Demographics, Statistics etc.

Re: Demographics

Postby behappyalways » Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:26 am

2019.03.09【文茜世界周報】全球貧富不均惡化 衝擊各國政體穩定
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfwwOG7 ... -pKgdwMSAU
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Re: Demographics

Postby winston » Fri May 24, 2019 11:56 am

The Global X Millennials Thematic ETF ( MILN )

The Global X Millennials Thematic ETF is a thematic ETF with market cap of approximately USD 46.11 million and expense ratio of 0.5%.

The ETF provides exposure to companies that are determined to have significant revenue from the millennial generation's spending habits.

Spending categories include clothing, entertainment, travel, food, education, financial services, housing, and health.

“Millennials” refers to the U.S population born approximately between 1980 & 2000, aged 16 -35.

According to the research from Global X, millennials account for one quarter of the nation's population and are positioned to become a strong part of workforce within U.S economy.

75 percent of total workforce was accounted by Millennials. It is expected that there is USD 40 trillion transfer of wealth from baby boomer generation to Millennials.

To differential its behavior characteristics, millennials are tech savvy, socially connected and values experience.

MILN enables investors to access high growth potential through companies which benefit from millennial demand.

Suggested to buy at $24.16, target price $26.1, cut loss if drop below $23.50.

Source: Phillips
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Re: Demographics

Postby winston » Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:35 am

2019 UN World Population Report

1) World population continues to grow slightly, but the rate of global population growth is at the lowest level since at least 1950.

2) Global population growth rates are unevenly distributed. Developed nations (including the US, Japan, Western Europe) suffer from alarming declines in fertility rates, while developing countries are experiencing rapid population growth.

The 47 least developed countries in the world (mostly in Africa) are the fastest growing, and just NINE countries are expected to make up HALF of global population growth over the next three decades.

3) Global population is aging at an unprecedented rate. Last year, for the first time in recorded history, people aged 65 and older around the world outnumbered children under the age of 5.

In the United States, the Social Security Administration has already reported that its trust funds will run out of money in 15 years, AND that the worker-to-retiree ratio will fall below its minimum threshold this year.

And with the US grappling with the lowest fertility rate EVER recorded, this trend will only worsen.

Most of Europe is in a similar position, with spiraling costs and record low fertility rates. A number of countries (like Italy, Greece) have already been forced to make substantial pension reforms to avoid insolvency.

Even Russia had to implement an unpopular overhaul of its pension plan last October by raising the retirement age.

According to the UN report I mentioned earlier, Japan’s worker-to-retiree ratio is just 1.8! Remember, the US is in deep trouble at 2.7 workers per retiree. Japan’s ratio is significantly worse than that.

And to drive the point home, just look at some of the numbers:

- Japan has more people over the age of 80 than it has children under the age of 10.

- There are 2.85 million children aged 0 to 3 in Japan. But almost 5.2 million aged 95 or over.

- Japan’s biggest diaper maker (Unicharm) has been selling more adult diapers than baby diapers since 2011.

Ten years ago the US worker-to-retiree ratio was 3.2. And the Social Security Administration projected that its trust funds would remain solvent through 2037. So the crisis point was 28 years away.

Ten years later, the ratio has fallen to 2.7 workers per retiree. And the trust funds are expected to run out of money in 2034. So now the problem is only 15 years away.

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Re: Demographics

Postby winston » Fri Jul 05, 2019 5:32 pm

US Elderly Population

For the first time in history, according to population scientists, the number of people aged 65 and older will outnumber children younger than 5 worldwide by 2020. That's next year.

One out of every five Americans -- approximately 72 million people -- will be 65 years or older by 2030. That's nearly double the number of older Americans in 2000.

Naturally, as a population ages, the workforce becomes smaller and produces less. That's
especially true in places where fertility rates aren't enough to replace the outgoing workers.

Meanwhile, the younger generations that are here have much different consuming patterns than their parents -- and that's causing huge swings for thousands of companies ... both on the up- and downside.

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Re: Demographics

Postby behappyalways » Sun Jul 28, 2019 4:53 pm

Have no girls been born in 132 villages in India?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-49109767
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Re: Demographics

Postby winston » Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:56 am

A huge demographic shift meets a cash-gushing investment vehicle

10,000 Baby Boomers are retiring every day (hitting 65 years of age).

Right now, that means there are roughly 40 million Americans aged over 65. That's about 13% of the population.

By 2050, that number will more than double to around 88.5 million.


Of our elderly population, about 5.7 million Americans are over age 85.

By 2050, this number will more than triple to 19 million.

And a full 50% of them will need assistance with daily functioning which, in most cases, means an assisted living facility or a skilled nursing home.

The cost for those services can run anywhere from $60,000 to $180,000 per year.


