China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Re: China - Economic Data & News 16 (May 17 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Fri Mar 08, 2019 2:33 pm

China White Goods sector: Earnings to kick in post re-rating?

As mentioned in our earlier 21 Jan 2019 report, “Beneficiary of any stimulus measures”, since the start of this year, it has been increasingly apparent that the Chinese government will take steps to support the Chinese home appliances sector, including certain other sectors.

On 6 Mar, the NDRC mentioned that measures aimed to promote “recycling” in the automobiles and home appliance sectors are being drafted to encourage consumption of certain products such as new energy cars and environmentally friendly household appliances.

The government will also promote consumption by people in rural areas, enabling more of them to get access to e-commerce and high-quality products.

While investors are awaiting details of the measures to better ascertain the impact on companies, sentiment has clearly improved; share prices of stocks in the sector are have rallied YTD (Midea: +29%, Gree: +28%, Haier Electronics: +25%, Qingdao Haier: +21%) along with the feel-good factor of a US-China trade resolution.

Our preferred pick in the sector remains Haier Electronics [BUY; FV: HK$29.08], which is set to fully consolidate its water purifier business this year, while the Gooday Logistics spin-off in the medium term may serve as a catalyst.

Our preferred pick in the sector remains Haier Electronics [BUY; FV: HK$29.08].

Source: OCBC
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 16 (May 17 - Dec 18)

Postby behappyalways » Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:47 am

2019.03.09【文茜世界周報】應對增速下滑 大陸大規模降稅費2兆人民幣
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZgz6bY ... AU&index=4
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:12 am

Big defaulters highlight China risks

China's biggest default scares of 2019 have underscored both the risks and opportunities for investors as more of the nation's companies struggle to repay debt.

At least three large Chinese borrowers - Qinghai Provincial Investment, China Minsheng Investment, and Beijing Orient Landscape & Environment - missed bond-payment deadlines last month.

China needs to learn lessons from Japan's lost decade and control future levels of debt, advised the country's former central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan.

China's first batch of major official indicators this year are forecast to show an investment recovery that began in mid-2018 is set to continue, but the economic slowdown and trade war still undermine factory output and consumption.

In other news, the United States and China may be in the final weeks of discussions to ease their tariffs dispute, according to US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.

Source: The Standard
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:24 pm

The big flip
China may soon run its first annual current-account deficit in decades
The implications will be profound

THAT CHINA sells more to the world than it buys from it can seem like an immutable feature of the economic landscape. Every year for a quarter of a century China has run a current-account surplus (roughly speaking, the sum of its trade balance and net income from foreign investments).

This surplus has been blamed for various evils including the decline of Western manufacturing and the flooding of America’s bond market with the excess savings that fuelled the subprime housing bubble.

Yet the surplus may soon disappear. In 2019 China could well run its first annual current-account deficit since 1993. The shift from lender to borrower will create a knock-on effect, gradually forcing it to attract more foreign capital and liberalise its financial system.

China’s government is only slowly waking up to this fact. America’s trade negotiators, meanwhile, seem not to have noticed it at all. Instead of focusing on urging China to free its financial system, they are more concerned that China keep the yuan from falling. The result of this myopia is a missed opportunity for both sides.

China’s decades of surpluses reflected the fact that for years it saved more than it invested. Thrifty households hoarded cash. The rise of great coastal manufacturing clusters meant exporters earned more revenues than even China could reinvest. But now that has begun to change.

Consumers are splashing out on cars, smartphones and designer clothes. Chinese tourists are spending immense sums overseas (see article). As the population grows older the national savings rate will fall further, because more people in retirement will draw down their savings.

Whether or not China actually slips into deficit this year will be determined mostly by commodities prices. But the trend in saving and investment is clear: the country will soon need to adjust to a new reality in which deficits are the norm. That in turn means that China will need to attract net capital inflows—the mirror image of a current-account deficit.

To some extent this is happening. China has eased quotas for foreigners buying bonds and shares directly, and made it simpler for them to invest in mainland securities via schemes run by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Pension funds and mutual funds all over the world are considering increasing their exposure to China.

But the reforms remain limited. Ordinary Chinese citizens face restrictions on how much money they can take out. If many foreign investors tried to pull their money out of China at once it is not clear that they would be able to do so, an uncertainty that in turn may make them nervous about putting large sums in. China is terrified of financial instability.

