Earnings (General News) 02 (Oct 16 - Dec 25)

[winston]

3Q Earnings

FactSet: The S&P 500 is expected to report (year over-year) earnings growth of 27.6% for the third quarter.

Given that most S&P 500 companies report actual earnings above estimates, what is the likelihood the index will report actual growth in earnings of 27.6% for the quarter?

Based on the 5-year average improvement in earnings growth during each earnings season due to companies reporting positive earnings surprises, it is likely the index will report earnings growth of nearly 35% for the third quarter, which would be the third consecutive quarter of (year-over-year) earnings growth above 30%.

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2021 (with 56% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 82% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 75% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.

Earnings Growth: For Q3 2021, the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 36.6%. If 36.6% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the third-highest (year-over-year) earnings growth rate reported by the index since 2010.

And here’s what FactSet is anticipating for the end of the year:

Analysts also expect earnings growth of more than 20% for the fourth quarter and earnings growth of more than 40% for the full year.

These above average growth rates are due to a combination of higher earnings for 2021 and an easier comparison to weaker earnings in 2020 due to the negative impact of COVID-19 on a number of industries.

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

3Q Earnings

According to FactSet, 89% of the S&P 500 companies have reported, with analysts expecting 40% year-over-year growth for the end of 2021.

81% of the companies that have reported beat expectations. That's good, but a high beat ratio isn't especially meaningful this year as analysts continue to adjust to the disruptions since COVID.

The biggest gains in revenue and earnings have been in the energy sector, which is great for oil investors, but it's also a risk we need to put on our radar. Higher gas prices have a big impact on consumer spending. Having that happen in the all-important fourth quarter is really bad timing.

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

3Q Earnings

You may recall that in the second quarter, S&P 500 earnings grew more than 90% year-over-year and revenue rose more than 25% year-over-year.

According to FactSet, for the third quarter, S&P 500 earnings are estimated to increase 39.1% year-over-year and revenue is expected to climb 17.3% year-over-year.

So, while earnings growth is decelerating a bit, the third-quarter earnings season is nothing to sneeze at.

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

Fourth quarter 2021 earnings

From FactSet:

As of (12/17/21), the S&P 500 is expected to report (year-over-year) earnings growth of 21.3%, compared to the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate of 20.9% on September 30.

If 21.3% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the fourth straight quarter of year-over-year earnings growth above 20%.

The unusually high growth rate is due to a combination of higher earnings for Q4 2021 and a comparison to weaker earnings in Q4 2020 due to the negative impact of COVID-19 on a number of industries.

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

4Q Earnings

According to Zacks Research, the average estimate for earnings growth in the fourth quarter is 19% on a revenue increase of 11.6%.

Factset's estimates are a little higher but mostly in line with Zacks. Those numbers are good, and we don't think the market will disappoint.

However, what matters the most this quarter is the outlook for the rest of 2022.

The biggest risk to the market is a contraction in earnings growth later this year.

Estimates for the first quarter are positive but have fallen over the last month and if companies report a more negative outlook than expected, we may adjust our view and deploy alternative strategies.

Source: Trading Opportunities

[winston]

4Q Earnings

Now that we have a few more reports under our belt, it looks likely that earnings will be up 24% in the fourth quarter.

These estimates are always in flux. And the latest data suggest the number could be even higher.

For this, here’s FactSet, which is the go-to data analytics company used by the pros:

Based on the five-year average improvement in earnings growth during each earnings season due to companies reporting positive earnings surprises, it is likely the (S&P 500) index will report earnings growth of nearly 30% for the fourth quarter, which would be the fourth consecutive quarter of (year-over-year) earnings growth at or above 25%.

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

2022 Earnings

S&P 500 companies are on track to report about 45% earnings growth for calendar year 2021, according to FactSet, but those year-over-year growth numbers come off a base of low 2020 earnings during the pandemic lockdowns.

Looking ahead to 2022, analysts expect 9.4% S&P 500 earnings growth.

The S&P 500's forward price-earnings ratio of about 22 is already above its five-year average of 18.5, and investors anticipate aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes this year.

If earnings growth falls short of market expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe.

Source: Yahoo Finance

[behappyalways]

Raw material costs plus wage increases will probably eat up company profit margin....



Wall Street's Most Bearish Analyst Warns Of "Calamitous" Collapse In First-Half Earnings
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wall- ... f-earnings

[winston]

FactSet: As of last Friday, with 56% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results, 76% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive earnings per share surprise.

And 77% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.

Source: Investor Place