Asia - Economic Data & News 02 (Jul 16 - Dec 25)

Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Mon Oct 10, 2016 9:35 pm

Asia: The Q3 surge of funds into Asia/EM debt & equities has stabilized currencies and stock markets at a time when the corporate earnings downcycle has turned with real conviction.

Will Stephens and Khoi LeBinh highlight that EPS revisions are at multi-year highs, as cyclicals feed off the surge of credit in China, along with industrial policy support for structurally weaker areas.

Those fault lines remain as fundamental risks (impacting Banks), but with more room for monetary policy support and valuations at a discount to the US, we are positive on Asia relative to other geographies.

Japan faces a shift in macro expectations on a stronger Yen outlook but we are optimistic about continued capital management story (unwinds, buybacks etc), yield support and less pressure from foreign selling after $50bn ytd outflows.

Source: DB
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Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby behappyalways » Tue Oct 25, 2016 9:16 pm

Will Central Asia fight over water?
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-37755985
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Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Wed Oct 26, 2016 4:10 pm

Foreign Buying In Asian Stocks Slows To A Crawl

By Shuli Ren

After 4 months of net buying, foreign investors seem to have lost interest in emerging Asia.

In October, they net bought only $167 million stocks in emerging Asia ex-China, a drastic slowdown from $3.2 billion net buying in September. Over $13 billion went into emerging Asia stocks in July.

The Thai militia government’s assurance that royal succession will be smooth failed to convince international investors. They net sold $352 million Thai stocks so far this month, versus $496 million of net buying.

After net buying over $7 billion Indian stocks, foreign investors net sold $176 million so far.

Foreigners net sold Philippine stocks for the third month. The Philippines PSE Index is on a fifth day of decline.

Source: Barron's Asia
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Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Fri Nov 04, 2016 12:01 pm

Asian Stocks Vulnerable To US Election Jitters

By Shuli Ren

Don’t buy Asian stocks on dip, advised Credit Suisse equity strategist Sakthi Siva. Siva is not always bearish – she suggested buying back in August 2015 and January 2016.

The key reason is valuation. Asia ex-Japan stocks are now trading at 1.48 times book, well above the 1.23 times low this January or 1.28 times low last August.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... n-jitters/
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Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby behappyalways » Wed Nov 23, 2016 6:55 pm

The east is red
http://www.newmandala.org/the-east-is-red/


Asia's winners and losers from Trump's TPP dump
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38061616
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Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:03 pm

Richest Asian Families 2016: Top 20

Source: Forbes

http://www2.forbes.com/lists/richest-as ... 16-top-20/
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Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby behappyalways » Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:02 pm

US rate rise: Should Asia worry?
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38324977
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Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Thu Feb 02, 2017 1:45 pm

<Research Report>Nomura Downgrades PRC Mkt to Neutral; Turns Cautious on Asian Stocks

Nomura, in its Asia Strategy report, said Asian equities faced downside risks from a higher cost of capital, foreign fund outflows, moderating commodity prices and cyclically rising China risks.

The broker said risk-reward is beginning to look more unfavourable now. Thus, having held a tactical Neutral recommendation on Asia ex-Japan equities since 15 August 2016, Nomura is now downgrading its recommendation to Cautious, expecting downside of up to 10% over the coming months.

The broker also downgraded Chinese stocks to Neutral. Despite the rising China risks visible from November 2016, the broker kept the rating Overweight in China equities (MSCI China) given the unique boost from Stock-connect flows into Hong Kong.

In recent days, though, market reaction to connect flows has been more mixed. The broker upgraded Korean stocks to Overweight as tech firms' earnings increased, and kept the rating Underweight on Hong Kong stocks.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby winston » Fri Feb 10, 2017 7:28 am

Strong SE Asian Growth ?

Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth would accelerate to 4.4% this year and 4.5% in 2018 from the estimated 4.2% in 2016.

Singapore’s GDP growth was also expected to improve, rising to 2.5% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018 from the projected 2% in 2016.

The group expected Indonesia’s GDP to remain stable at 5.1% this year before improving to 5.3% next year from 5.1% in 2016, while Thailand’s economy was expected to grow 4.5% in 2017 and 2018 from 3.5%.

The Philippines’ GDP growth, on the other hand, was expected to slow to 6.4% this year and 6.5% in 2018 from 6.8% in 2016.



Source: Kim Eng

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busi ... ecovering/
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Re: Asia - Economic Data & News

Postby behappyalways » Sat Feb 18, 2017 10:47 pm

Bouncing back

Asia’s exports rebound

Trade figures augur well for the global economy


IT IS easy to be downcast about the state of global trade. It has faced stiff headwinds in recent years: in 2016, for the first time in 15 years, it grew more slowly than the world economy. Regional and global trade deals are going nowhere, slowly. And America’s new president has promised to protect his country from trade-inflicted “carnage”.

Amid all this gloom, optimism seems foolhardy. But in Asia’s export dynamos, trade is picking up steam. In January, Chinese exports rose year-on-year for the first time in ten months; South Korean shipments have increased for three months in a row. Surveys reveal strong export pipelines in Japan, Singapore and Taiwan.

Healthy order books for Asia’s manufacturers normally bode well for global trade and indeed the global economy. It is too soon to declare a definitive upturn in global trade, but it looks like more than a blip (see chart).

The simplest explanation for the rebound is that global demand is itself on solid ground. Global growth is still slower than before the financial crisis of 2008, but is heading in the right direction. Both the IMF and the World Bank think it will speed up a bit this year. Investors have turned more bullish: the MSCI all-world index, which covers 46 different markets, hit a record high this week. The rebound in Asian exports is more reason for bullishness.

Structural changes may also be at play in Asia. A much-cited factor behind the slowdown in global trade in recent years has been China’s tightening grip on complex supply chains. As more production takes place inside a single country, fewer cross-border transactions are needed to produce final goods. Yet this consolidation within China is starting to meet more friction.

China is still aiming for a bigger share of high-tech industries, but less-developed countries in Asia are scooping up more of its low-end manufacturing, and wealthier markets are also fighting back. Over the last nine months of 2016, China’s export performance trailed the rest of Asia.

Nevertheless, there are good reasons to restrain the optimism. The rebound in exports from Asia’s commodity producers such as Indonesia and Malaysia is mainly the result of higher prices for oil and metals. Growth in their trade volumes has been much slower. For Asia’s high-tech economies, the rebound’s durability hinges on the fickle tastes of consumers.

Both Samsung and Apple are expected to launch shiny new gadgets this year. Semiconductor makers around the region have gone into overdrive in anticipation. If demand falls short of expectations, exports of electronics will quickly dive again.

And looming large over all these trends is Donald Trump. Fears that he might declare China a currency manipulator in his first few days in office came to naught. But his threats during the election campaign to slap heavy tariffs on Chinese products still linger in the background. A trade war would be unwelcome at any time. If it came just when the world was breaking free from a long slump in global trade, the irony would be all the more cruel.

Source: The Economist
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