Copper 02 (Nov 12 - Dec 25)

[winston]

Copper heads for historic squeeze with China's demand red-hot

Evidence of a looming supply squeeze is mounting on the London Metal Exchange, where inventories are at their lowest levels in almost 15 years.

Source: Financial Review

[winston]

Copper export recovery stumbles for the world’s biggest supplier

by James Attwood

(Sept 8): The biggest copper-producing nation just offered further insight into why markets have been tightening of late.

Chile, which had managed to maintain production near pre-pandemic levels, reported copper shipments of US$2.76 billion for August, an 11% drop from July, according to trade data released Monday by the country’s central bank. That’s the steepest decline since January.

While copper watchers are more focused on volume than revenue given that changes in the latter also reflect price moves, average copper futures in August were slightly higher than July. That indicates an even steeper drop in August production when the statistics agency discloses it later this month. Chile accounts for a quarter of global copper output.

To be sure, exports can also depend on shipping schedules and the August decline may prove to be a blip. But confirmation that the country’s giant mines are struggling to maintain normal production levels because of virus-fighting measures may give more legs to a rally that’s already taken prices to two-year highs.

Comex inventories have fallen for 17 straight days, the longest run of draw-downs in more than a year, while lower treatment and refining charges are a sign that miners are struggling to keep up with demand from smelters.

“The imbalance between the limited supply of overseas copper concentrate and healthy demand from China’s refineries may continue in the second half as Covid-19 disrupts mining operations in South America,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Yi Zhu wrote last week.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... t-supplier

[winston]

China’s Switch To Renewables Will Drive Copper Demand

by Sachin Patel

China’s manufacturing and construction sectors, which consume around half of the world’s copper, have posted a strong recovery from the COVID-19 shutdowns earlier in the year.

For the first six months of 2020, copper imports totaled 2.84 million, a 25 percent increase on the same period of 2019, despite the disruption caused by COVID-19.

The world’s two largest copper producers, Chile and Peru, continue to face severe COVID-19 outbreaks.

In Peru, copper output fell by 42 percent in May, while Chile’s state-run miner Codelco has temporarily closed its largest smelter and refinery and suspended construction at its flagship mine.

China is the world’s biggest importer of copper by some margin, accounting for 43 percent of global copper ore imports – more than three times the level of Japan in second place.

It is an important component in energy-efficient generators and renewable energy systems, with solar and wind energy installations using larger volumes of copper than conventional thermal power generators.

Copper is an important component in electric vehicles, used in the batteries, windings, and copper rotors of electric motors, as well as in the wiring and charging infrastructure.

At an average of 83kg of copper, the typical electric vehicle uses nearly four times as much of the metal as a conventional car.

Source: Emerging Market Views

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-sw ... 41171.html

[investar]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/18/world-e ... aring.html

Copper/Iron Ore/ Coking Coal/ Silver/...

[investar]

https://www.mining.com/web/chinas-new-i ... e-russell/

In copper, China has a far more important role, however, being responsible for about just under half the world’s production of copper and copper alloys semis, the industry term for the first-stage products produced from refined copper.

The past few months could be a case in point. China has been vacuuming up copper, boosting the price at a time when demand elsewhere in the world was looking sickly as the virus spread.

Higher prices in China and lower prices elsewhere would give traders, producers and consumers opportunities to hedge, and would also likely lead to a more transparent market in China.

The new INE contract may not completely resolve the issue of so-called dark inventories in China, or copper stocks not reported to any exchange, but it should boost market knowledge of trade flows and strengthen the process of price discovery.

[winston]

Copper is a major component in EVs used in electric motors, batteries, inverters, wiring and in charging stations.

A pure electric vehicle can contain more than a mile of copper wiring in its stator windings.

Electric vehicle sales growth will increase demand for copper by 1,700 kilotons by 2027.

This explosive growth makes sense when you contextualize the amount of copper needed for electric car manufacturing.

The Copper Development Association reports that conventional cars have 18-49 pounds of copper.

With that as a baseline, what's your guess as to how much copper is in a hybrid electric vehicle?

It's about 85 pounds.

A plug-in hybrid electric vehicle?

That bumps it to 132 pounds.

And if we look at a pure, battery electric vehicle, the amount of copper used jumps to 183 pounds.

Given this 273%-916% increase in copper needed for electric vehicles compared to conventional cars, it's easy to see why demand is poised to soar as our world continues to move away from gas-fueled cars.

Now, what's key here is that while demand for copper is surging, supply isn't there to meet the need.

Source: Copper.​com

[winston]

Metals – Copper
Potential Ban On Australia Copper Imports Will Support China Copper Miners

An import ban on copper ore and concentrates is expected to be introduced, following trade escalations between China and Australia.

In 1H20, 4.4% of China’s total copper ore and concentrates were imported from Australia.

However, 55% of Australia’s total copper ore and concentrates exports were shipped to China.

China’s copper ore and concentrates import volume was up 34.7% mom in Sep 20, thanks to strong recovery in domestic downstream demand.

Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: Zijin Mining.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... 5d890e1c48

[investar]

Copper now also good to protect for Covid19

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british- ... -1.5797094

[investar]

A new multi-year high for copper


Maybe the new Chinese copper futures contract is influencing a bit?

https://smallcaps.com.au/china-first-st ... er-market/

[investar]

Again a new high for copper.

Goldman Sachs now expects all time highs in 2022 for copper:

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3 ... -2022.html