Nomura Revises Up China Smartphone Shipment Forecasts
By Isabella Zhong
How many handsets did China’s smartphone makers sell this year?
Nomura analyst Joel Ying reckons 457 million units – which implies 10% growth compared to 2015 – after revising his estimate from a previous 445 million units.
Ying also sees a stronger 2016 for China’s top 10 smartphone makers, which include Huawei, Xiaomi, Lenovo (992.HK) and ZTE (763.HK), and healthy growth for shipments in 2017:
We now expect the China market to grow 10% y-y in 2016F and a further 3% y-y in 2017F thanks to:
1) continued 4G migration; and
2) relatively stable subsidy and marketing amounts from operators.
We see Chinese brands continuing to grow by 24% y-y in both 2016F and 2017F, thanks to their global expansion strategy.
Ying notes the global market share of Chinese smartphone vendors expanded to 34% in the September quarter from 27% a year ago:
We highlight that Huawei performed well (share in Europe up from 6.1% to 11.2%, and in Latin America from 5.0% to 6.8%) while Oppo and Vivo also increased their presence in APAC, with their market shares reaching No. 4/No. 8 at 4.7%/2.9% during 3Q16.
We expect the top-10 Chinese brands to see further expansion in overseas markets in 2017F with 39% y-y growth.
Stronger shipments for Chinese smartphone makers is good news for their component suppliers. Ying reiterated his buy ratings on Sunny Optical (2382.HK), Luxshare (002475.CN) and Shenzhen O-Film (002456.CN).
Source: Barron's Asia
http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... forecasts/