in 1Q

UBS released a report projecting that BIDU-SW (09888.HK) will deliver 1Q25 results in line with market expectations, with core revenue remaining flat YoY.

For the core advertising business, UBS forecast a 5.7% YoY revenue subtraction in 1Q25, an improvement from the 6.6% drop in 4Q24, underpinned by a stabilizing macro environment and a lower base comparison.

The broker also anticipated sequential quarterly improvements in core advertising revenue in the coming quarters, turning to positive growth in 2H25.

On the cloud business, UBS was encouraged by growing demand for Model-as-a-Service (MaaS), including Baidu’s ERNIE foundation model and third-party models like DeepSeek, which is driving cross-selling of its traditional cloud infrastructure services.

This was expected to sustain robust cloud revenue growth above 20% YoY in 1Q25, vs 16% in 2024, with momentum likely to persist throughout the year.

Related News: Citi Expects Baidu (BIDU.US) 1Q Results to Be in Line/ Slightly Beat

UBS believed Baidu’s gradual monetization of AI in its search business offers potential for further recovery in core advertising revenue.

Additionally, progress in Baidu’s autonomous ride-hailing service, Apollo Go, was envisioned to narrow losses.

UBS raised its target price for BIDU-SW (09888.HK) from HKD119 to HKD120 and for Baidu’s U.S. shares (BIDU.US) from USD115 to USD123.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

vested

<Research>HSBC Research Postpones BIDU-SW (09888.HK) Positive Ad Rev. Growth to 3Q, Expects Full-yr Growth to Remain Negative

HSBC Global Research expected BIDU-SW (09888.HK) 's 1Q25 results to be broadly in line with the expectations of the market and HSBC Global Research.

HSBC Global Research estimated the monetization pace to accelerate in the second half of 2Q25, and assumed that advertising revenue will only turn positive in 3Q25 and remain negative for the full year.

Related News: UBS Raises BIDU-SW TP to HKD120, Expects Steady Core Biz Progress in 1Q

The broker has not factored in the potential drag from lower exports to the US and found it difficult to assess the net impact as consumer spending is expected to be supported by government stimulus.

HSBC Global Research trimmed its target price on BIDU-SW from $91.7 to $89.7, with rating kept at Hold.

The broker believed that BIDU-SW's accelerated buybacks are encouraging, but whether the stock can recover significantly may depend on the outlook for advertising.

More platforms launch their own products, and the competition for AI search becomes more intense.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

vested

Baidu, Inc. (BIDU): Among Michael Burry Stocks with Huge Upside Potential

by Sheryar Siddiq

Scion Asset Management’s Q4 Stake: $10.53 million
Analyst Upside as of May 9: 22.81%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 50

Macquarie analyst Ellie Jiang cut Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ:BIDU) price target to $83 from $85, while maintaining a Neutral rating on the company.

Baidu’s advertising segment is estimated to decrease 6% year-over-year in revenue to Rmb15.9 billion in the first quarter of 2025.

The AI Cloud’s revenue is predicted to climb by 25% year on year in the first quarter to Rmb5.9 billion.

Source: Insider Monkey

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/baidu-in ... 06093.html

[winston]

vested

<Foresight>Brokers Expect BIDU-SW's 1Q25 Adj. NP to Dive ~27% YoY; Spotlight on Cloud Biz Growth/ Search Transformation/ AI Monetization Progress

BIDU-SW (09888.HK) is set to announce its 1Q25 results after the Hong Kong market closes next Wednesday (21st).

According to the forecasts from 10 brokers as consolidated by our reporters, BIDU-SW's 1Q25 non-GAAP net profit, affected by declining advertising revenue as a result of softness in offline sectors such as healthcare, real estate, and home renovation, as well as the impact of AI transformation in its search business, is expected to range from RMB4.806 billion to RMB5.68 billion, down 19-41.1% YoY compared to RMB7.011 billion in the same period last year.

The median of RMB5.156 billion also marks a YoY decrease of 26.5%.

As the democratization of AI technology brought by Deepseek is anticipated to benefit BIDU-SW's AI Cloud in terms of AI training and inference demand, investors will be watching closely for growth in the company's advertising and cloud businesses and the latest management guidance on operations, which will include advertiser budget sentiment, vertical industry performance, search transformation, and AI monetization progress.

Broker | 1Q25 Non-GAAP NP Forecast | YoY Change
Goldman Sachs | RMB5.68 billion | -19.0%
Morgan Stanley | RMB5.43 billion | -22.6%
Haitong Int'l | RMB5.355 billion | -23.6%
Nomura | RMB5.313 billion | -24.2%
Citi | RMB5.098 billion | -27.3%
CLSA | RMB5.074 billion | -27.6%
CCBI | RMB4.886 billion | -30.3%
China Renaissance | RMB5.214 billion | -25.6%
Daiwa | RMB5.008 billion | -28.6%
UBS | RMB4.806 billion | -31.5%

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

vested

China-Based Baidu Burns $1.2 Billion To Fuel AI Cloud Growth

by Anusuya Lahiri

The quarterly revenue of $4.47 billion, up by 3% year-on-year.

Source: Benzinga

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-ba ... 07649.html