Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - May 19)

[winston]

TOL as of Feb 14, 2016

buy-hold-and-sell-dice.jpg

Buy, Sell, Hold or Short ?

The US markets have rebounded towards the end of the week. So is it time to buy, sell, hold or short ?

Intuitively, I think that this technical rebound can go on for a few days as the selling has been a bit overdone. Therefore, it's probably not the time to short the market yet. BTW, I have also taken profit on all my Inverse ETFs.

In addition, the Chinese Banksters have yet to make their announcements. ( The Japanese Banksters have already done their part though and it was a disaster ). Next Wednesday, we would also be getting the FOMC Minutes.

Anyway, the Banksters will be meeting again on Feb 27-28 in Shanghai and the traders are already thinking about front-running their coordinated announcements.

As for my core portfolio, it's very likely that I would not be selling anything soon. So I would probably have to go through any correction with it.

Over the past two weeks, I've been trying to think long term and see whether there's anything to buy for the longer term. Till date, I have not really find anything that's a convincing buy yet. Anyway, it's probably still too early to buy anything and if I'm going shopping, I need to remind myself that I should apply another 30% discount to my valuation.

I still think that this is a "Trading Market" with a downward bias. Therefore, the right strategy is probably to sell or short on any sharp rallies.

As for my Currency Risk, the USD has weakened so I now have some respite. However, I think that it may strengthened again later and I should try to do the following within the next few weeks:-
1. Convert some MYR to USD. These would provide me with more bullets when I load up on my Inverse ETFs later
2. Convert some SGD to AUD before the SGD review in March
3. Convert some of HKD into USD while the HKD is still pegged at a good rate
4. Buy some Gold, Silver or Platinum. They are all traded in USD.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$29 from US$31 from US$34

a. Oil Production vs Demand: 96m bpd vs 95m bpd; Glut @ 1m bpd ?
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels (66 days of consumption )
c. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
d. US Private Industry Reserves: 480m barrels
e. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate. Global glut at 0.5m to 2m bpd
f. Iran will be able to supply 0.7m to 1m bpd by 2017; It has 40m barrels in storage; Used to produce 4.2m bpd
g. Demand expected to grow by 0.5m to 1m bpd annually, mainly from Asia; China consumes about 12% of world’s crude.
h. US Oil Capex: US$1t
i. OPEC supply is likely to increase by 1 million bpd next year, most likely from Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
j. US Supply expected to decrease by 600,000 bpd by 3Q 2016

I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will be a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Higher. US$1239 from US$1174 from US$1118. Record US$1920. Vested.

a. There's 324 oz of paper contract for every oz of gold holdings on Comex
b. Output to fall by about 100 metric tons, from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 this year
c. Last year, India replaced China as the biggest overall buyer of gold, with a total import level likely to reach a whopping 1,000 metric tons, up from 900 metric tons the previous year.

3. Platinum - Higher. US$958 from US$913 from US$872

4. Silver - Higher. US$15.79 from US$15.03 from US$14.26. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.03 from US$2.09 from US$2.06

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet. May have to wait a long time more.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1865 from 1880 from 1940. Traded HDGE ( Short ETF) and EEV ( 2x Short Emerging Markets )

2. HK Equities - Lower. 18320 from 19288 from 19683. Next Support 18050. Buy HSI 2828 ETF

3. Shanghai Equities - Flat. 2763 from 2763 from 2738; Next Support at 2450; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2540 from 2623 from 2629. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 14953 from 16820 from 17518. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1644 from 1662 from 1668. No Trade

7. Warrants - Traded 62729 and 61459 in HK


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 113 from 117 from 121. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.97 from 2.95 from 2.91

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.71 from 0.71 from 0.71

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 0.99 from 1.00 from 1.01. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. To convert some more SGD for the AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.95 from 2.94 from 2.94. Will not convert my AUD to MYR for the time being

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.13 from 1.12 from 1.08. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weak. 7.7909 from 7.7918 from 7.7821. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR still strong. 4.15 from 4.16 from 4.14; 52 Week Range is 3.27 t 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Flat. 1.45 from 1.45 from 1.42

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 95.94 from 97.03 from 99.61


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - 4 years supply at Tier 3 & 4 cities; 13m vacant homes;
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.75% from 1.84% from 1.92%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more
c. $7 trillion, or more than a quarter, of the world’s bonds now sport negative yields
d. Sweden cut interest rates to -0.5%

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Weaker. 32.00 from 32.30 from 33.21


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk and do provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Feb 21, 2016

buy_sell-300x240.jpg

Time To Sell And Short ?

The markets have rallied sharply in the past week and a lot of people are now thinking about selling or even shorting the markets again.

As far as I'm concerned, if the US markets are strong next week, that means that the markets still have legs, especially when the markets were affected by Options Expiry last Friday.

Next week, the banksters will also be meeting in Shanghai on Feb 26 & 27. What do they have up their sleeves this time ? Thereafter, there would also be new money flowing into the market from the new month of March.

Intuitively, I think that the markets may correct soon. Therefore, I'm trying to "feel" the markets now, with a small position in SPXS (S&P Bear 3x) as well a HK Put Warrant 29179 Strike 19,000.

Once I see confirmation of my "hunch", I will have to quickly load up on my short positions. If I'm wrong, I will need to also quickly cut my short positions.

