Warning Signs 04 (Jul 23 - Dec 26)

[behappyalways]

World's Top Tractor Maker Slashes Outlook, Trims Jobs In Response To Slowing Sales
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/w ... wing-sales


The global freight recession will continue in 2024: CNBC Supply Chain Survey
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/07/freight ... urvey.html

[behappyalways]

Richemont CEO Warns "Softening Demand Across All Categories" As Luxury Downturn Worsens
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/riche ... rn-worsens

[winston]

The Best Recession Predictor is Sending Us a Warning

by Adam Galas

The yield curve is the best recession-forecasting tool in history.

When the short-term interest rates become higher than long-term interest rates, the economy is flashing an incoming recession warning.

A recession is coming in 2024. And as a result, a lot of optimistic economists and traders on Wall Street are going to be blindsided.

The average bear market is a 30% decline that scares investors into market timing and selling at the worst possible moment. That turns hard-earned cash into unnecessary losses.

Source: Wide Moat Research

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/11/14/ ... a-warning/

[winston]

Recent danger signals from the U.S. consumer

Hardship Distributions: The number of people taking “hardship distributions” from their 401(k) accounts jumped 13% between Q2 and Q3. This represents 18,000 people, which might not sound like many, but it represents the highest level in the past five quarters.

Credit Card Debt/Delinquencies: During Q3, credit card balances hit a new high of $1.08 trillion. Meanwhile, credit card APRs are pushing 30%. This has resulted in a surge in the rate of households becoming delinquent or entering serious delinquency. We’re now at the highest level since 2011.

Car Loan Delinquencies: According to Fitch, the percentage of subprime auto borrowers at least 60 days past due on their loans jumped to 6.11% in September. We’re at the highest level since 1994.

Savings Are Dropping: After a mild uptick in the personal savings rate in the first half of the year, savings have been falling. As you can see below, September’s personal savings rate of 3.4% is on par with summer 2008 levels when we were in a recession.

Consumer Confidence is Waning: The Conference Board’s most recent consumer sentiment survey from October 31st featured the title “Consumers Remain Pessimistic About the Future – Even as They Continued to Spend.”

Consumer confidence fell again in October 2023, marking three consecutive months of decline… Fewer consumers said that business conditions were good, and more said they were bad.

Source: investor Place

[behappyalways]

The last 4 times the 10Y Minus 3M Treasury Yield Curve inverted, it led to the 1990s recession, the Dotcom Bust, the Global Financial Crisis, and the 2020 Recession. Is this time different?
https://twitter.com/Barchart/status/1728073489784230169

[winston]

Crude Oil and Copper Hint at Tough Times Ahead

We can look forward to momentum and seasonality giving December a boost, but here's why we can expect a recession sometime next year.

Bottom line: both crude oil and copper are flashing warning signs about the U.S. economy.

Momentum and seasonality should carry stocks higher in December but charts are once again suggesting a recession sometime next year.

Source: The Street

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/stocks/ ... d-16139367

[winston]

There’s signs of stress in the markets and the economy:

1. U.S. corporate bankruptcy filings hit a 12-year high this year.
2. The number of corporations defaulting on their debt is accelerating.
3. High interest rates and elevated inflation still worry millions of Americans and business leaders.
This is why many smart folks out there are predicting a recession.

In fact, in a recent survey, 84% of CEOs polled say they think a recession will happen in the next 12 months.

Nearly 50% of Wall Street thinks a recession is inevitable and 69% of American consumers are predicting a recession in 2024.

Throw in the conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing dispute between Russia and Ukraine, and it’s easy to see why mass confusion and uncertainty have dominated the markets lately.

Source: Investor Place

[behappyalways]

Hedge funds have near all-time high gross leverage!
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 3565930612

[winston]

Are we in a recession (or not)? 5 ways to tell

by Laura Rodini

1. GDP declines
2. Yield curve inversion
3. Spikes in the Volatility Index (VIX)
4. Rising unemployment levels
5. Stock market crashes

Source: The Street

https://www.thestreet.com/economy/are-w ... B(or%2Bnot)?%2B5%2Bways%2Bto%2Btell&hashed_email=c86c5a36fed2064a1b80202bcb4a03c89060d1d4d1074a9e723b8f6c2b5181ac&lctg=62795946

[behappyalways]

January 17 has come and gone. Is the window of weakness now open?
https://twitter.com/SchwabNetwork/statu ... 4975027554