“Diversification is a safety factor that is essential because we should be humble enough to admit we can be wrong.”
- John Templeton
U.S. stocks absolutely stank from 2000 to 2010. Owning almost anything else was a better bet.
The S&P 500 is down about 5% so far in 2025. Meanwhile, emerging markets are up 4%, and developed markets outside of the U.S. are up 7%. And German stocks, as an example, are up 19%.
In short, we have a generation of investors brainwashed against investing outside the U.S. But right now, that’s exactly what you want to do.
Blackrock chairman Larry Fink said that the future standard portfolio may look more like 50/30/20 – 50 per cent stocks, 30 per cent bonds and 20 per cent private assets such as real estate, infrastructure and private credit.
Some assets that are increasingly seen to help diversify portfolios and enhance returns;-
1. Private equity
2. Private credit
3. Gold
4. Real estate and infrastructure
There is no choice to the US dollar.
“Diversifying away from America is impossible” given its economic might, after AkademikerPension became the first European pension fund to vow to sell its US government debt holdings.
There is a difference “between the potential of AI and where valuations are".
In comparison to the dotcom period; the scale of exposure is much more now. So any correction, regardless of the size of the correction, the consequences of that for the world economy are larger this time around than back then.
Weakness in the US dollar and fiscal stimulus may drive inflation higher in the US.
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