In the meantime, I have also sold some Equities, including taking some small losses on counters, where fundamentals are deteriorating.

By the way, I still have not taken any action to mitigate my Currency Risk. I need to remind myself to convert some SGD to AUD before the MAS meeting in March.

As for Precious Metals, I'm still waiting for the 50% retracement. That means Gold retracing to about US$1150 and Silver at about $15.

Finally, I still think that it's a Trading Market with a downward bias. That means I should continue to do the following:-
1. Sell into any Rallies
2. Short any Spikes
3. Buy Gold, Silver and Platinum on any deep correction
4. Buy VIX on any sharp Rallies


Commodities:- - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$30 from US$29 from US$31

a. Oil Production vs Demand: 96.5m bpd vs 95m bpd; Glut @ 1.5m bpd ?
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels (66 days of consumption )
c. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
d. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate. Global glut at 0.5m to 2m bpd
e. Iran will be able to supply 0.7m to 1m bpd by 2017; It has 40m barrels in storage; Used to produce 4.2m bpd
f. Demand expected to grow by 0.5m to 1m bpd annually, mainly from Asia; China consumes about 12% of world’s crude.
g. US Oil Capex: US$1t
h. OPEC supply is likely to increase by 1 million bpd next year, most likely from Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
i. US Supply expected to decrease by 600,000 bpd by 3Q 2016

I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will be a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1227 from US$1239 from US$1174. Record US$1920. Vested.

a. There's 324 oz of paper contract for every oz of gold holdings on Comex
b. Output to fall by about 100 metric tons, from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 this year
c. Last year, India replaced China as the biggest overall buyer of gold, with a total import level likely to reach a whopping 1,000 metric tons, up from 900 metric tons the previous year.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$940 from US$958 from US$913

4. Silver - Lower. US$15.36 from US$15.79 from US$15.03. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Higher. US$2.08 from US$2.03 from US$2.09

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet. May have to wait a long time more.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1918 from 1865 from 1880. Traded LABU (Biotech Bull 3x) and XIV (Inverse VIX). Bought SPXS (S&P Bear 3x)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 19286 from 18320 from 19288. Next Support 18050. Sold CICC and HSI 2828 ETF. Traded Galaxy and Nirvana. Bought 29179 Put Warrant 19000 Expiring May 30 for protection

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2860 from 2763 from 2763; Next Support at 2450; Sold 2823 A50 ETF

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 2657 from 2540 from 2623. Sold Suntec Reit

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 15967 from 14953 from 16820. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1675 from 1644 from 1662. No Trade

7. Warrants - Traded 61289, 69245, 61665 in HK


Currencies - Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 113 from 113 from 117. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.99 from 2.97 from 2.95

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.71 from 0.71 from 0.71

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.00 from 0.99 from 1.00. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. To convert some more SGD for the AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.01 from 2.95 from 2.94. Will not convert my AUD to MYR for the time being

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.11 from 1.13 from 1.12. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7761 from 7.7909 from 7.7918. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR weaker. 4.21 from 4.15 from 4.16; 52 Week Range is 3.27 t 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker. 1.44 from 1.45 from 1.45

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 96.60 from 95.94 from 97.03


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (150%; RMB 2t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - 4 years supply at Tier 3 & 4 cities; 13m vacant homes;
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.74% from 1.75% from 1.84%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more
c. $7 trillion, or more than a quarter, of the world’s bonds now sport negative yields
d. Bank Indonesia cut its benchmark policy rate again, by 25 basis points to 7%.

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Stronger. 32.38 from 32.00 from 32.30


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk and do provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Feb 28, 2016

March.png

Money from New Month

It's going to be March soon and new money would be flowing into the markets again. That means that there could be one strong spike in the markets next week.

In addition, there are also a few events to be aware of:-
1. Banksters meeting in Shanghai now
2. NPC Meeting on March 3
4. Fed Meeting on March 10
5. ECB Meeting on March 16

In view of the above, I'm reminding myself to step aside and not short the markets for the next two weeks.

I have also managed to reduce my exposure to Equities to about 31% and would continue to sell into any strong rallies.

As for my Currency Risk, the following are some of my current thoughts:-
1. Monitor GBP. Brexit Vote on Jun 23
2. Will not convert any more SGD into AUD for the time being, eventhough there's a MAS review in March.
3. May convert some AUD into MYR, since the AUD has strengthened from 2.80 to 3.05


Commodities:- - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$33 from US$30 from US$29

a. Oil Production vs Demand: 96.5m bpd vs 95m bpd; Glut @ 1.5m bpd ?
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels (66 days of consumption )
c. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
d. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate. Global glut at 0.5m to 2m bpd
e. Iran will be able to supply 0.7m to 1m bpd by 2017; It has 40m barrels in storage; Used to produce 4.2m bpd
f. Demand expected to grow by 0.5m to 1m bpd annually, mainly from Asia; China consumes about 12% of world’s crude.
g. US Oil Capex: US$1t
h. OPEC supply is likely to increase by 1 million bpd next year, most likely from Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
i. US Supply expected to decrease by 600,000 bpd by 3Q 2016

I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will be a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1223 from US$1227 from US$1239. Record US$1920. Vested.
a. There's 324 oz of paper contract for every oz of gold holdings on Comex
b. Output to fall by about 100 metric tons, from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 this year
c. Last year, India replaced China as the biggest overall buyer of gold, with a total import level likely to reach 1,000 metric tons, up from 900 metric tons the previous year.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$916 from US$940 from US$958

4. Silver - Lower. US$14.68 from US$15.36 from US$15.79. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Higher. US$2.11 from US$2.08 from US$2.03

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet. May have to wait a long time more.