The bottom line: we have a massive and growing demand for health-related services for our Boomers. This will include retirement communities, assisted living facilities, nursing homes, and mixed use planned communities that market, in part, to senior citizens.


Healthcare REITS: Welltower (WELL), Ventas (VTR), and HCP Inc (HCP).


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Re: Demographics

Postby winston » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:19 am

Millenials

With 73 million people, Millennials now account for 22% of the U.S. population and have overtaken the baby boomers.

The most widely used definition of a Millennial is someone born between 1981 and 1996. That puts them between 23 and 38 years old right now ...

What's more, they are at a similar point to the Boomers after World War II as they begin to form families and buy houses.

Millennials are different than prior generations -- most notably, they've delayed marriage and starting families, and many have continued living with their parents far longer than past generations.

Many Millennials rented or lived at home longer than previous generations. Even last year, 15% of Millennials still lived with their parents. At the same age, only 9% of Gen Xers lived with their parents.

With Millennials starting families, making more money than ever and starting to move more frequently, housing is my favorite way to profit from the country's largest generation.

iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF

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Re: Demographics

Postby behappyalways » Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:53 pm

Japan's fertility crisis even worse than before as births fall sharply
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/08/asia ... index.html
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Re: Demographics

Postby behappyalways » Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:27 am

2019.12.28【文茜世界周報】嬰兒潮將步入老年 美長照系統隱患現
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TqyXpPB ... AU&index=8
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Re: Demographics

Postby winston » Fri May 22, 2020 8:30 am

US Birth Rates

The CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics released some alarming data earlier this week that surprisingly had absolutely nothing to do with Covid for a change.

The report showed that the birthrate in the United States last year declined to its lowest level on record ever since the government began collecting data more than 110 years ago.

This new record low birth rate breaks the previous record set in 2018, which broke the previous record set in 2017, which broke the previous record set in 2016. . .

You get the idea. This has been a long-term issue: people just aren’t having babies anymore. And it’s not just in the Land of the Free.

Fertility rates are low all over the developed world-- far below the ‘population replacement level’ of around 2.2 children per mother.

(This is the number of children that demographers say will maintain a steady population.)

In the United States, the average number of births per mother is currently about 1.7. In Australia it’s also around 1.7. In Spain, it’s just 1.5. In Japan, 1.44. In Italy, 1.31. In South Korea, 0.92. And in Singapore, just 0.83.

In Brazil, for example, the average woman has 1.74 children, which is below the population replacement level. And the rate has been falling steadily for decades.

Even India’s birth rate has been declining, down to just 2.24-- less than half the level from the 1980s.

And these statistics were pre-Covid. It certainly stands to reason that with all the economic uncertainty and virus fears, people will delay having children, and potentially have fewer.

This is pretty normal in any economic crisis; according to IMF data, birth rates worldwide plunged following the Great Recession of 2008/2009.

Now, it’s not like a low fertility rate means that some country is going to vanish into the history books.

In Spain, the population declines by an average of just 0.21% per year. And Japan’s population declines by roughly 0.12% per year.

These are trivial numbers… unless you’re thinking about Social Security and national pension funds.

The idea behind most social security programs around the world is that everyone with a job gives up a portion of his/her wages to pay monthly benefits to people who are currently retired.

We do this for our entire careers, with the promise that, when we reach retirement age, the younger generations will pay for our benefits.

This scheme clearly requires a steadily rising population in order to be sustainable:

If you have 1 person receiving benefits today, you’d need 3-4 people paying taxes to support that single beneficiary.

After a few decades, those 3-4 would be retired, requiring around 10-15 workers to support them. And when those 10-15 people retire, you’d need 30-50 workers to support them.

In the US, for example, Social Security is funded almost exclusively by payroll taxes. So when tens of millions of people lose their jobs, payroll tax revenue declines, and Social Security runs a big deficit.

The program’s Trustees (which include the Treasury Secretary of the United States) write in their most recent annual report that Social Security’s trust funds will run out of money by 2035.

Again, though, that was pre-Covid. Financial crises tend to make these things a lot worse.

Back in 2007, the last year before the Great Recession, Social Security projected it would run out of money in 2041.

But the financial crisis took such a toll that, after it was over, they revised their projected insolvency date down to 2035.

But the Bipartisan Policy Center ran the numbers using Social Security’s own financial model. And according to their analysis, Social Security is now set to run out of money in 2029.

And options for Social Security are extremely limited; the government will either have to (a) radically increase payroll tax rates, and/or (b) make drastic cuts to the monthly benefit they’ve been promising people for decades.

Neither option is good, and most likely they’ll end up doing a combination of both. But not yet.

Source: Sovereign Man
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