Earnings (General News) 02 (Oct 16 - Dec 25)

[winston]

When it comes to earnings, 'Analysts are still in La La Land'

"Analysts are still in La La Land," says TheMacroCompass.com founder and CEO Alfonso Peccatiello.

According to FactSet, analysts performing a bottom-up analysis of S&P 500 earnings this year have written down earnings per share (EPS) expectations by 3.8%, from $230.33 to $221.50.

But this may only be the beginning of an earnings re-rating cycle to the downside.

"I expect earnings to drop 15% to 20% from where we stand today," says Peccatiello.

Peccatiello is quick to point out that such a drop would be consistent with — if not slightly below — the median 29% earnings decline experienced during the recessions of the last five decades.

Matt Maley, managing director and equity strategist at Miller Tabak, points out that top-down estimates for the same S&P 500 earnings are pointing to $200 per share — which is about 10% down from the aforementioned bottom-up consensus of $221.50 per share.

Malley finds S&P 500 valuations very hard to believe at 18 times forward earnings.

"I'm sorry, but 18 times earnings is not something we have unless you're getting outsized zero interest rates or outsized QE programs," he says, noting that the forward value of the S&P 500 dropped below 15 in every recession since World War II.

"[I]f earnings are going to have to come down, [stocks have] further to fall," says Maley.

Source: Yahoo Finance

[winston]

1Q US Earnings

Goldman Sachs says the approaching US earnings season is expected to be the gloomiest since the first year of the pandemic.

Analyst consensus expectations are for S&P 500 earnings-per-share to fall 7% in the first quarter from a year earlier, marking the sharpest decline since the third quarter of 2020 and a low point in the profit cycle, the bank’s strategists wrote in an investor note.

Source: Bloomberg

[winston]

1Q Earnings

The Information Technology sector is expected to report the third-largest (year-over-year) earnings decline of all eleven sectors at -15.0%...

At the sector level, the Information Technology and Industrials sectors have the highest number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance for the first quarter at 27 and 16, respectively.

Combined, these two sectors account for more than half (43) of all the companies in the S&P 500 issuing negative EPS guidance for the first quarter (78).

So, we have tech earnings estimates going down at the same time that tech stock prices have been headed up.

Source: Fact Set

[behappyalways]

If fed is correct in predicting recession in later 2023, then the earnings expectations for 3q and 4q 2023 will have to revised down much lower....


https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 2483756033

[winston]

US: 1Q Earnings

Based on the latest data from FactSet, the S&P 500 is anticipated to report an average 6.8% drop in earnings growth in the first quarter of 2023.

That follows up the 4.6% decline in earnings growth in the fourth quarter of 2022.

As with economic growth, two-straight quarters of negative earnings growth signals that many of the biggest S&P 500 companies are facing a recession in profits.

However, I’m a bit skeptical that we’re heading into an earnings recession.

The fact is the U.S. dollar weakened in the first quarter, and you may recall that half of the S&P 500’s sales come from outside of the U.S. So, all those big multinational companies that typically have their profits pinched by a strong U.S. dollar actually benefited from a weaker dollar to start the year.

I suspect many of these companies could post better-than-expected results in the coming weeks.

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

1Q Earnings

The first quarter earnings season for the S&P 500 is off to a better start relative to the last two quarters.

However, both the number of companies reporting positive EPS surprises and the magnitude of these earnings surprises are below their 5- year averages.

The index is reporting higher earnings for the first quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the quarter.

On the other hand, the index is still reporting the largest year-over-year decline in earnings since Q2 2020.

Overall, 18% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q1 2023 to date. Of these companies, 76% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 77% but above the 10-year average of 73%.

In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 5.8% above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 8.4% and below the 10-year average of 6.4%.

In short, earnings are down, but aren’t down as much as had been previously expected. Of course, remember, we’ve only seen reports from 18% of companies in the S&P. So, plenty more to come.

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

1Q Earnings

So far, 53% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 results.

The good news? 79% have beaten estimates.

The bad news? Estimates had been lowered sharply.

Currently, Q1 S&P 500 earnings are expected to fall -3.7% from one year ago.

On the plus side, that’s better than the -6.7% change expected on March 31, according to FactSet.

Source: The Street

[winston]

1Q Results

So far, 85% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 results and 79% have beaten estimates.

In March, S&P 500 earnings were expected to fall 6.7% from last year in Q1.

Thanks to beats we’re currently looking at just a 2.2% drop, according to FactSet.

Source: The Street

[behappyalways]

"The Worst Is Now Behind Us": Q1 Earnings Season Much Better Than Feared
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/worst ... ter-feared

[winston]

1Q Earnings

With the first-quarter earnings season drawing to a close, the profits of S&P 500 companies are estimated to have dropped 3.7% on average, compared to a year ago.

While data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence shows that 78% of firms surpassed forecasts, that’s less impressive than it sounds, given analysts had slashed their expectations before the season kicked off.

More crucially, it was the second straight quarter of earnings declines for corporate America.

Bearish earnings forecasts now centre around the April to June period, for which a 7.3% profit slump is penciled in, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

Source: Bloomberg