Equities - Mixed

1. US Equities - Higher. 1948 from 1918 from 1865. Bought SPXS (S&P Bear 3x)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 19364 from 19286 from 18320. Support 18050. Sold 29179 Put Warrant 19000 Expiring May 30

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2767 from 2860 from 2763; Support at 2450; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2649 from 2657 from 2540. Sold Suntec Reit

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 16188 from 15967 from 14953. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1663 from 1675 from 1644. No Trade

7. Warrants - Traded 26147, 26190, 61615 and 61289 in HK


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 114 from 113 from 113. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.98 from 2.99 from 2.97

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.71 from 0.71 from 0.71

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.00 from 1.00 from 0.99. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. To convert some SGD for the AUD ?

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.99 from 3.01 from 2.95. To convert some AUD to MYR ?

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.09 from 1.11 from 1.13. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7753 from 7.7761 from 7.7909. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.20 from 4.21 from 4.15; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker. 1.39 from 1.44 from 1.45. Monitoring the GBP; Brexit Vote on June 23, 2016

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 98.15 from 96.60 from 95.94


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - 4 years supply at Tier 3 & 4 cities; 13m vacant homes;
d. HK - Prices declined 11% since Sep 2015. Expecting 25% decline by end 2016. Hong Kong’s home prices has surged almost 370% from their 2003 trough to their peak in Sep 2015.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.76% from 1.74% from 1.75%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more
c. $7 trillion, or more than a quarter, of the world’s bonds now sport negative yields
d. Bank Indonesia cut its benchmark policy rate again, by 25 basis points to 7%.

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Stronger. 33.07 from 32.38 from 32.00


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk and do provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Mar 06, 2016

waiting-meme.jpg

The Waiting Game Begins

The markets have rebounded strongly and it may be time to think about shorting the markets again.

However, before I get too excited, there are a few things on the horizon to be wary of:-
1. US Earnings season is winding down, which means that Buybacks would be coming back
2. ECB Meeting on March 10 (more QE ?)
3. US Feds Meeting on March 15 (not expecting any interest rate hike)
4. 1Q Window Dressing (Middle March to March 31)

In view of the above, it may be more prudent for me to wait first and see happens.

As for my Currency Risk, I'm still waiting for the right time to do the following:-
1. Convert some more SGD into AUD
2. Convert back some AUD to MYR
3. Watching GBP
4. Watching Gold

Finally, I'm reminding myself of an article by Charlie Munger on Preparedness, Patience and Decisiveness. ( You can read the article under "Charlie Munger" in the Market Guru section ).

This is the time to be patient and to prepare the strike. And when the opportunity does present itself, one must be decisive.


Commodities:- - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$36 from US$33 from US$30
a. Oil Production vs Demand: 96.5m bpd vs 95m bpd; Glut @ 1.5m bpd ?
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels (66 days of consumption )
c. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
d. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate. Global glut at 0.5m to 2m bpd
e. Iran will be able to supply 0.7m to 1m bpd by 2017; It has 40m barrels in storage; Used to produce 4.2m bpd
f. Demand expected to grow by 0.5m to 1m bpd annually, mainly from Asia; China consumes about 12% of world’s crude.
g. US Oil Capex: US$1t
h. OPEC supply is likely to increase by 1 million bpd next year, most likely from Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
i. US Supply expected to decrease by 600,000 bpd by 3Q 2016

I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will be a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Higher. US$1260 from US$1223 from US$1227. Record US$1920. Vested.
a. There's 324 oz of paper contract for every oz of gold holdings on Comex
b. Output to fall by about 100 metric tons, from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 this year
c. Last year, India replaced China as the biggest overall buyer of gold, with a total import level likely to reach 1,000 metric tons, up from 900 metric tons the previous year.

3. Platinum - Higher. US$981 from US$916 from US$940

4. Silver - Higher. US$15.54 from US$14.68 from US$15.36. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Higher. US$2.26 from US$2.11 from US$2.08

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet. May have to wait a long time more.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2000 from 1948 from 1918. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20177 from 19364 from 19286. Support 18050. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2874 from 2767 from 2860; Support at 2450; Traded 2823 A50 ETF

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 2837 from 2649 from 2657. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 17015 from 16188 from 15967. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1692 from 1663 from 1675. No Trade

7. Warrants - Traded 62476, 61777 and 62812 in HK


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 114 from 114 from 113. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.95 from 2.98 from 2.99

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.74 from 0.71 from 0.71

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.02 from 1.00 from 1.00. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. To convert some SGD for the AUD ?

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.02 from 2.99 from 3.01. To convert some AUD to MYR ?

