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3 reasons why SGX’s 1Q17 earnings report will be lacklustre By Jude Chan
SINGAPORE (Oct 13): CIMB is keeping its “reduce” rating on Singapore Exchange with an unchanged target price of $7.24 ahead of SGX’s 1QFY17 earnings report, scheduled to be announced after market closes on Oct 19.
CIMB analyst Jessalynn Chen expects SGX to report an
18% y-o-y drop in net profit to $81.3 million for 1Q, accounting for 22% of full-year forecast.
“Although SGX’s share price has fallen 8% since its peak in April, we still see downside risk amid sustained
weakness in securities and derivative volumes,” says Chen in a Wednesday report.
“Near term, we expect market activity to remain subdued, going into a
seasonally weak quarter,” she adds.
Here are 3 reasons why CIMB’s Chen believes SGX’s 1Q17 earnings report is going to be lacklustre.
• Securities ADVT declines further post-BrexitSGX already saw a challenging 4Q16 as markets retreated in a risk-off mode leading up to Brexit. Securities average daily value traded (ADVT), however, continued its decline in 1Q17.
According to Chen, SGX’s securities ADVT fell a further 3% q-o-q in the first quarter to $988 million –below CIMB’s forecast of $1.1 billion.
• Derivative volume downDerivative traded volume was down 6% q-o-q to 40.1 million contracts in 1Q17, says Chen.
This was on the back of demand for China A50 futures falling 4% q-o-q, Nikkei 225 futures down 13% q-o-q, Nifty futures down 3% q-o-q, iron ore futures down 8% q-o-q, and FX futures down 5% q-o-q.
Overall, however, Chen says derivative revenue is likely to have declined by only 3% q-o-q to $72.6 million, as the average fee per contract could have improved due to a smaller proportion of lower-margin contracts.
• Baltic Exchange acquisition “unlikely to move the needle”SGX’s deal to buy market-information service Baltic Exchange for 87 million pounds ($153 million) is expected to complete toward the end of November. But Chen says the acquisition will “hardly move the needle” for SGX.
(See SGX agrees to buy Baltic Exchange for $154 mil)
She notes that based on its latest 2016 annual report ending March, Baltic Exchange posted an
operating margin of 9-11% in FY15-16 – far below SGX’s margin of 50%.
“Net profit of £0.97 million - 2.25 million will also hardly move the needle at 0.4%-1.0% accretion to our FY17 earnings forecast,” Chen adds. “Forward freight agreement futures and options currently make up a mere 0.3% of total derivative traded volume on SGX.”
“We see further near-term pressure going into a seasonally-weak quarter,” Chen says.
Shares of SGX closed at $7.27.
Source: The Edge
http://smr.theedgemarkets.com/article/3 ... 1-87358173
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