Gary Shilling

[behappyalways]

Shilling: A U.S. Recession May Have Started This Quarter
https://www.financialsense.com/blog/191 ... ed-quarter

[behappyalways]

Get Ready for 1% Bond Yields
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... nd=opinion

[behappyalways]

Gary Shilling: Time to Start Shorting the S&P 500
https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2019/10/07 ... 0908070152

[behappyalways]

Gary Shilling: 4 Shocks That Could Upend the Market Expansion

1. Excessive Debt in China and among U.S. businesses, where BBB-rated corporate debt now comprises more than half of total issues outstanding

2. Trade War Escalation

3. U.S. Consumer Retrenchment and Deflation

4. Corporate Profits

Source: Think Advisor

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2019/12/27 ... 1128034037

[winston]

‘Don’t be fooled!’ A 40% drop could hit by next year after this bear-market rally fades, veteran economist warns

By Shawn Langlois

‘This looks like a bear market rally, similar to that in 1929-1930’

‘Don’t be fooled by the recent rebound in stocks; the investment scene is beginning to resemble the 1929 market crash and the early 1930s Great Depression.’

Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont- ... =home-page

[behappyalways]

The stock market is poised for a 40% drop, warns economist who says the current climate feels a lot like 1929
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s ... ewer_click

[winston]

This legendary market forecaster has warned of a stock-market crash and a recession for years.

Here are Gary Shilling's 14 best X posts since the pandemic.

by Theron Mohamed

Gary Shilling expects a 30% crash in stocks, a recession, and a commercial real estate collapse.

The veteran forecaster has been issuing dire predictions about markets and the economy for years.

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/legendar ... 01620.html

[winston]

Market prophet Gary Shilling expects S&P 500 returns to slump — and warns a recession could stretch into 2025

by Theron Mohamed

Investors should expect lower stock market returns in the future, Gary Shilling says.

The legendary forecaster cited slower economic growth, steep valuations and fading speculation.

Merrill Lynch's first chief economist said a recession appears likely and could extend into 2025.

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/market-p ... 06028.html

[winston]

Market veteran says US will see a recession by year end that could spark 30% drop in stock market — report

By Surin Murugiah

He saw a recession coming by the end of the year as the US job market continues to weaken.

That could be the final blow to the stock market rally fuelled by investor overconfidence, causing stocks to drop by as much as 30%, Shilling said.

Shilling pointed to the recent run-up in risky assets, such as stocks and cryptocurrency.

The labour market is weakening, with the unemployment rate sticking close to a two-year high in March.

Meanwhile, quit rates slumped to around 2% in March, a sign that workers are waking up to difficult hiring conditions and are less willing to leave their jobs than they were in the past, he said.

Companies have held onto more workers than they needed due to the shortage of labour that slammed employers during the pandemic.

Layoffs will escalate later this year, with unemployment peaking at 5%-7% as the economy continues to weaken.

The 2-10 Treasury yield curve, the bond market's most famous recession gauge, has been signalling a downturn since July 2022.

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, another gauge of economic strength, ticked lower in April.

Source: theedgemalaysia.com

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/710567