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.10 from 1.09 from 1.11. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7701 from 7.7753 from 7.7761. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296. Vested in both HKD and USD. When will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.06 from 4.20 from 4.21; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger. 1.42 from 1.39 from 1.44. Monitoring the GBP; Brexit Vote on June 23, 2016

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 97.34 from 98.15 from 96.60


Others

1. Sentiment - Euphoric ?

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t); US Oil Bad Debts (US$0.2t)

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management:-
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - 4 years supply at Tier 3 & 4 cities; 13m vacant homes;
d. HK - Prices declined 11% since Sep 2015. Expecting 25% decline by end 2016. Hong Kong’s home prices has surged almost 370% from their 2003 trough to their peak in Sep 2015.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.87% from 1.76% from 1.74%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more
c. $7 trillion, or more than a quarter, of the world’s bonds now have negative yields

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Stronger. 33.07 from 32.38 from 32.00


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk and do provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Mar 13, 2016

waiting.jpg

Still Waiting

As expected, the markets are grinding higher. This is despite no real change in fundamentals from a month ago. Commodities are also rising and suddenly, things seems so rosy again.

Intuitively, I think that the rise is due to short covering. And if that's the case, then it would not be too long before the focus shifts back to fundamentals again.

Is China doing that well ? Has Valuation of US Equities become that "cheap" again ? Has Geopolitical issues gone away ? Has the glut in commodities being absorbed ? If things are that great, why are the Central Banksters so desperate ?

Anyway, since the markets are rising, there's a need to respect them. It's no point shorting now, else I would be blown away. In addition, the machines are also probably buying on the momentum. It would also not surprised me, if the 'Plunge Protection Teams (PPT)" are also pushing the markets higher.

Therefore, the strategy now is to sell into the rally. This is the chance to get out. Thereafter, when the rally breaks and a M" is formed on the charts, that's the time to short the markets again.

As for 1Q Window Dressing, I'm starting to think that it would not be eventful as we have had a strong three weeks.

For Next Week, it would probably be an uneventful FOMC Meeting on March 15 and 16. If Yellen raises interest rates, the markets would drop. If she tries to explain why she's not raising interest rates, she would probably shoot herself in the foot. And if she lowers interest rates, she would lose all credibility since US employment is not that bad and the markets are grinding higher.

Finally, I'm still looking for ways to mitigate my Currency Risk:-
1. Waiting to convert some more SGD into AUD, probably after the coming drop in commodity prices
2. Watching GBP and it will probably drop until June 2016
3. As the AUD has appreciated, I have converted some AUD back to MYR
4. Watching USD. If Trump wins the GOP Nomination, the USD could drop further. If I'm China, I would be selling my US Assets now because there would definitely be a trade war with Trump. Therefore, it may not be a good idea to buy the USD till November 2016
5. Watching Gold. Expecting it to correct.


Commodities:- - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$38 from US$36 from US$33
a. Oil Production vs Demand: 96.5m bpd vs 95m bpd; Glut @ 1.5m bpd ?
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels (66 days of consumption )
c. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
d. Iran will be able to supply 0.7m to 1m bpd by 2017; It has 40m barrels in storage; Used to produce 4.2m bpd
e. Demand expected to grow by 0.5m to 1m bpd annually, mainly from Asia; China consumes about 12% of world’s crude.
f. US Oil Capex: US$1t
g. US Supply expected to decrease by 600,000 bpd by 3Q 2016

I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will be a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1251 from US$1260 from US$1223. Record US$1920. Vested.
a. There's 324 oz of paper contract for every oz of gold holdings on Comex
b. Output to fall by about 100 metric tons, from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 this year

3. Platinum - Lower. US$965 from US$981 from US$916

4. Silver - Lower. US$15.51 from US$15.54 from US$14.68. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.24 from US$2.26 from US$2.11

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet. May have to wait for a long time more.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2022 from 2000 from 1948. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20200 from 20177 from 19364. Support 18050. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2810 from 2874 from 2767; Support at 2450; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2829 from 2837 from 2649. Sold 1/2 Hotung

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 16939 from 17015 from 16188. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1697 from 1692 from 1663. No Trade

7. CRRC HK Warrants - Traded 62947, 67476, 68060, 67122, 63162, 68592 and 67157


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 114 from 114 from 114. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.97 from 2.95 from 2.98

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.76 from 0.74 from 0.71

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.04 from 1.02 from 1.00. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. To convert some SGD for the AUD ?

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.08 from 3.02 from 2.99. Converted some AUD to MYR

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.12 from 1.10 from 1.09. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7597 from 7.7701 from 7.7753. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296. Vested in both HKD and USD. When will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.07 from 4.06 from 4.20; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Flat. 1.42 from 1.42 from 1.39. Monitoring the GBP; Brexit Vote on June 23, 2016

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 96.17 from 97.34 from 98.15


Others

1. Sentiment - Euphoric ?

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t); US Oil Bad Debts (US$0.2t)

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management:-
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - 4 years supply at Tier 3 & 4 cities; 13m vacant homes;
d. HK - Prices declined 11% since Sep 2015. Expecting 25% decline by end 2016. Hong Kong’s home prices has surged almost 370% from their 2003 trough to their peak in Sep 2015.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.98% from 1.87% from 1.76%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more
c. $7 trillion, or more than a quarter of the world’s bonds now, have negative yields
d. New Zealand cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% today.

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Stronger. 34.33 from 33.07 from 32.38


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk and do provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page

[winston]

TOL as of Mar 20, 2016

Window Dressing.jpg

1Q Window Dressing

We are now approaching 1Q Window Dressing time. So will it provide further tailwind to the current rally ?

Intuitively, I think that the current rally has been quite strong so there's not much need for Window Dressing this quarter, unless there's a steep drop before March 31st.

