MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:20 am

Threat to ringgit’s resilience

Morgan Stanley predicts the currency will weaken by year-end

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s ringgit was sheltered from the worst of last month’s emerging-market selloff, thanks to higher oil prices. It may be about to make up for lost time.

Traders will be hovering over the sell button after Wednesday’s policy meeting in case the central bank shows any sign of turning dovish due to the worsening US-China trade dispute and the new government’s decision to cut back on infrastructure spending to trim its debt burden.

Analysts predict economic growth will slow to 5.5% this year from 5.9%, while inflation will cool to 2.5% from 3.9%, giving new governor Datuk Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus plenty of reason to ease policy.

Although analysts predict Bank Negara will keep its benchmark unchanged at 3.25% this week, they have been trimming predictions for a future increase.

The market implied policy rate for one year’s time has declined to 3.28% from 3.41% in May, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Morgan Stanley predicts the ringgit will weaken to 4.28 per dollar by year-end due to expectations for a stronger dollar, concern about Malaysia’s debt burden and ongoing political uncertainties.

Barclays Plc says it will drop to 4.20 amid a possible deterioration in the nation’s finances after the scrapping of the goods and services tax. The currency was at 4.0373 last Friday.

Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad has made clear his preference for the ringgit’s direction, saying its fair value should be 3.8 per dollar. While it may eventually appreciate to that level, the short-term risks are for it to go the other way.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... 83s4VsT.99
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:50 pm

Ringgit to weaken to 4.1000 against USD by end-2018 — RHB

by Wong Ee Lin

KUALA LUMPUR (July 10): RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd anticipates the ringgit to weaken to 4.1000 against the US dollar by end-2018, due to capital outflow.

In a note today, RHB economists Peck Boon Soon and Vincent Loo Yeong Hong, said RHB expects the US dollar to remain strong for the rest of the year, amid faster interest rate hike expectations in the US, and global trade uncertainties.

"Following a strong rally in 1Q18, the MYR in 2Q suffered the worst quarterly performance in almost two years. The recent weakness was mainly on the back of persistent USD strength, after the US Federal Reserve raised its dot plot interest rate guidance.

"In addition, foreign investors were adjusting their investment portfolio, following the conclusion of Malaysia’s general election," Peck and Loo said. At 11:21am today, the ringgit was traded at 4.0090 against the US dollar.

As RHB maintains its 2018 Malaysia gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast, the research firm also foresees downside risk to its 2019 GDP growth forecast for the country.

The economists said RHB is maintaining its real GDP growth forecast for Malaysia at 5.2% for 2018, albeit a slowdown from the 5.9% expansion in 2017, as a cut in public spending will likely be cushioned by higher consumer spending, due to the tax holiday.

"However, we are foreseeing a downside risk to our 2019’s real GDP growth forecast of 5%. The move to cut expenditure and review government projects' spending will likely impact construction and economic growth of the country, especially in 2019.

Still, we believe it is necessary for Malaysia to go through short-term pain for long-term gain, in order to improve the financial health of the public sector," they said.

Source: The Edge

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/r ... %80%94-rhb
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:31 am

Ringgit likely to strengthen to 3.8 to US$1 by year-end

Affin Hwang Capital chief economist Alan Tan said the ringgit was expected to appreciate to RM3.80 against the US dollar given the country’s strong economic fundamentals and trading activities.


Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... 5cKGPrO.99
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:26 am

Malaysia: Wider external surplus is positive for ringgit

by Prakash Sakpal

A continued widening in external trade and current account surpluses this year is positive for the Malaysian ringgit (MYR), but the persistent global trade uncertainty is negative.

The global trade war is driving our view of USD/MYR trading toward 4.35 by the end of the year. However, Malaysia’s positive external payments situation sustains the scope for the currency outperformance which imparts a downside risk to our end-year USD/MYR forecast (spot rate 4.08).

MYR-denominated exports rose by 7.6% year-on-year and imports by 14.9%. While these were slower than the consensus forecasts of 10.3% and 15.3% respectively, the pace was still faster than 3.4% for export growth and 0.1% for import growth in May.

In the exports category, the commodities cluster (crude petroleum, petroleum products, liquefied natural gas, and palm oil) slowed sharply to a 3.4% YoY fall from over 10% growth in May.

Acceleration in electronics exports led by the semiconductors, which was up 21% YoY from 13% in May, saved the day.

The wider trade surplus boosted the annual current account surplus to MYR 40bn in 2017 (3.0% of GDP) from MYR 30bn (2.4% of GDP) in the previous year. We forecast a further widening in the current surplus this year to about MYR 50bn (3.5% of GDP).


Source: ING

https://think.ing.com/articles/malaysia ... r-ringgit/
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:18 am

Najib: Malaysia's languishing reserves means we can't pay back short-term loans

"My concern is on the 0.9 times the short-term foreign debts.

"For example, we owe a foreigner $100 but only have foreign currency of $90 to pay it back. This is a new risk for the country.


Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/ ... erm-loans/
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:18 am

Najib: Malaysia's languishing reserves means we can't pay back short-term loans

"My concern is on the 0.9 times the short-term foreign debts.

"For example, we owe a foreigner $100 but only have foreign currency of $90 to pay it back. This is a new risk for the country.


Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/ ... erm-loans/
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Thu Nov 22, 2018 2:41 pm

vested

Ringgit seen at 4.22 against US dollar — UOB

by Gigi Chua

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 22): The ringgit is projected to reach 4.22 against the US dollar in anticipation of US interest rate increases and amid volatility in global crude oil prices, according to UOB Malaysia Bhd.

At 10:39am today, the ringgit was traded at 4.1930 against the greenback. Over the last one year, the exchange rate was between 3.8533 and 4.2005.

"The (Malaysian) government's efforts to build a more transparent government, the economy's underlying strengths, steady economic growth, low unemployment and a surplus current account, will help support the ringgit," UOB senior economist Julia Goh said here today at a media briefing on Malaysia's economic outlook.

Goh said Malaysia's economic outlook for 2019 is expected to remain positive, despite expectations of intensifying trade disputes and policy uncertainty, which may result in slower global growth.

She said Malaysia will find support from robust domestic private consumption and investments despite the country not being immune to global headwinds.

UOB's Malaysia real gross domestic product growth projection is at 4.8% in 2018 and 2019, according to her. For 2018's third quarter, Bank Negara Malaysia said the country's economy grew 4.4% from a year earlier.

Today, Goh said the country's 2019 inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, is estimated at 2% compared with 2018's estimated 1.2%.

She said UOB foresees the nation's overnight policy rate to remain unchanged at 3.25% for the first half of 2019.

On crude oil markets, she said UOB estimated 2019 average prices at US$75 (RM313.32) to US$80 per barrel due to US sanctions on Iran oil exports.

Source: The Edge

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/r ... %80%94-uob
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Sat Apr 20, 2019 8:43 am

Malaysia could see outflows of almost US$8b if bonds downgraded by FTSE: Morgan Stanley

FTSE said on Monday that it would review Malaysia's market accessibility level in its World Government Bond Index (WGBI) due to concerns about market liquidity.

Malaysia, currently assigned a '2' and included in the WGBI since 2004, was being considered for a potential downgrade to '1', making it ineligible for inclusion, FTSE said.

Foreign investors have been reducing their Malaysian government bond holdings since late 2016 and, as of late March 2019, held US$37bil, Morgan Stanley said.

Source: Reuters


Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... 23gv8RU.99
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Tue Oct 01, 2019 3:15 pm

Ringgit softness may persist towards RM4.23-4.28 levels, says HLIB

by Surin Murugiah

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 1): Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) said in wake of the prevailing risk-off sentiment, the appetite on dollar assets has strengthened, as worries that negotiations between the US-China on 10-11 Oct will not lead to a “complete” trade deal, possibility of a no-deal Brexit, excessive financial market volatility and lingering geopolitical tensions, coupled with deepening political turmoil in the US after the start of an impeachment inquiry into Trump.

In a technical tracker today, HLIB said on the ringgit (MYR) outlook, despite abating risk of WGBI exclusion for now (pending further review in March 2020), the greenback strength and Bank Negara Malaysia’s easing bias (HLIB forecast a 25 basis points OPR cut within the next 6 months and keeps a 4.15-4.20 range/USD), USDMYR is expected to move alongside USDCNY (also on weakening tone) towards RM4.23-4.28 territory in the next 3-6 months (technical view).

“Given the weak ringgit undertone, we reckon that export plays could return.

“HLIB top picks are Top Glove Corp Bhd (Buy: TP RM5.31, DY: 2.3%) and Lii Hen Industries Bhd (Buy: TP RM4.22, DY: 5.3%),” it said.

Source: The Edge

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... -says-hlib
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: MYR (Malaysian Ringgit)

Postby winston » Tue Oct 15, 2019 3:23 pm

Affin Hwang revises ringgit forecast to RM4.20 versus US dollar

by Cameron Chong

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 15): Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd revised its ringgit forecast to RM4.20 against the US dollar by end-2020 from RM4.10 previously, in anticipation the US will not cut interest rates aggressively and amid US-China trade war uncertainty.

According to Affin Hwang's note today, anticipation of aggressive easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) did not materialise as the central bank has only cut its federal funds rate by a total of 50 basis points this year to the 1.75% to 2.00% range. It said the Fed's interest rate decision has supported the strength of the US dollar.

"In addition, the US Fed did not guide that there will be quantitative easing despite intervention in the repo market.

We also expect the ringgit to be weighed down by ongoing trade uncertainty, especially if trade tensions escalate.

"So far, the Chinese yuan has depreciated by 3.3% YTD and this may also contribute to the softer ringgit. Although Malaysia was retained in the FTSE Russell's World Government Bond Index, its position remains in the watch list, which reflects some lingering uncertainty about Malaysia's position in the upcoming interim review in March 2020," Affin Hwang said.

Source: The Edge

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... -us-dollar
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

PreviousNext

Return to Currencies

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests

cron