Gamuda

Re: Gamuda

Postby winston » Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:16 pm

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Buying opportunity emerges in Gamuda, says CIMB Research

by Samantha Ho

KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 11): The recent fall in Gamuda Bhd's share price to a one-year low presents a buying opportunity for investors as the stock remains one of the best rail picks, said CIMB Research.

The requirement for between 40% and 50% of local participation for the mass rapid transit 3 (MRT3) is a "positive surprise" for the group, CIMB Research said in a note today.

While Japanese and Chinese companies with self-financing capabilities are likely to vie for project's turnkey contractor role, the research house noted that Gamuda is not too perturbed by the lack of a project delivery partner (PDP) model.

Shares in Gamuda had plunged to as low as RM4.58 per share on Nov 21 after MRT Corp announced that it would be replacing the PDP model with a design, finance and operate structure for the third MRT project.

Gamuda had, via a joint venture with MMC Corp Bhd, acted as the PDP for the first two MRT projects.

The counter has since regained some lost ground, rising 2 sen or 0.42% as at 11.37am to trade at RM4.77 per share.

According to Bloomberg data, 18 out of 24 analysts have a buy call on the counter with a consensus target price of RM5.95 by 20 out of 24 analysts.

However, CIMB Research also said a big unanswered question is whether or not MMC will return as Gamuda's 50:50 joint venture partner for the MRT3 as all tunnel boring machines and patents are currently registered under the partnership, CIMB said.

Following an analyst briefing last Friday, several research houses painted a positive outlook for the group, with TA Securities opining that the market may have overreacted to the change in delivery model for the MRT3.

"We still see Gamuda as a front-runner to get a sizable amount of the works in MRT3, albeit at lower expected margins compared with the first two lines," TA Securities said in a note today.

Meanwhile, AmResearch said the joint venture between Gamuda and Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd to bid for the Kuala Lumpur–Singapore high speed rail (KL-Singapore HSR) project is expected to have a technical edge over the consortium formed by Sunway Construction Sdn Bhd, IJM Corp Bhd, Maltimur Resources Sdn Bhd and Jalinan Rejang Sdn Bhd.

"We will not be surprised [if] YTL Corp Bhd decides to join the fray in bidding for the KL-Singapore HSR role given that YTL was the one who first mooted the project back in the 1990s," AmResearch said a note this morning.

Source: The Edge

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/b ... b-research
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Re: Gamuda

Postby winston » Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:24 pm

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Not That Gloomy After All
Last Traded: RM4.75
BUY

We attended a corporate update briefing conducted by GAMUDA last Friday.

The briefing centred around the topics of MRT Line 3 (MRT3), KL-Singapore High Speed Rail (KLSHSR) and East Coast Rail Line (ECRL).

It cleared the confusions on its prospects in these rail projects.

In our opinion, the market may have over-reacted in the recent sell down of GAMUDA’s shares, following the change in type of contract for MRT3 from PDP model to turnkey contract.

Valuation

Maintain our BUY call and target price of RM6.00, based on 20xCY18 construction earnings, 14xCY18 property earnings and 16xCY18 earnings from toll road and water concessions.

Its share price has tanked 6.5% since the release of tender notice for MRT3 turnkey contract. We see the recent sell down as an opportunity to accumulate GAMUDA shares given:
i) GAMUDA’s extensive experience in rail projects together with its strong, proven track records could give it a strong edge in procurement of rail projects;
ii) GAMUDA being a strong contender for ECRL, KLSHSR and MRT3 could potentially benefit from the positive news flow of contract awards anticipated in 2018; and
iii) Encouraging property sales recorded in FY17 and strong growth targeted for FY18 property sales.

Source: TA Securities
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Re: Gamuda

Postby winston » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:34 pm

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Gamuda up on dividend, 1Q profit

by Syahirah Syed Jaafar

KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 18): Gamuda Bhd rose as much as 10 sen or 2% after the builder and property developer reported higher first quarter net profit at RM203.02 million from a year earlier.

The company also declared a dividend to reward shareholders.

As at 10:15am, the stock changed hands at RM4.84 with more than 300,000 shares traded. Gamuda shares had earlier reached their highest so far today at RM4.85.

