Enough Aluminum Already
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articl ... m-in-china
Chinese demand meanwhile would grow by 4-6 per cent this year after rising 7.4 per cent in 2016, Norsk said.
Norsk said it expected China to have a 1.5 million tonne surplus of aluminium this year, offsetting a deficit of 1.5 million tonnes elsewhere in the world.
Earlier this week, to control pollution in northern China, Beijing released a new draft proposing to cut 30% aluminum capacity and 50% alumina capacity in “Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and surrounding areas”.
This measure is not likely to be implemented till this November how.
According to Deutsche Bank, the aluminum industry could see excess demand this year and next; therefore, aluminum’s price can hover above $1,850 per ton. The bank raised its 2017 and 2018 price forecast by 7.5%.
Deutsche sees global demand for aluminum to accelerate from 4.4% in 2016 to 5.5% this year.
In China, demand will grow to 8% in 2017, versus 6.7% in 2015.
Deutsche estimates global supply to grow by 5.5% this year, slower than demand growth.
China’s supply will grow 6.5% this year, also slower than demand there.
The metal added 2.2 per cent to US$2,008 late on Tuesday in London, bringing gains for the year to about 19 per cent, the biggest rally among 22 raw materials on the Bloomberg Commodity Index.
A quarter of capacity in Shandong was unqualified last year, WoodMac said, citing government data.
This year’s figure is 3.2 million tonnes a year, or 3 million tonnes at current operating rates, and if all that gets shut, it would represent 9 per cent of the nation’s total production for 2017, it said.
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