Risks Out There 06 (May 20 - Dec 24)

Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:43 pm

Apple more valuable than the entire FTSE 100
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53996191
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 06, 2020 8:47 am

DHS Braces For 'Potential EMP Attack' As Presidential Election Nears

by Tyler Durden

Source: Zero Hedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... newsletter
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:00 pm

JPMorgan Says $200 Billion May Flow Out of Stocks This Quarter

by Joanna Ossinger

(Bloomberg) -- Pension and sovereign wealth funds are set to offload about $200 billion of equities as they rebalance their portfolios, posing a risk for global shares, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

This would be the most negative quarterly adjustment since the pandemic hit, strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said Tuesday.

The overall figure stems from calculations spanning U.S. defined-benefit pension portfolios, Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund and Norway’s oil fund.

“This negative rebalancing flow becomes even more problematic given this month’s sharp decline in equity market depth,” they wrote in a note.

Institutions tend to adjust portfolios each quarter to maintain their target asset allocation. A gauge of global stocks has climbed about 10% since the end of June, exceeding returns from fixed income and pointing to the need for some funds to adjust their investment mix back to preferred limits.

The revision is one of many risks facing the equity market after a powerful rally from lows in March stalled this month.

Others include stretched valuations for some segments, a choppy economic recovery, potential volatility around the U.S. election and reliance on central bank support of financial markets.

Still, the JPMorgan strategists are sanguine overall on the outlook for stocks.

“For the medium to long term, we still see plenty of upside given still low overall equity positioning,” they said. “A retreat in equity and risk markets over the coming weeks would likely represent a buying opportunity.”

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan ... 59813.html
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:26 pm

Wall Street Strategist Who Called Huge 2020 Run Says Stock Market Could Be in Big Trouble

by Lee Jackson

Source: 24/7 Wall Street

https://247wallst.com/investing/2020/09 ... SEP172020a
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Sat Sep 19, 2020 10:24 am

30 Reasons Why Stocks May Fall Further

by Eric Parnell, CFA

Summary
Stocks are increasingly dealing with technical resistance.
Fundamental weakness is a problem that dates back long before the onset of COVID-19.
80 billion reasons why stocks will eventually bottom and rally.

Investors are well served to keep a close eye on 3,335 on the S&P 500 and 11,180 on the NASDAQ 100 in the coming days, for any decisive move below these levels could be the start of a much sharper move lower.

Corporate earnings on the S&P 500 Index peaked on a quarterly basis at $41.38 per share on an operating earnings basis and $36.36 per share on a GAAP earnings basis nearly two years ago now in 2018 Q3.

For 80 billion represents the dollar amount of Treasury purchases that the U.S. Federal Reserve is carrying out each month as part of their ongoing market rescue program in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Stocks may want to fall for fundamental reasons, but when the buyer of last resort is effectively showing up in the marketplace with what averages out to be roughly $4 billion each and every trading day, this goes a long way in soothing investor nerves and juicing stock demand.

This is particularly true when traders also know that the same Fed can turn up the dial as high as $75 billion in daily Treasury purchases or more if it so chooses if things get unstable enough.


Source: Seeking Alpha

https://seekingalpha.com/article/437499 ... ent=link-7
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 22, 2020 12:49 pm

Will the Stock Market Crash Again? 5 Risk Factors to Watch

by John Divine

1. A "second wave" of the virus.
2. Prolonged labor market weakness.
3. Inadequate stimulus.
4. Market dynamics: high valuations and heavy concentration.
5. Political uncertainty.


Source: U.S.News & World Report

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-ma ... 51722.html
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:39 am

Here Are 4 Potential Hotspots Where The Next World War Could Erupt At Any Time

by Tyler Durden

1. Armenia | Azerbaijan
2. United States | Russia
3. China | India | South East Asia | Japan | United States
4. Greece | Turkey


Source: Zero Hedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... newsletter
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:27 am

Bond yield inching up.
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Oct 11, 2020 5:46 pm

1. Donald Trump decides to make China 'pay' for Covid19 by withdrawing from the trade agreement and adding tariffs(payment for the covid) in order to win votes for the coming election.

2. Stock markets start to focus on the surging Covid19 cases.

3. Bond yield continues to surge especially if next week US consumer price index continues to rise significantly. That would put pressure on stocks.

4. US election in a limbo, Donald Trump challenging the result.

5. Donald Trump is a sore loser, with Biden taking over in two months time, there is a lot of things that Donald Trump can do to leave some 'presents' for Biden. Punish China for example for indirectly causing him to lose since before the start of the year, no one was in doubt he was going to win but due to Covid19, his popularity plummets.
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Re: Risks Out There 05 (Feb 17 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:25 am

'Young and dumb' investors fueling 'nightmare' US stock valuations

At present, investors are paying 22 times forward earnings to purchase stocks on the S&P 500, 50 percent higher than the 10-year average valuations.

“They are buying bullish call options that expire inside two weeks. There was ($500 billion) of bullish call options bought in a four-week stretch by small retail traders”.

“In ’99 it was US$100 billion, in ’07, it was US$100 billion. That is what young, dumb investors are doing and when the market makers see those (call buying) out there, they sell that call to that person and they buy the stock”.


Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... valuations
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