On Friday, Gamuda reported a higher net profit of RM203.02 million in the first quarter ended Oct 31, 2017 (1QFY18) from RM162.15 million a year earlier.

Revenue rose to RM771.82 million from RM504.88 million.

The group declared a dividend of six sen per share. The dividend's ex and payment dates are on Jan 3 and 25, 2018 respectively, the company said.

Today, CIMB Investment Bank Bhd analyst Sharizan Rosely said Gamuda's 1QFY18 core net profit was broadly in line with expectations, making up 27% and 28% of CIMB and consensus's full-year forecast respectively.

"The stock has fallen 12% in the past three months. We feel this presents a good buying opportunity ahead of potential contract flows in 1HFY18," Sharizan said.

Source: The Edge

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/g ... -1q-profit
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Re: Gamuda

Postby winston » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:53 am

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GAMUDA BHD
By RHB Research

Rating: Buy (maintained)
Target price: RM5.80

The research house noted that the group’s share price had retreated by 9% over the past few months, fuelled by the news.

Gamuda’s joint-venture company had been appointed as PDP for the previous MRT1 and MRT2 projects.

“Nevertheless, we remain optimistic on the company’s prospects despite the aforementioned setback, as we opine that it remains a strong contender in securing the PDP role for the bigger-scale Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high-speed rail project, given its successful stint as PDP for MRT1.

“Apart from that, the east coast rail link and MRT3 mega projects offer ample subcontract and underground-related work opportunities to keep the company busy,” it said in a note.

The research house has maintained its “buy” call on the counter as well as its target price of RM5.80.

It said the firm was its top pick among large-cap construction companies, as it viewed Gamuda as a key proxy to major infrastructure projects in the country.

“In addition, Gamuda’s property division has been registering healthy earnings growth while its concession businesses provide defensive earnings and steady streams of cashflow.

“We are of the opinion that the current low market expectations and share price pullback represents a good opportunity for investors to accumulate the stock,” it said.

Gamuda currently trades at a rolling 12-month forward price-earnings ratio of only 13.9 times, below its five-year mean of 14.7 times.

RHB Research said this is unjustified, given its large outstanding orderbook and ability to secure new job wins.

Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... e4lFlJj.99
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Re: Gamuda

Postby winston » Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:30 pm

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Nov 9, 2017

GAMUDA BHD
Buy (maintained)
Target price: RM5.80

RHB Research Institute has kept a “buy” call on Gamuda with an unchanged sum-of-parts target price of RM5.80, as the company remains the proxy to major infrastructure development in Malaysia.

Its property and concession businesses are expected to contribute in sustaining earnings growth.

Gamuda’s share price fell 5% on Tuesday following the proposal by Mass Rapid Transit Corp Sdn Bhd to invite construction and infrastructure firms to submit their bids to build (on a turnkey basis) and finance the upcoming MRT3.

Although the new proposal appears to be unfavourable to Gamuda, as its potential role in the project might be less prominent compared to previous MRT phases, RHB Research believes orderbook replenishment opportunities remain aplenty, with the Government’s reaffirmation of major infrastructure projects during Budget 2018.

“We think that the selldown in Gamuda’s shares might be overdone, given the muted financial impact from MRT Corp’s new proposal on our forecasts,” RHB Research said.

The research house said in view of the requirement to finance the project and the project’s scale, it believed Gamuda was unlikely to take on the main or prominent role that it used to play in Malaysia’s key railway infrastructure projects.

“Gamuda appears to be on the losing end from the development but we are not jumping the gun at this preliminary juncture, with limited details on the new structure pending a tender briefing on Nov 15.”

Since the research house has not built in any orderbook replenishment target from MRT3 into its model, the earnings impact of this development is muted.

Nonetheless, RHB Research reckons Gamuda still stands a good chance to be involved in MRT3, given its proven track record and unrivalled expertise in major infrastructure construction.

However, it might not be able to enjoy the same profit margins it used to have, if it is going in as a sub-contractor vis-a-vis its previous role as Project Delivery Partner and tunnelling contractor in MRT1 and 2.

Source: RHB Research Institute
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Re: Gamuda

Postby winston » Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:16 am

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Stock pick: Gamuda Bhd
Share price: 5.07

GAMUDA Bhd’s share price had underperformed the KL Construction Index by 6% in 2017, mainly attributed to the lack of new contract wins during the year, with the last major wins being the MRT Line 2 Underground Package and Pan Borneo Highway Sarawak back in 2016.