However, if the markets wants to rally, then there's no need to stand it's way. In addition, there would be new money coming from the new month of April later. And the "experts" are also saying that US Shares Buybacks would be able to sustain this rally.

Suddenly, it's also rosy again and people are starting to feel confident again. The headwinds from just two months ago have been completely forgotten eg. commodity glut, currency war, slowing Chinese economy, high global debts, decreasing revenues, smaller margins, lower earnings, high USD etc.

In view of the above, it's timely to remind myself of Sun Tzu's quote, "During times of peace, one should prepare for war and vice-versa". This is the time to sell rather than to buy, unless one is a very good momentum trader.

Finally, there seems to be some complacency with respect to the currencies of the Emerging Markets:-
1. Mark Mobius thinks that the MYR is undervalued by 28%. Was he correct on the way down ?
2. A senior economist with Maybank, believes that outflows from Malaysia have peaked
3. The "experts" on TV, believed that China can still "control" things despite China's poor record
4. The Commodity Currencies have rebounded strongly when Yellen did not hike rates

The above has given me some time to manage my Currency Risk. I still believes that when the waves of shortselling arrives, on both Equities and Currencies, I would not be able to run in time. So there's a need to monitor things closely and to use the current calm to fortify my position.


Commodities:- - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$39 from US$38 from US$36
a. Oil Production vs Demand: 96.5m bpd vs 95m bpd; Glut @ 1.5m bpd ?
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels (66 days of consumption )
c. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
d. Iran will be able to supply 0.7m to 1m bpd by 2017; It has 40m barrels in storage; Used to produce 4.2m bpd
e. Demand expected to grow by 0.5m to 1m bpd annually, mainly from Asia; China consumes about 12% of world’s crude.
f. US Oil Capex: US$1t
g. US Supply expected to decrease by 600,000 bpd by 3Q 2016

I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will be a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Higher. US$1256 from US$1251 from US$1260. Record US$1920. Vested.
a. There's 324 oz of paper contract for every oz of gold holdings on Comex
b. Output to fall by about 100 metric tons, from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 this year

3. Platinum - Higher. US$974 from US$965 from US$981

4. Silver - Higher. US$15.82 from US$15.51 from US$15.54. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Higher. US$2.29 from US$2.24 from US$2.26

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet. May have to wait for a long time more.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2050 from 2022 from 2000. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20672 from 20200 from 20177. Support 18050. Bought 25995 Put Warrant on AIA. Traded 22990 HSI Put Warrant ( Strike 20088 29/06/16 )

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2955 from 2810 from 2874; Support at 2450; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 2907 from 2829 from 2837. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 16725 from 16939 from 17015. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1716 from 1697 from 1692. No Trade

7. CRRC Warrants - Traded 66093, 67586, 63327, 68485, 63550 and 63704 in HK


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 112 from 114 from 114. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.98 from 2.97 from 2.95

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.76 from 0.76 from 0.74

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.03 from 1.04 from 1.02. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. To convert some SGD for the AUD ?

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Flat. 3.08 from 3.08 from 3.02. Converted some AUD to MYR

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.13 from 1.12 from 1.10. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7553 from 7.7597 from 7.7701. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296. Vested in both HKD and USD. When will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.05 from 4.07 from 4.06; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger. 1.45 from 1.42 from 1.42. Monitoring the GBP; Brexit Vote on June 23, 2016

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 95.09 from 96.17 from 97.34


Others

1. Sentiment - Euphoric ?

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t); US Oil Bad Debts (US$0.2t)

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management:-
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - 4 years supply at Tier 3 & 4 cities; 13m vacant homes;
d. HK - Prices declined 11% since Sep 2015. Expecting 25% decline by end 2016. Hong Kong’s home prices has surged almost 370% from their 2003 trough to their peak in Sep 2015.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.87% from 1.98% from 1.87%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more
c. $7 trillion, or more than a quarter of the world’s bonds now, have negative yields
d. The Norwegian central bank cut rates by 25 basis points to 0.5 percent

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Stronger. 34.54 from 34.33


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk and do provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page

[winston]

TOL as of Mar 20, 2016

window-dressing 2.jpg

Final Week for 1Q Window Dressing

Next week, we have 3 more days for 1Q Window Dressing. However, I think that it would be quite muted as we have had a very strong market over the past few weeks.

Thereafter, we will probably have a spike in early April, from the new money flowing in, from the new month of April. However, I dont think that there would be a follow-through after that, as there's a blackout period for buybacks, due to the coming US Earnings season.

Intuitively, I think that the market will probably be hitting some resistance soon, as it has been going up for the past few weeks. However, it does not mean that there would be a crash unless:-
1. Oil plunges suddenly
2. USD appreciates sharply
3. China's economic data deteriorates badly
4. There's a major catastrophic or terrorist event
etc.

