Eleven states require automakers sell a certain percentage of zero-emissions vehicles by 2025. If they can't, the automakers have to buy regulatory credits from another automaker that meets those requirements -- such as Tesla, which exclusively sells electric cars.
It's a lucrative business for Tesla -- bringing in $3.3 billion over the course of the last five years, nearly half of that in 2020 alone.
The $1.6 billion in regulatory credits it received last year far outweighed Tesla's net income of $721 million -- meaning Tesla would have otherwise posted a net loss in 2020.
Tesla is larger than the combined market values of the world’s 10 largest auto manufacturers.
In 2020 alone, Short-Sellers lost $40 billion betting against the stock.
Tesla and its stock grapple with five meaningful challenges:
1. Intensifying competition
2. Withering revenues from regulatory credits
3. Rising input costs
4. Short-squeeze “fuel” running low
5. Overheated “multiple expansion”
Of these three factors, intensifying competition is probably the most serious.
Already, the Volkswagen Group is making nearly half as many battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) as Tesla, and the German auto titan expects to surpass Tesla’s production volumes by the end of this year.
First, one important revenue stream may dwindle to a trickle … or dry up completely: regulatory credits.
During the last 12 months, Tesla booked $1.58 billion of revenue from selling environmental “regulatory credits” to other auto manufacturers. If not for that helpful windfall, the $721 million profit Tesla reported in 2020 would have been an $860 million loss.
Second, the prices of the main metals that make up a BEV are soaring.
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