Gundlach goes against crowdUnited States inflation will likely trough in the next several months but may rise above 2 percent next year, according to Jeffrey Gundlach.
It could
range from 2.25 percent to 2.4 percent in 2021, Gundlach said in a webcast for his flagship DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund.
Gundlach's view of sustained higher inflation runs counter to consensus. Inflation may temporarily rise above 2 percent in the second quarter of 2021 before retreating again in the following quarters, according to a Bloomberg survey of 51 economists.
While the US economy has not stayed above the target set by the Federal Reserve, there is an expectation in markets that widespread vaccine development and distribution will unleash spending and generate growth at a rapid pace.
The
underperformance of small caps might finally be ending, Gundlach said, pointing to the Russell 2000 relative to S&P 500. The move has been "pretty powerful already," he said.
The
copper-gold ratio suggests that 10-year Treasury yields should be higher. "Fundamentals do not support today's Treasury levels," he said.
And BBB spreads have tightened relative to Treasuries, which is not very different from 30-year Treasuries.
Source: Bloomberg
https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... inst-crowd
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