Europe - Economic Data & News 01 (May 08 - Oct 08)

[millionairemind]

UK economic growth shudders to a halt
By Telegraph staff
Last Updated: 10:05am BST 22/08/2008

The UK economy ground to a standstill last quarter, putting to an end the country's longest stretch of growth in more than a century.

The news will put added pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates

Britain's gross domestic product failed to expand in the three months to the end of June, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed today. The figure was worse than economists had expected and weaker than an initial estimate for the period.

The news delivers a huge blow to Gordon Brown whose popularity is plunging as the economy heads toward its first recession since the early 1990s.

It will also add pressure on the Bank of England to put aside its concern about the inflation threat and deliver the cuts in interest rates signalled in the Inflation Report earlier this month.

"The bank needs to prevent a fairly shallow recession from getting worse," said Stewart Robertson, an economist at Morley Fund Management. "They need to cut rates this year."

Britain emerged from its last recession in 1991 and then contracted for a single quarter in the following year.

Today's figures sent sterling plunging against the dollar and the euro as traders digested the news that the UK's economic slowdown is deepening.

[kennynah]

Eurozone Industrial New Orders Fall In June
8/22/2008 5:25 AM ET

(RTTNews) - Eurozone industrial new orders decreased 7.4% year-on-year in June, faster than a 4.4% fall recorded in May, the Eurostat said Friday. The decrease was quicker than the expected 6.1% fall.

New orders for basic metals and fabricated metal products increased 4.6% and manufacturing of chemicals and chemical products rose 3.8%. Meanwhile, orders for machinery and equipment decreased 2.8%, followed by a 3.7% decrease in manufacturing of electrical and electronic equipment. Orders for textiles and textile products declined 9.6% and that for transport equipments plummeted 29.8%.

Further, the statistical office said among the member states for which data are available, total new orders rose in eleven and fell in seven. Romania recorded the highest increase of 27.8% followed by Latvia with 26.9% growth. Lithuania recorded 22.9% increase. On the other hand, France recorded the most significant decrease of 16.9%. This follows a 6.5% fall in Spain and a 6% decline in both Germany and the Czech Republic.

Month-on-month, total new orders were down 0.3%, at a slower pace than the expected 1.1% decline. In May, orders have fallen 5.4% revised from a 3.5% fall estimated initially.

[kennynah]

a quick summary of eurozone data for 22aug08

overall...economic slump in the making... EUR$ will surely be under pressure...

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RTT News
Ø Ireland June retail sales volume down 0.7% on month
8/22/2008 6:41:38 AM
Ø Ireland June retail sales volume down 5.2% on year
8/22/2008 6:40:36 AM
Ø Eurozone Industrial New Orders Fall In June
8/22/2008 5:25:47 AM
Ø Eurozone June industrial new orders decline 7.4% on year, consensus 6.1% fall
8/22/2008 5:04:15 AM
Ø Eurozone June industrial new orders down 0.3% on month, consensus 1.1% decline
8/22/2008 5:02:25 AM
Ø Eurozone Current Account Deficit Widens In June
8/22/2008 4:51:28 AM
Ø Eurozone June industrial orders expected to decline at a faster pace
8/22/2008 4:47:18 AM
Ø Austria's June manufacturing production declines 1.1% on year
8/22/2008 4:29:08 AM
Ø Austria's June manufacturing production down 5.1% on month
8/22/2008 4:28:16 AM
Ø Dutch August Consumer, Producer Confidence Improve More Than Expected
8/22/2008 4:06:44 AM

[millionairemind]

German Business Confidence Declined to Three-Year Low (Update1)
By Simone Meier

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- German business confidence fell more than economists forecast in August, to a three-year low, heightening concern that Europe's largest economy may be slipping into a recession.

The Munich-based Ifo institute's business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, fell to 94.8 from 97.5 in July. Economists expected a drop to 97.2, the median of 35 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey shows.

Germany's economy contracted in the second quarter and may not grow in the third. While oil prices have receded from a record $147.27 a barrel, they're still up 60 percent over the past year, crimping companies' spending power just as the euro's appreciation and the U.S. housing slump weigh on export demand.

Full story
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home

[kennynah]

actually...it's more like a 5 year low...

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German GfK Consumer Confidence At 5-Year Low
8/26/2008 7:55 AM ET

(RTTNews) - A gloomier economic outlook and concerns over rising inflation pushed German consumer confidence to a fresh five-year low, results of a closely watched survey revealed Tuesday.

The latest consumer confidence survey by the market research group GfK showed that its forward-looking consumer climate index for September slipped to 1.5 from a revised reading of 1.9 in August. According to GfK, the indicator last scored a comparable low value in summer 2003. Earlier, the reading for August was reported as 2.1, which was the lowest since June 2003. Economists were expecting a reading of 2 for September.

[kennynah]

Norwegian Jobless Rate Rises In May-July
8/27/2008 8:41 AM ET

(RTTNews) - Wednesday, the results of the Labor Force Survey announced by Statistics Norway showed that the jobless rate rose to 2.6% in the period between May to July from 2.4% seen in the previous three-month period ending April. Economists were looking for a rate of 2.5%.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the number of employed increased by 3,000 from the previous three months.

During this period, the average number of man -weeks worked each week grew by 4,000 from three-month period ending April.

[kennynah]

slower growth + higher inflation....just like USA...except in US, fed was willing and decisively cut lending rates...trichet on the other hand... is unwilling to lower rates despite...

German July Import Price Inflation Near 8-Year High
8/27/2008 9:13 AM ET



(RTTNews) - German import price inflation in July increased at the fastest pace since November 2000 on higher energy prices.

