vested
CICC Sees Solid Recovery for BABA-SW (09988.HK) Key Biz w/ Strong ProfitCICC noted in a report that BABA-SW (09988.HK) is expected to report a solid recovery in its key businesses and a strong profit performance.
The broker forecasted its revenue for
1FQ24 to grow 9% YoY to RMB225 billion, 1.5% above consensus, mainly due to palatable performance in China commerce and international commerce.
The broker also expected its
adjusted EBITA to grow 16% YoY to RMB39.9 billion in the last financial quarter, mainly because of effective expense control in all business segments.
CICC expected BABA's domestic retail GMV and customer management revenue (CMR) to both grow 7% YoY in 1FQ24, attributing the overall positive growth rate to the company's adjustments in price power, content and live streaming, in addition to a low YoY base.
QM data showed DAU growth of 7.6% YoY from April to May for Taobao Tmall, with positive YoY growth in transactions during the 618 festival.
Considering the not-so-low base of 618, the broker judged that BABA is expected to continue its positive GMV and CMR growth trend in the second half of the year.
CICC estimated BABA's China commerce EBITA profit to be RMB48.3 billion in 1FQ24.
Cainiao Express is expected to mainly rely on the integration of Danniao's existing last-mile delivery network capabilities to provide services, and the overall investment is expected to be manageable.
The broker expected BABA's local life and international business segments to have a loss reduction under the new spending approach, with their EBITA losses forecasted at RMB2.8 billion and RMB0.9 billion respectively in 1FQ24, a further reduction in losses YoY.
The broker maintained its Outperform rating on BABA and its price target of $137, which is 12x its non-GAAP P/E ratio for FY24.
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN
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