Tenaga Nasional

[winston]

not vested

A strong quarter

Balanced risk-reward 2Q24 results were ahead of our/consensus expectations from better genco performance and lower system loss.

In our view, expectations of elevated grid capex and new generation projects have been priced in to a large extent.

Maintain HOLD with a higher DCF-based TP of MYR14.00 (+4%) following our earnings revisions.

Note that 4Q is usually a weak quarter for TNB’s earnings due to the back-loading of general expenses.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/402915.pdf

[winston]

not vested

Demand supports higher capex for RP4

We see a strong case for significantly higher T&D capex under RP4 to meet power demand which is tracking well above historical trends.

GenCo earnings are also turning the corner on the back of operational improvements. We raise our 2025F-2026F PAT by 3-9% to factor this in.

Valuations remain undemanding, in our view, despite the strong YTD outperformance. Reiterate Add with a higher SOP-based TP of RM19.10.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 8ABE614715

[winston]

not vested

Tenaga Nasional (TNB MK)

A Visit To Company’s Hydro Asset To Understand Plant Rejuvenation Plans

We recently visited Chenderoh hydro plant, which has been earmarked for plant rejuvenation and solar PV under NeTR.

Broadly, TNB aims to modernise 650MW of its existing hydro plants in Malaysia in 2026-33.

In addition, there are plans to plant up to 400MW of floating solar PVs on those dams.

This will help drive Malaysia towards net zero carbon emission by 2050 with a 70% green energy mix. Maintain HOLD. Target price: RM13.20.

Source: UOBKH

https://39646150.fs1.hubspotusercontent ... 0(TNB%20MK)%20241024.pdf?utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_edrPH2Ylqc2q7J6SONTz25UoClXjZlss23NyPRxMX8KILdY9wzoF9r3ygzQFbVk8xGmEGMZwOex7MkKcV3sc2amuVTA&_hsmi=330581483&utm_content=330581483&utm_source=hs_email

[winston]

not vested

TNB 3Q profit up 85% on RM1.12b forex gain

By Izzul Ikram

85% rise in net profit to RM1.58 billion for its third quarter ended Sept 30, 2024 (3QFY2024) thanks to hefty foreign exchange (forex) gains, against RM856.2 million in the same quarter last year,

Quarterly revenue grew 6.6% to RM14.35 billion against RM13.47 billion last year, driven by a 4.93% rise in electricity sales.

TNB booked a forex gain of RM1.12 billion — consisting of a RM1.11 billion translation gain and RM7.6 million transaction gain in the quarter under review — compared to a net forex gain of barely RM4.6 million in 3QFY2023.

Source: theedgemalaysia.com

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/735873

[winston]

vested

Tenaga Nasional (TNB MK) 3Q24: Results Below Expectations; Stock Is Fairly Valued

The group booked a sequentially weak 3Q24 core net profit of RM750m (-44% qoq, -7% yoy).

This brings 9M24 core net profit to RM3b (flat yoy).

The results accounted for 69% of our earnings which we deem below expectations.

Pending an analyst briefing today, we look to trim our earnings by at least 5%.

We believe expectations of a favourable RP4 outcome is largely priced in.

Maintain HOLD with an unchanged DCF-based target price of RM13.20.

We would top-slice and await a better entry level.

Source: UOBKH

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://39646150.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/39646150/Research/Tenaga%20Nasional%20(TNB%20MK)%20241129.pdf?utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_uZughMY15xwooiYesndSnXxF9uJueZlzXS6gusgDha9Ar2tAb1R1_duc4JWIqAPlRdlk4oCt2bRbqiAE5vQ3vJE3qpg&_hsmi=336181729&utm_content=336181729&utm_source=hs_email

[winston]

Tenaga Nasional (TNB MK) Set To Benefit From A Healthy Regulatory Period 4 Regime

TNB announced a healthy RP4 base capex growth of 30% and maintained a rate of return of 7.3%.

We understand that the base capex will form the base tariff from which TNB derives pre-tax profit for 2025-27.

Thus, the 30% increase in base capex will lift 2025-27 net profit by 3% annually.

At this stage, we have no further details on demand growth, coal and LNG price assumptions.

Current valuation has largely priced in TNB as a key beneficiary of NeTR. Maintain HOLD. Target price: RM13.20.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... e=hs_email

[winston]

vested

4Q Results

Revenue: +6%; RM 14.4b
EPS: +62%; RM 0.16; RM 955m
Net Asset: RM 10.38

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_in ... id=3529806

https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/Fi ... TTACHMENTS

[winston]

vested

4Q24: Results Within Expectation; Lower Generation Cost And Opex

TNB reported a strong 4Q24 core net profit of RM1,370m.

Earnings doubled yoy on the back of revenue flow-through, lower staff costs and lower depreciation charges.

This brought 2024 core net profit to RM4,330m (+16% yoy) in the absence of a negative fuel margin.

Earnings are in line with our expectation but ahead of street estimates.

We take this opportunity to raise 2025/26 net profit estimates by 3%/6% respectively, factoring in higher demand growth in RP4.

Maintain HOLD with a higher target price of RM14.20.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... e=hs_email

[winston]

not vested

A good start

1Q25 normalised net profit was up 18% qoq and 17% yoy.

The results were largely in line with expectations, at 23-24% of full-year forecasts.

There was a rare 1.2% yoy drop in electricity demand during the quarter, while receivables fell sharply to a 14-quarter low. RAB was up 7% yoy.

Reiterate Add, with an unchanged DCF-based TP of RM19.10.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 91B9AB5EEC

[winston]

not vested

Tenaga Nasional (TNB MK)

1Q25: Results Within Expectation; Lower Generation Cost And Opex

TNB reported a strong 1Q25 core net profit of RM1,043m.

Earnings rose 10% yoy but fell 33% qoq on the back of revenue flow-through, lower general expenses and lower interest charges.

Accounting for 22% of house and street estimates, the results are in line with expectations, in our view.

1Q25 electricity demand saw weakness from the industrial and domestic sectors, partly offset by higher commercial demand for data centre services.

Maintain HOLD with a DCF-based target price of RM14.20.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... e=hs_email