Anyway, it's probably a good time to fortify one's portfolio. That would include:-
1. Selling any Risky Assets
2. Raising Cash Levels
3. Selling any counters with deteriorating fundamentals
4. Diversifying across Assets, Geography, Industries and Currencies

My gut feel is that this is the calm before the next storm. If one is complacent and do not use this period to protect oneself, one could be in big trouble when the storm does arrive later.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Higher. US$40 from US$39 from US$38
a. Oil Production vs Demand: 96.5m bpd vs 95m bpd; Glut @ 1.5m bpd ?
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels (66 days of consumption )
c. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
d. Iran will be able to supply 0.7m to 1m bpd by 2017; It has 40m barrels in storage; Used to produce 4.2m bpd
e. Demand expected to grow by 0.5m to 1m bpd annually, mainly from Asia; China consumes about 12% of world’s crude.
f. US Oil Capex: US$1t
g. US Supply expected to decrease by 600,000 bpd by 3Q 2016

I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will be a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1217 from US$1256 from US$1251. Record US$1920. Vested.
a. There's 324 oz of paper contract for every oz of gold holdings on Comex
b. Output to fall by about 100 metric tons, from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 this year

3. Platinum - Lower. US$949 from US$974 from US$965

4. Silver - Lower. US$15.20 from US$15.82 from US$15.51. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.24 from US$2.29 from US$2.24

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet. May have to wait for a long time more.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 2036 from 2050 from 2022. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 20346 from 20672 from 20200. Support 18050. Traded 25357 HSI Put Warrant ( Strike 20588 28/07/16 ); Sold 1/2 Cheung Kong Properties

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2979 from 2955 from 2810; Support at 2450; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2847 from 2907 from 2829. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 17003 from 16725 from 16939. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1704 from 1716 from 1697. No Trade

7. CRRC Warrants - Traded 63735, 25357, 60075, 67710 in HK


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 113 from 112 from 114. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.94 from 2.98 from 2.97

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.75 from 0.76 from 0.76

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.03 from 1.03 from 1.04. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. To convert some SGD for the AUD ?

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.03 from 3.08 from 3.08. Waiting to convert some more AUD to MYR

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.12 from 1.13 from 1.12. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7583 from 7.7553 from 7.7597. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296. Vested in both HKD and USD. When will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.03 from 4.05 from 4.07; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker. 1.41 from 1.45 from 1.42. Monitoring the GBP; Brexit Vote on June 23, 2016

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 96.20 from 95.09 from 96.17


Others

1. Sentiment - Euphoric ?

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t); US Oil Bad Debts (US$0.2t)

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in US Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t); Cash in Japanese Corp (US$2t);

4. Risk Management:-
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - 4 years supply at Tier 3 & 4 cities; 13m vacant homes;
d. HK - Prices declined 11% since Sep 2015. Expecting 25% decline by end 2016. Hong Kong’s home prices has surged almost 370% from their 2003 trough to their peak in Sep 2015.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.90% from 1.87% from 1.98%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more
c. $7 trillion, or more than a quarter of the world’s bonds now, have negative yields
d. The Norwegian central bank cut rates by 25 basis points to 0.5 percent

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Weaker. 34.15 from 34.54 from 34.33


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk and do provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page

[winston]

TOL as of April 3, 2016

april.png

New Money Flowing From The New Month Of April

Happy April !

It's a new month and new money is flowing into the markets again. Therefore, there should be one spike in early April. Was Friday's rise that spike or would there be another spike next week ?

Intuitively, I think that it's a good time to start shorting the market again. The indices are touching resistance and I cant see how they continue to grind higher. In addition, there's also a blackout period for buybacks of US stocks now.

The US Stocks are also not cheap but the optimists are arguing that it's not extremely expensive either. PE 17 on the S&P seems to be "reasonable" now, despite weak revenues, margins and profits.

Anyway, fundamentals have not really changed over the past two months:-

1. Oil - I still think that oil recovered due to short-covering and the weaker USD. And if that's the case, why should it continue to rise further? Has the glut of about 1m bpd disappeared ? Has Iran agreed to any production cuts ? And even if they did, it will still take 2 months to work away the current oil in storage. And why would higher oil prices be good for the world economy ?

2. Central Banksters - The Yen and Euro are increasing despite the Banksters doing "whatever it takes" in Japan and Europe. As for China, do you really know what's happening there? As for Yellen, did she really tell you anything new? And the story from Yellen has now changed from "data-dependent" to "global developments", as if the US Fed also has a mandate to "save the world".

3. Commodities - Has the global economy changed that much in the past two months, that commodity prices should be rising, other than a short-covering rally and a lower USD?

4. USD - With a dovish Yellen, the USD seems to be have fallen out of favor and that's also providing some tail-wind for Commodities, Emerging Markets and the profits of US Multinationals. However, if you are not in the USD, then what ?

Anyway, I'm using this period to build up my Short positions in Singapore, HK and the US. I do not think that the Central Banksters can continue to "manipulate" the markets for a long period. I'm not seeing any improvement in the global economic conditions and US corporations are also trading at a "rich" valuation.

