History says the Federal Reserve’s high-speed interest-rate hikes may well tip the US into recession in 2023. Few will be surprised if spiraling natural-gas prices do the same for Europe. The double whammy of Covid Zero and a property slump threatens to bring China’s economy to a near standstill.
And in an extreme downside scenario, all those things happen at once. That could wipe out some $5 trillion in global output, compared with more upbeat forecasts at the start of this year,
There are positive surprises that could stop the rot next year. The Fed might pull off the fabled soft landing with the labor market proving resilient. Warm weather could spare Europe a recession. China may opt for an early exit from lockdowns.
Source: Bloomberg
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bad-wors ... 03548.html