Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 24)

Global Economic Data & News 02 (Nov 15 - Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Wed May 29, 2019 2:46 pm

Emerging Markets Can't Evade a China Slowdown
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... emium-asia
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Tue May 12, 2020 2:21 pm

Emerging economies burn through $240 bln in reserves, drain seen continuing -BofA

LONDON, May 11 (Reuters) - Leading emerging countries have [b]burned through $240 billion [/b]in foreign exchange reserves over the past two months, Bank of America said on Monday, as central banks look to prop up their currencies and economies in the face of COVID-19.

The drain was likely to continue albeit at a slower pace, Bank of America added in a note citing reserves data for 31 states.

China, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Turkey, had all seen the biggest total drop in reserves, the bank said.

Turkey and Egypt had seen particularly large percentage declines, it added. Turkey and Romania also stood out as their official reserves did not fully cover short-term external debt over 12 months, the note said.

"The drain of reserves is likely to continue, though more slowly, during what looks to be a disappointing recovery in global and EM growth," David Hauner at BofA wrote in the note.

"After an initial bounce in activity after the opening of lockdowns, several factors are likely to restrain the recovery: high debt, corporate defaults, inefficient labour markets, de-globalisation and China-U.S. tensions."

The bank said that it was remarkable how little some other emerging market countries, including Russia, had spent of their reserves in percentage terms.

Instead, it added, they had built up credibility by allowing their currencies to adjust without much intervention, and had instead focused on cutting interest rates and in many cases buying government bonds.

Russia's central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina said on Friday the bank will consider cutting its key rate by 100 basis points in June, opening the door for a bigger cut than the market had expected.

Source: Reuters

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/his-f ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 21)

Postby winston » Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:58 am

I Urge You to Own These Stocks Today

by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

The dollar is in a major decline.

A falling dollar takes a huge weight off these markets. That’s because emerging market companies often hold a lot of debt in U.S. dollars.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rallied more than 150% from 1987 to its peak in 1990.

Thanks to the Fed’s easy-money policies, the dollar is already falling. It’s down double digits since March. And that’s likely the start of a multiyear downtrend.

Emerging markets should be one of the biggest winners as this trend plays out. And I urge you to own them today if you don’t already.


Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2020/09/24/ ... cks-today/
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 21)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:03 am

Emerging Markets on Edge as Goldman and Deutsche Bank Flag Risks

by Netty Ismail, Karl Lester M. Yap and Sydney Maki

Manufacturing reports from China, India, Brazil and South Africa, that are being published this week are potentially less decisive for investors than the global sentiment toward risky assets.

The wave of central-bank stimulus and investors’ hunger for yield had lifted developing-nation dollar debt for five months.


Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/emerging ... 34446.html
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 21)

Postby winston » Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:32 pm

BlackRock's Fink 'pretty bearish' on emerging markets

by Rodrigo Campos & Ross Kerber

He said the Covid-19 pandemic is taxing emerging economies and their health systems more than developed countries, de-globalization is hurting the commodity-dependent countries and the group is more sensitive to effects of climate change.

Outside these global macro trends, a lack of trust in EM governments is further hurting the asset class.


Source: Reuters

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... ng-markets
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 21)

Postby winston » Fri Feb 05, 2021 2:39 pm

Emerging Markets May Already Have Reached Their Peak for 2021, Morgan Stanley Says

by Steve Goldstein

Morgan Stanley strategists, led by Jonathan Garner, say the MSCI emerging market index already topped its year-end target of 1,330, though it has fallen back subsequently.

Flows to the region hit an all-time high last week.

“Euphoric” fund inflows have invariably been associated with market tops, and vice versa, they note.

Source: Barron's

https://www.barrons.com/articles/emergi ... eid=yhoof2
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 21)

Postby winston » Sun Nov 14, 2021 8:34 am

Headwinds for emerging markets

By CECILIA KOK

Most traders are currently pricing in between two and three interest-rate increases of 25 basis points (bps) each by the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) for the second half of 2022.

A major surprise to the financial markets could trigger a capital flight, and thus huge currency depreciation in some EM economies.

Besides the risk of a more hawkish Fed, Nomura says, other factors that could result in more frequent EM crises in the years ahead include middle-income trap; negative real rates; twin-deficit risk; and crypto challenges.

Despite the various risks and uncertainties, Nomura acknowledges there will be some EM economies that will be fairly resilient.

There are 10, however, that will be more vulnerable, and these include Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Hungary, Romania, Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia and the Philippines.


Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... ng-markets
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 21)

Postby winston » Fri Dec 17, 2021 3:19 pm

Kenneth Rogoff Warns of ‘Accident Waiting to Happen’ in Emerging Markets

by Sydney Maki

A full percentage-point of Fed rate increases next year could shut some countries out of markets, further straining already vulnerable fiscal situations.

He pointed to Egypt, Pakistan and Ghana as nations already battling large debt obligations, narrower market access and, in some cases, double-digit inflation.



Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kenneth- ... 48837.html
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 22)

Postby winston » Tue Dec 28, 2021 5:14 pm

Emerging Markets Seen Rising in 2022, But Not Until July

by Srinivasan Sivabalan, Lilian Karunungan and Karl Lester M. Yap

As for specifics, they are looking for a Chinese equity rally and gains in local-currency bonds in countries such as Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary.

“2021 has been a year when developed markets outperformed emerging markets in economic growth, and this needs to reverse".

MS - Big bets: Chinese equities, higher-yielding currencies including Brazilian real, Mexican peso, Russian ruble

GS - Big bets: Eastern European currencies, Chinese stocks

BNP - Big bets: China high-yield bonds, external debt in West Africa, local bonds in Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary

Pictet - Big bets: Bank stocks, ASEAN reopening opportunities

Finisterre Capital - Big bets: Local-currency bonds, external debt of oil producers such as Oman, Angola, Iraq, Ecuador, external debt of stressed countries such as Sri Lanka, Tunisia

Fidelity - Big bets: Indonesian equities, Chinese stocks and high-yield debt, central European currencies

Nuveen - Big bets: Hard-currency sovereign and corporate bonds, local bonds


Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/emerging ... 00287.html
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Re: Emerging Markets 03 (Sep 16 - Dec 22)

Postby winston » Tue Jul 05, 2022 3:31 pm

Foreign Investors Drained $40 Billion From Emerging Asia Last Quarter, and It Could Get Worse

by Ishika Mookerjee and Marcus Wong

The steepest selling was in tech-heavy Taiwan and South Korea and energy-importing India, while foreign investors also made supersized outflows from Indonesian bonds.

“We would expect investors to remain cautious toward export-oriented economies and markets with high valuation under the current backdrop. We expect the outlook to remain uncertain for the technology sector globally on rising recession risks.”


Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/supersiz ... 00551.html
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