by winston » Sat Mar 11, 2023 9:49 am
not vested
Mastercard
The first smart stock to buy if a Fed-induced recession were to materialize is a cyclical financial stock: Mastercard (MA).
Recessions since the end of World War II have lasted only 2 to 18 months. Comparatively, economic expansions draw out for multiple years. Mastercard is a direct beneficiary of the natural expansion of the U.S. and global economies.
Additionally, Mastercard is poised to benefit from a reversal in the U.S. personal saving rate. Though the personal saving rate of 4.7% in January 2023 was higher than the 2.7% registered this past June, it’s still hovering around a 15-year low. When consumers have less money saved, they tend to turn to plastic. Fewer cash transactions would be a positive for Mastercard.
Investors should be aware that Mastercard has the coveted No. 2 position in credit card network purchase volume locked down in the United States. Though it trails rival Visa by nearly 29 percentage points, having almost 24% of U.S. credit card purchase volume to itself is a significant long-term growth driver.
What’s more, Mastercard, like Visa, has entirely avoided becoming a lender. While this means giving up interest income and fee potential during periods of expansion, it also allows Mastercard to avoid the direct pain that loan losses cause during a recession.
Not having to set aside loan-loss provisions means Mastercard has no capital constraints during a recession or in the period when a new bull market is forming. In short, it’s going to bounce back more quickly from a downturn than many of its peers.
Source: Daily Trade Alert
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"