A botched currency reform in 2015 caused widespread volatility. But the system the country is moving to, which treats locals and foreigners differently, promises to be leaky, corrupt and unstable.

Eventually, then, capital will need to flow freely in both directions across China’s borders. That is to be welcomed. People outside and inside China will benefit from being able to invest in more places. The need for freer capital flows will have the welcome side-effect of forcing China to reform its state-dominated financial system, not least so that it commands confidence among international investors. This in turn will mean that market forces play a bigger role in allocating capital in China.

You might expect America’s trade negotiators to welcome all of this, and urge China to free its financial system. Unfortunately they seem stuck in the past. Obsessed with the idea that China might depress its currency to boost exports, they are reportedly insisting it commit itself to a stable yuan. That is wrong-headed and self-defeating. Rather than fighting yesterday’s currency wars, America should urge China to prepare for the future.

Source: The Economist
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:11 pm

2019.03.16【文茜世界周報】新疆大規模結對認親 遭批非法監控民族清洗
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bhtgr7a ... AU&index=8


2019.03.16【文茜世界周報】不止新疆 大陸天網工程遍及全中國
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ttgP_dr ... AU&index=7
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:15 pm

2019.03.17【文茜世界周報】應對經濟下行 李克強強調市場化改革放活企業
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2G5qZrf ... AU&index=2
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:43 pm

Chinese companies are defaulting on their debts at an 'unprecedented' level

by Weizhen Tan

Defaults for Chinese corporate bonds — issued in both U.S. dollars and the Chinese yuan — soared last year, according to numbers from two banks.

Analysts blamed the difficulties on tighter monetary conditions, aggravated by high borrowing costs, as well as a crackdown on shadow lending.

Defaults look set to continue this year although at a more manageable pace, said experts. But that doesn't bode well for already-high debt levels in China.

Japanese bank Nomura's estimates, provided to CNBC, were even higher, putting the size of defaults in onshore bonds — or yuan-denominated bonds — at 159.6 billion yuan ($23.8 billion) last year. That number is roughly four times more than its 2017 estimate.

Offshore corporate dollar bonds, or U.S. dollar-denominated debt issued by Chinese companies, followed the same trend. Nomura said the amount of such debt rose to $7 billion in 2018, from none the year before.

According to DBS, the energy sector bailed on 46.4 billion yuan of payments in 2018 — making up almost 40 percent of all defaults in yuan-denominated debt. Consumer companies were the next worst hit.

The bank singled out the property sector and said that "a worryingly large share of recent borrowing has come in the form of short-term bonds." The funding pressure faced by property developers have been exacerbated by the housing slowdown, it added.


Source: CNBC

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese- ... 00346.html
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:43 pm

Chinese companies are defaulting on their debts at an 'unprecedented' level

by Weizhen Tan

Defaults for Chinese corporate bonds — issued in both U.S. dollars and the Chinese yuan — soared last year, according to numbers from two banks.

Analysts blamed the difficulties on tighter monetary conditions, aggravated by high borrowing costs, as well as a crackdown on shadow lending.

Defaults look set to continue this year although at a more manageable pace, said experts. But that doesn't bode well for already-high debt levels in China.

Japanese bank Nomura's estimates, provided to CNBC, were even higher, putting the size of defaults in onshore bonds — or yuan-denominated bonds — at 159.6 billion yuan ($23.8 billion) last year. That number is roughly four times more than its 2017 estimate.

Offshore corporate dollar bonds, or U.S. dollar-denominated debt issued by Chinese companies, followed the same trend. Nomura said the amount of such debt rose to $7 billion in 2018, from none the year before.

According to DBS, the energy sector bailed on 46.4 billion yuan of payments in 2018 — making up almost 40 percent of all defaults in yuan-denominated debt. Consumer companies were the next worst hit.

The bank singled out the property sector and said that "a worryingly large share of recent borrowing has come in the form of short-term bonds." The funding pressure faced by property developers have been exacerbated by the housing slowdown, it added.


Source: CNBC

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese- ... 00346.html
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:29 pm

2019.03.23【文茜世界周報】江蘇爆炸百人死亡失蹤 空氣河水汙染成隱憂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNnMbWH ... -pKgdwMSAU
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Re: China - Economic Data & News 17 (Jan 19 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Fri Mar 29, 2019 8:29 am

訪法檢閱儀仗隊
習步姿失衡疑腳痛
https://hk.news.appledaily.com/internat ... 9/20644021
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