Global Economic Data & News 03 (May 22 - Dec 26)

[winston]

Economists Think They Can See Recession Coming—for a Change

by James Mackintosh

Recession in Europe and the U.K. is already the average of economic predictions, while the U.S. average forecast for next year is growth of a miserly 0.2%, according to Consensus Economics, the third lowest since 1989.

The regular Wall Street Journal survey finds economists think there is a 63% chance of recession in the next year.

Just because economists are convinced of their predictions doesn’t mean they are right, of course.

Source: WSJ

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/9530cdc5-43 ... n-see.html

[winston]

Citi warns 'rolling recessions' will shake global economy in 2023

by Brian Sozzi

"We see growth [in China] accelerating as the authorities soften the zero-Covid policy".

"Still, excluding China, global growth next year will be running close to some definitions of global recession.

Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-rec ... 28461.html

[winston]

World economy heads for one of its worst years in three decades

The world economy is facing one of its worst years in the three decades as the energy shocks unleashed by the war in Ukraine continue to reverberate, according to Bloomberg Economics.

In a new analysis, economist Scott Johnson forecasts growth of just 2.4% in 2023. That’s down from an estimated 3.2% this year and the lowest — excluding the crisis years of 2009 and 2020 — since 1993.

However, the headline figure is likely to mask diverging fortunes, with the euro area starting 2023 in recession and the US ending the year in one. By contrast, China is projected to expand more than 5%, boosted by a faster-than-expected end to its zero-tolerance Covid strategy and support for its crisis-hit property market.

Differences will also be on display when it comes to monetary policy after a year in which central banks “dashed toward restrictive territory in a pack,” Johnson wrote.

“In the US, with wage gains set to keep inflation above target, we think the Fed is headed toward a terminal rate of 5%, and will stay there till 1Q24. In the euro area, meanwhile, a more rapid decline in inflation will mean a lower terminal rate and the possibility of cuts at the end of 2023.”

In China, where authorities are torn between a desire to support the recovery and concern about the weakness of the currency, “limited” rate cuts are on the cards.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/g ... ee-decades

[behappyalways]

英國步上日本後塵"失落的十年"? 能源漲四成 歐洲縮衣節食PMI跌到榮枯線下 中防疫放鬆景氣谷低翻?｜20221208｜@inewsplus
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zmxQeg4Rbx4

[behappyalways]

Bad for Singapore too


歷史的風向變了！張忠謀談「全球化已死」陳鳳馨：台灣是最大受害者【Yahoo TV】風向龍鳳配
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dklYtuyZFtE

[behappyalways]

Inflation in the West forces Vietnam factory lay-offs
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lSSSabfafXc

[behappyalways]

22.12.20【豐富│東南西北龍鳳配】Pt.1 連續五年GDP成長5%？中國辦得到嗎？
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=o4GG3CbXyJ4

[winston]

World economy is headed for a recession in 2023, researcher says

by Philip Aldrick

The global economy surpassed US$100 trillion for the first time in 2022 but will stall in 2023 as policy makers continue their fight against soaring prices.

The International Monetary Fund warned in October that more than a third of the world economy will contract and there is a 25% chance of global GDP growing by less than 2% in 2023, which it defines as a global recession.

The shifting balance of power will see the East Asia and Pacific region account for over a third of global output by 2037, while Europe’s share shrinks to less than a fifth.

China is now not set to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy until 2036 at the earliest — six years later than expected.

India will become the third US$10 trillion economy in 2035 and the world’s third largest by 2032

The UK will remain the world’s sixth largest economy, and France seventh, over the next 15 years but Britain is no longer set to grow faster than European peers due to “an absence of growth oriented policies and the lack of a clear vision of its role outside of the European Union.”

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/649590

[winston]

Economic recovery, friendshoring and other trends set to dominate in 2023

Optimism is starting to shine through as China pivots away from ‘zero Covid’, inflation eases and interest rate increases abate.

Worrying trends such as ageing populations and high healthcare and energy costs remain, but there is reason to believe this optimism is more than wishful thinking

by James David Spellman

Macroeconomic trends matter – lower debt, scarce energy, disruptive technologies and costly health care.

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... 125fb42442

[behappyalways]

World Bank Warns Global Economy "Perilously Close To Falling Into Recession"
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/wor ... -recession