This is further exacerbated by the unexpected announcement of a turnkey role (including financing) instead of a project delivery partner (PDP) role for the upcoming MRT Line 3, which ended Gamuda’s initial hope to secure the PDP role for the project.

However, in 2018, we believe that the Main Market-listed Gamuda stands to end its contract drought by securing large jobs from mega infrastructure projects that are to be rolled out progressively such as East Coast Rail Link (ECRL), High Speed Rail (HSR) and MRT Line 3. This expection is supported by the company’s leading expertise and track record in major infrastructure developments in Malaysia.

Apart from that, its long awaited SPLASH water concession asset sale could finally materialise after the election which is expected to be held in 1H18.

Moving forward, we expect the accelerated construction works for MRT Line 2 and Pan Borneo Highway Sarawak, stronger sales from Gamuda’s overseas property development projects and stable infrastructure concession income to alleviate market concerns on earnings delivery.

With valuation being relatively attractive after a disappointing performance in 2017, coupled with the above mentioned catalysts, we believe Gamuda’s valuation would catch up and outperform its peers in 2018.

Source: THOMAS YONG, Fortress Capital CEO
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Re: Gamuda

Postby winston » Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:01 am

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Better construction and property earnings

1QFY18 results met expectations
Expects to be present in all three large infra projects – HSR, ECRL and MRT 3
Property presales off to a flying start
Maintain BUY and SOP-derived TP of RM6.70

Source: Alliance DBS
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Re: Gamuda

Postby winston » Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:34 am

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Management more upbeat, orderbook could potentially quadruple in near term

MRT3: Management seems much more optimistic on the chances of winning the bid for MRT 3. The government is expected to announce the winner of the bid by end March 2018. If the Gamuda-MMC-George Kent consortium wins the bid, Gamuda's orderbook could grow RM20 bn (vs RM7.3 bn outstanding now).

HSR: On KL-Singapore High Speed Rail, YTL-SIPP would appear to be the strongest contender to Gamuda-MRCB. We understand that the government is considering splitting the PDP job into two
packages (KL-Melaka and Johor), which would significantly improve Gamuda-MRCB JV's chances of securing a PDP role.

We re-iterate our OUTPERFORM rating on Gamuda. We believe that near-term potential upside to orderbook could re-rate the stock.

Source: CS
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Re: Gamuda

Postby winston » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:00 pm

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MRT 3 win more valuable than ECRL with higher margins and value

Gamuda will beat the upper-end of its combined two year new order win forecast with MRT 3 win

Introducing best case, base case and worst case scenarios

BUY, SOP-derived TP of RM6.70

Gamuda’s property presales guidance for FY18F is RM3.5bn (RM1.86bn local and RM1.64bn overseas) which is 50% higher than its last guidance.

Valuation:
We maintain our BUY rating with a new SOP-derived TP of RM6.70. We have accounted for the dilution of warrants and corresponding increase in cash raised from full conversion while also assuming some new wins outside of MRT 2.


Source: DBS

https://researchwise.dbsvresearch.com/R ... VyaWRAQA==
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Re: Gamuda

Postby winston » Thu Mar 15, 2018 3:22 pm

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Closing in on KVMRT 3 awards

Maintain BUY

Gamuda’s outstanding orderbook of MYR7.3b (as at Oct 2017) and strong property pre-sales into 1HFY18 will continue to support earnings growth into FY20E.

Its MYR6b-8b job win target for CY18 remains unchanged, supported by potential wins from the KVMRT 3, KL-SG High Speed Rail, East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) and Pan Borneo Sabah Highway (PBSaH).

We keep our earnings forecasts and RNAV-based TP of MYR5.60.

Gamuda will release its 2QFY18 results on 23 March.

Turning upbeat on KVMRT 3 awards
Based on an article in The Edge Weekly, we gather that only the Gamuda-MMC-GKENT and CCCC JV have met the technical requirements and were shortlisted for the turnkey role.

Source: Kim Eng

https://factsetpdf.maybank-ke.com/PDF/8 ... da1db8.pdf
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