Warning Signs 04 (Jul 23 - Dec 26)

[behappyalways]

A good watch

The yield on U.S. long-term government bonds is approaching 5%. Chen Fengxin analyzes the reasons behind it. "The pressure has just begun..."
美國長天期公債殖利率逼近5% 陳鳳馨剖析背後成因「壓力才剛開始...」【#風向龍鳳配】
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-nPGL-qIvxQ

[winston]

One Real-Time Indicator Signals a Recession is Looming

by Chris Igou

It’s the total employment figure for workers in truck transportation. And it’s tied directly to the real-time economy…

The trucking segment moves more than 72% of all freight in the U.S. transportation industry. As such, employment in trucking grows steadily when the economy is humming along. But it takes a hit when the economy starts to slow down.

As you can see, total employment for the group has turned downward prior to each of the past four recessions (the gray bars). And sustained periods of job losses are otherwise rare.

As of August, which is the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, it had fallen 2.7% from its January peak.

This is a new signal telling us that a recession is increasingly likely.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/10/11/ ... s-looming/

[behappyalways]

Defensives are outperforming(xlu, gold, tlt) again. Probably to auck in the last bull...

Xlu....The smart money are seeking safety...


https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

Canary in the mine....be careful

Xlu surging...Russell 2000 falling...

[winston]

The last time US stocks were this pricey relative to the debt market, the S&P 500 crashed 50%

by Anil Varma

US stocks are near their most expensive levels in over two decades, relative to the debt market.

The last time stocks were this pricey versus debt was during the dot-com boom - that was followed by a 50% crash in the S&P 500.

"Equity risk premium is near its worst ever level going back to 1927," and previous such instances have triggered major market corrections, research firm MacroEdge said.

In August this year, the S&P 500 climbed to levels last seen during the peak of dot-com boom, relative to an index that tracks the US corporate bond market.

Equity Risk Premium: Earnings Yield minus Bond Yield

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/last-tim ... 18680.html

[behappyalways]

Ikea Plans Worldwide Price Cuts After Warning: "Time To Buckle Up"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ikea- ... ime-buckle

[behappyalways]

#Gold up nearly 9% in the past two weeks.

Don't tell me there isn't a flight to safety trade happening right now.
https://twitter.com/David_Dierking/stat ... 6100788625

Defensives are outperforming(xlu, gold, tlt) again. Probably to suck in the last bull...

Xlu....The smart money are seeking safety...


https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

Canary in the mine....be careful

Xlu surging...Russell 2000 falling...

[behappyalways]

Look at xlu performance last night. Compared it to the US indices performance. This is not risk on but risk off...

https://www.google.com/search?q=xlu share price&oq=xlu&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqDggAEEUYJxg7GJ0CGIoFMg4IABBFGCcYOxidAhiKBTIJCAEQRRg5GIAEMgcIAhAAGIAEMgcIAxAAGIAEMgkIBBAAGAoYgAQyBwgFEAAYgAQyBwgGEAAYgAQyBwgHEAAYgAQyDAgIEAAYChixAxiABDIHCAkQABiABDIVCAoQLhgKGIMBGMcBGLEDGNEDGIAEMg0ICxAuGIMBGLEDGIoFMgkIDBAAGAoYgAQyDAgNEAAYChixAxiABDIPCA4QLhgKGMcBGNEDGIAE0gEIMTYzN2oxajeoAgCwAgA&client=ms-android-xiaomi-rvo3&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

#Gold up nearly 9% in the past two weeks.

Don't tell me there isn't a flight to safety trade happening right now.
https://twitter.com/David_Dierking/stat ... 6100788625

Defensives are outperforming(xlu, gold, tlt) again. Probably to suck in the last bull...

Xlu....The smart money are seeking safety...


https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

Canary in the mine....be careful

Xlu surging...Russell 2000 falling...

[behappyalways]

We might now be in the midst of a stock market crash... Just be very careful

[behappyalways]

Another Domino toppling?

Britain's biggest "wealth manager" stops clients withdrawing money from their £1bn property fund.
https://twitter.com/moving_charlie/stat ... 2946325679

[winston]

Signs are pointing to another Black Monday. Somebody tell the Fed

Changes in monetary policy have a lagged effect. The Federal Reserve’s abrupt switch to tightening last year is now resulting in investor confusion

Today’s bond market jitters and monetary squeeze bring to mind the situation leading up to 1987’s global market crash, but the Fed seems oblivious

by Anthony Rowley

With two hot wars currently under way – Russia’s against Ukraine and Israel’s against Hamas in Gaza – on top of the US’ cold wars against Russia and China, attention is distracted from current threats to financial markets.

Bond and equity markets have been subjected to repeated assaults by central banks in the United States, Europe and Japan for a decade or more and, not surprisingly, they have now gone into spasms that threaten a replay of past crashes.

There is much talk among economists and analysts of a repeat of Black Monday – the worldwide stock market crash on October 19, 1987 when the Dow Jones Average fell 23 per cent in just one day, which remains the largest one-day decline ever.

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... 2d85eb08f2