by winston » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:56 am
Singapore Residential Sector: Life’s not a bed of roses
Although valuations for the benchmark index for Singapore developers are undemanding, given that the blended forward P/B ratio currently stands at 0.55x, or 1.6 standard deviations below its 10-year average of 0.78x, we believe investor sentiment towards the sector remains muted, while there is also a lack of near-term catalysts.
We have seen some pricing pressures on projects which were launched on or shortly before 5 Jul, as ASPs have declined by 0.4% to 6.2% (data from 6 Jul to 2 Sep) as compared to 1 Jun to 5 Jul ASP levels.
As such, we maintain NEUTRAL on SG developers. We narrow our private residential price growth forecast to 8%-10% for 2018 (previously 8%-12%; 1H18: +7.4%), and also trim our private transaction volumes projection to 8k-10k units from 10k-12k units.
Our preferred sector picks are CapitaLand (CAPL SP) [BUY; FV: S$4.09] and UOL [BUY; FV: S$8.48]. We expect developers to focus more on growing their recurring income streams amid residential headwinds and to seek overseas opportunities, while being more prudent in their land replenishment in Singapore.
Maintain NEUTRAL on SG developers. Our preferred sector picks are CAPL [BUY; FV: S$4.09] and UOL [BUY; FV: S$8.48].
Source: OCBC
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