Finally, I'm still monitoring my Currency Risk and I intend to use this window to mitigate that risk. I have no problem losing 5% on my Currencies if that would help me prevent a sudden 30% loss later.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$37 from US$40 from US$39
a. Oil Production vs Demand: 96.5m bpd vs 95m bpd; Glut @ 1.5m bpd ?
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels (66 days of consumption )
c. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
d. Iran will be able to supply 0.7m to 1m bpd by 2017; It has 40m barrels in storage; Used to produce 4.2m bpd
e. Demand expected to grow by 0.5m to 1m bpd annually, mainly from Asia; China consumes about 12% of world’s crude.
f. US Oil Capex: US$1t
g. US Supply expected to decrease by 600,000 bpd by 3Q 2016

I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will be a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Higher. US$1224 from US$1217 from US$1256. Record US$1920. Vested.
a. There's 324 oz of paper contract for every oz of gold holdings on Comex
b. Output to fall by about 100 metric tons, from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 this year

3. Platinum - Higher. US$960 from US$949 from US$974

4. Silver - Lower. US$15.05 from US$15.20 from US$15.82. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.17 from US$2.24 from US$2.29

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet. May have to wait for a long time more.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 2073 from 2036 from 2050. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20499 from 20346 from 20672. Support 18050. Traded 25357 HSI Put Warrant ( Strike 20588 28/07/16 );

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3010 from 2979 from 2955; Support at 2450; Are you really excited with a market where there's no transparency, where the numbers cant be trusted, where corruption is widespread etc ? How are you going to be able to make an informed decision based on facts ?

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2818 from 2847 from 2907. Bought DBXT S&P Short ETF

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 16164 from 17003 from 16725. No Trade. Kuroda "whatever it takes" not working ? After 20 years of poor economic conditions at 0.5% interest rates, why would negative interest rates suddenly work now, especially when the demographics are worst now than 20 years ago ?

6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1711 from 1704 from 1716. No Trade. Received Dividends from MAA

7. CRRC Warrants - Traded 67710, 64049, 65726, 66139 in HK


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 112 from 113 from 112. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.88 from 2.94 from 2.98

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.77 from 0.75 from 0.76

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.04 from 1.03 from 1.03. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. To convert some SGD for the AUD ?

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.99 from 3.03 from 3.08. Converted some AUD to MYR

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.14 from 1.12 from 1.13. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7543 from 7.7583 from 7.7553. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296. Vested in both HKD and USD. When will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 3.89 from 4.03 from 4.05; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger. 1.42 from 1.41 from 1.45. Monitoring the GBP; Brexit Vote on June 23, 2016

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 94.62 from 96.20 from 95.09


Others

1. Sentiment - Euphoric ?

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t); US Oil Bad Debts (US$0.2t)

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in US Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t); Cash in Japanese Corp (US$2t);

4. Risk Management:-
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - 4 years supply at Tier 3 & 4 cities; 13m vacant homes;
d. HK - Prices declined 11% since Sep 2015. Expecting 25% decline by end 2016. Hong Kong’s home prices has surged almost 370% from their 2003 trough to their peak in Sep 2015.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.77% from 1.90% from 1.87%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more
c. $7 trillion, or more than a quarter of the world’s bonds now, have negative yields
d. The Norwegian central bank cut rates by 25 basis points to 0.5 percent


8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Weaker. 34.14 from 34.15 from 34.54


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk and do provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page

[winston]

TOL as of April 10, 2016

short.jpg

Time to Short ?

The markets are starting to correct.

So will it gather momentum and snowball into a deeper correction ?

Intuitively, I think that we could see a 50% retracement on the recent rise ie. about a 5% correction from the recent peak.

Thereafter, we will need a very strong catalyst to bring it much lower. That catalyst could be in the form of poor US earnings, a higher USD, lower oil orices, geopolitical issues etc.

In addition, we are also not too far away from "Sell In May And Go Away" and we are also in a black-out period for US Buybacks.

In view of the above, I have been doing the following to fortify my position:-
1. Slowly building my Short positions in Singapore, HK and the US
2. Selling Equities ( I've sold most of my HK position ) and
3. Raising Cash

At the same time, I would need to be mindful that markets can be irrational much longer that I can be solvent. Therefore, I would need to build my short positions slowly, as well as cut my short positions if a new strong tailwind emerges eg. new QE in the US, "Wutongshu" becoming bigger, Draghi and Kuroda both becoming more mad etc.

Finally, I'm still aware of my Currency Risk but I think that I've a bit more time to mitigate it. I'm waiting for the right set-up to execute my trades.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Higher. US$40 from US$37 from US$40
a. Oil Production vs Demand: 96.5m bpd vs 95m bpd; Glut @ 1.5m bpd ?
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels (66 days of consumption )
c. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
d. Iran will be able to supply 0.7m to 1m bpd by 2017; It has 40m barrels in storage; Used to produce 4.2m bpd
e. Demand to grow by 0.5m to 1m bpd annually, mainly from Asia; China consumes about 12% of world’s crude.
f. US Oil Capex: US$1t
g. US Supply expected to decrease by 600,000 bpd by 3Q 2016

I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will be a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Higher. US$1240 from US$1224 from US$1217. Record US$1920. Vested.
a. There's 324 oz of paper contract for every oz of gold holdings on Comex
b. Output to fall by about 100 metric tons, from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 this year

3. Platinum - Higher. US$968 from US$960 from US$949

4. Silver - Higher. US$15.36 from US$15.05 from US$15.20. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.09 from US$2.17 from US$2.24

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet. May have to wait for a long time more.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 2048 from 2073 from 2036. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 20364 from 20499 from 20346. Support 18050. Sold CK Properties and AIA Put Warrant 25995

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2985 from 3010 from 2979; Support at 2450; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2808 from 2818 from 2847. Bought DBXT S&P Short ETF

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 15821 from 16164 from 17003. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1718 from 1711 from 1704. No Trade. Buybacks by MAA

7. CRRC Warrants - Traded 68067, 66708, 63286, 64601, 64556 and 64600 in HK


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 108 from 112 from 113. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger. 2.90 from 2.88 from 2.94

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.76 from 0.77 from 0.75

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.02 from 1.04 from 1.03. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. To convert some more SGD for the AUD ?