Wednesday, the Federal Statistical Office announced that the import price inflation rose more than expected year-on-year to 9.3% in July, which was the fastest growth since November 2000. Economists were expecting it to climb to 9.2% in July from 8.9% in June.

Compared to the previous month, import prices were up 0.6%, but down from June's 1.5%. However, monthly increase exceeded the 0.5% growth expected.

Prices of imported coal surged 77.6% annually and crude oil prices jumped 51.6%, in July. Gas prices showed an annual growth of 53.6%. Meanwhile, iron ore prices were up 1.4% on a monthly basis, taking the annual rise to 44.2%. On the other hand, prices of lead, zinc and tin declined in July from the prior year.

Excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, import prices rose 3.5% in July over the prior year.

(truncated)

[millionairemind]

Britain faces 18 months of negative growth, warns top fund manager Peter Hargreaves
By Emma Thelwell
Last Updated: 2:43pm BST 27/08/2008

The UK economy is staring down the barrel at eighteen months of negative growth, as a recession grips the nation and pushes the FTSE 100 below the 5,000 mark, one of Britain's most respected fund managers has warned.

Peter Hargreaves, one half of the Bristol-based investment management group Hargreaves Lansdown, said the torrid time ahead may see another small UK bank being rescued by a larger rival.

The banks reporting season in March could be the catalyst for further falls in London's leading share index, he added.

Co-founder and chief executive of the group, Mr Hargreaves said: "I think there will be a '4' on the front of the FTSE 100 - by the time all the gremlins have been discovered."

The company, which floated on the London Stock Exchange last May, expects the FTSE to stumble as traders return to the market in the autumn, falling in the run up to Christmas, by which time Mr Hargreaves said there should be a "platform on which to build".

More pessimistic than most, Mr Hargreaves expects the UK economy to suffer six quarters of negative growth - a recession is typically defined as two quarters of negative growth.

He said: "There's no money in the kitty to prime the pump. The bank's haven't got any. Neither has the Government.

"And people are repairing their own balance sheets - negative equity and other debts are scaring them into paying off debts and saving money. They are not paying money into the stock market or into the retail sector."

Mr Hargreaves named the commercial property sector as one for private investors to avoid. He warned that the sector has further to fall, as offices face periods of languishing empty - with public and private sector employers alike hold back on hiring.

For the riskier investor there are a few silver linings amid the misery. Mr Hargreaves said Russia is a "screaming buy". With all the bad news priced in, he said Russian stocks were "very, very cheap and speculative". Gold, the traditional safe haven for private investors, has also come off its recent highs and would be worth picking up, he said.

Mr Hargreaves added: "Equity income funds are looking very cheap - they've bombed out of the market now, but they are paying 4pc dividends which is not bad."

The past 18 months have reminded people of the danger of profligacy, he said, which has helped boost the savings and pensions divisions at Hargreaves.

Despite a 16pc drop in the FTSE All Share in the year to the end of June, the group reported a 9pc rise in assets under management, to £11.1bn.

Mr Hargreaves said the company's pre-tax profit rise to £60.9m, up from £24.4m, was "nothing less than remarkable", given the testing time the group has suffered since it came to the stock market.

Looking ahead, Mr Hargreaves said: "Initially money will not be invested in the stock market and investments in which Hargreaves Lansdown specialises, but eventually when there is confidence we shall see investors once again putting a toe in the water."

The company said while investors continue to avoid the equity markets, it will target the SIPP (Self Invested Personal Pension) and corporate solutions markets in its "quest to continue gathering assets".

The group's shares warmed more than 2pc, up 3.5 to 164.25p.

[millionairemind]

Looks like UK is in a much worse shape than US.

House prices are falling at their fastest rate in nearly 20 years, new figures show.
By Aislinn Simpson
Last Updated: 8:12AM BST 28 Aug 2008

Property values have dropped by 10.5 per cent in the last year, the first time they have dropped by double figures since 1990, according to Nationwide Building Society.
The average property has seen just under £20,000 wiped off its value and now stands at £164,654.

House prices have now fallen for 10 months in a row, they have fallen by 10.3 per cent since the beginning of the year.

The rate at which homes are losing value also accelerated in August to 1.9 per cent, from 1.5 per cent and 0.9 per cent in July and June respectively.

Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's chief economist, pointed out that the longer view was less severe. "While the pace of monthly falls picked up during the month, the less volatile three month on three month measure eased very slightly in August to 4.5 per cent from 4.6 per cent in July," she said.

She said recent activity levels in the market had been "very subdued", although she added that data from estate agents suggested that some "glimmers of interest" were returning to the market, possibly as a result of price falls and the opportunity buyers had to negotiate big discounts.

She said that while there was still a great deal of uncertainty, the Bank of England's forecasts for growth and inflation have been widely interpreted as opening the door to rate cuts.

"We expect the next move in the bank rate to be down, but the extent to which this will revive the mortgage and housing market is likely to be limited while overall confidence in economic and housing market conditions is low," she said.

The bank also said there had been an increase in the number of people looking to take out fixed rate mortgages rather than tracker loans because they feared the volatile markets could see a climb in rates and affect repayments.

Forty four per cent of borrowers said they were more likely to look for a fixed rate mortgage this year compared to last year, and 43 per cent said they would consider a longer term fixed rate mortgage that they would not have considered last year.

[kennynah]

let's see.... if a small portion of hyde park can be bought...turn that into some eatery...especially if can face the buckingham palace gate... and everyday, have a special "change of guard" menu...huat tat loh....