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.96 from 2.99 from 3.03.

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.14 from 1.14 from 1.12. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7581 from 7.7543 from 7.7583. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296. Vested in both HKD and USD. When will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 3.92 from 3.89 from 4.03; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker. 1.41 from 1.42 from 1.41. Monitoring the GBP; Brexit Vote on June 23, 2016

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 94.24 from 94.62 from 96.20


Others

1. Sentiment - Euphoric ?

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t); US Oil Bad Debts (US$0.2t)

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in US Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t); Cash in Japanese Corp (US$2t);

4. Risk Management:-
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - 4 years supply at Tier 3 & 4 cities; 13m vacant homes;
d. HK - Prices declined 11% since Sep 2015. Expecting 25% decline by end 2016. Hong Kong’s home prices has surged almost 370% from their 2003 trough to their peak in Sep 2015.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.72% from 1.77% from 1.90%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more
c. $7 trillion, or more than a quarter of the world’s bonds now, have negative yields
d. Reserve Bank of India lowered its benchmark repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 6.5% from 6.75%, th

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Flat. 34.14 from 34.14 from 34.15


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk and do provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page

[winston]

TOL as of April 16, 2016

Sell May.jpg

Sell In May And Go Away?

We are getting close to May and the Summer Holidays.

So would you be raising some Cash and be taking some time off to enjoy the summer, especially when it has been a good two months ?

If I'm still staying in the Western Hemisphere, that would be what I would be doing. And if everyone is going to be doing that, why would the markets continue to grind higher ?

Intuitively, I think that the rally over the past 2 months is due to short-covering, as well as momentum trading by the machines.

And if I'm correct, that momentum can easily reverse, especially when there's now a black-out period for buybacks.

Anyway, I have managed to reduce my exposure to Equities to a net of 16% (Long 19%, Short 3%). I hope to bring that down further, to around 10% before the next crash (if there's one ).

As for my Currency exposure, my SGD exposure is now below my AUD exposure and I intend to reduce my SGD exposure further.

As the MYR has recovered, I should use the opportunity to convert some MYR to USD.

My overall objective is to reduce my heavy exposure to the Emerging Markets and Commodities Currency (SGD, MYR & AUD) as well as diversify more into the USD, HKD & Gold and possibly the GBP depending on the outcome of Brexit.


Commodities:- Mixed

1. Oil - Flat. US$40 from US$40 from US$37
a. Oil Production vs Demand: 96.5m bpd vs 95m bpd; Glut @ 1-1.5m bpd ? Reducing to 0.2m in 3Q ?
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels (66 days of consumption )
c. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
d. Iran is supplying 2m bpd; Used to produce 4.2m bpd; It has 40m barrels in storage
e. Demand to grow by 0.5m to 1m bpd annually, mainly from Asia; China consumes about 12% of world’s crude.
f. US Oil Capex: US$1t
g. US Supply expected to decrease by 600,000 bpd by 3Q 2016

I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies until 3Q or 4Q 2016

2. Gold - Lower. US$1236 from US$1240 from US$1224. Record US$1920. Vested.
a. There's 324 oz of paper contract for every oz of gold holdings on Comex
b. Output to fall by about 100 metric tons, from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 this year

3. Platinum - Higher. US$987 from US$968 from US$960

4. Silver - Higher. US$16.26 from US$15.36 from US$15.05. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Higher. US$2.15 from US$2.09 from US$2.17

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet. May have to wait for a long time more.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2081 from 2048 from 2073. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 21316 from 20364 from 20499. Support 18050. Traded 23538 and 22997 Put Warrant

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3078 from 2985 from 3010; Support at 2450; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 2922 from 2808 from 2818. Added to DBXT S&P Short ETF

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 16848 from 15821 from 16164. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1728 from 1718 from 1711. No Trade. Buybacks by MAA

7. CRRC Warrants - Traded 66708, 65689, 64782, 6523 and 66142 in HK


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 109 from 108 from 112. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker. 2.87 from 2.90 from 2.88

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.77 from 0.76 from 0.77

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.05 from 1.02 from 1.04. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.01 from 2.96 from 2.99

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.13 from 1.14 from 1.14. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7557 from 7.7581 from 7.7543. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296. When will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 3.90 from 3.92 from 3.89; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger. 1.42 from 1.41 from 1.42. Monitoring the GBP; Brexit Vote on June 23, 2016

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 94.70 from 94.24 from 94.62


Others

1. Sentiment - Euphoric ?

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t); US Oil Bad Debts (US$0.2t); US Students Loan (US$1.2t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in US Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t); Cash in Japanese Corp (US$2t);

4. Risk Management:-
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - 4 years supply at Tier 3 & 4 cities; 13m vacant homes;
d. HK - Prices declined 11% since Sep 2015. Expecting 25% decline by end 2016. Hong Kong’s home prices has surged almost 370% from their 2003 trough to their peak in Sep 2015.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.75% from 1.72% from 1.77%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more
c. $7 trillion, or more than a quarter of the world’s bonds now, have negative yields

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher. 34.56 from 34.14 from 34.14


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk and do provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page