Noble Group 01 (May 08 - May 10)

[iam802]

I have been thinking about Noble recently.

One of the key risk for Noble is trading risks.

With the oil price being so unpredictable, it is very easy for trading desks to face losses.

Stories to remind ourselves, CAO, Enron.

Probably a good reminder is to wait for results to be out before commiting to this counter.

Just TOL.

[Aspellian]

I have been looking at Noble as well. Other than trading, Noble also owns actual assets/resources (dun think many pple know of this). You can look at their annual reports to have a feel.
It has a long operating history. Generally the management gives an impression that its prudent (think u can say the same for CAO CEO at the time ) Management is also transparent.

Its price has been strong even though market down. This is one stock which I will buy when market tanked. Follow the market themes, and for me, its high commodities prices. Looking at counters with very high quarterly earnings growth.

[winston]

Hi A,

Opportunity coming now. Down 8.7% already. No news though.

Not vested. Need to understand their business model better. I recall some time back, their shares tanked because of low freight rates. Supposedly, they have a lot of ships and if freight rates comes down, they would be hurt..

Also, I dont quite like their razor thin margins but I guess that is the nature of their business. Take a small percentage of a very big amount and it would amount to quite attractive profits.

Take care,
Winston

[Aspellian]

Hi Winston bro,

Tks for highlighting.. monitoring the situation. trying to remind myself not to catch a falling knife (done that TOO MANY times in my short investment time ). but i do believe that Noble will fly out of the blocks ... but if commodities is a real bubble then its a high-risk stock.

TOL: But with CHina paying >90% more for its steel imports, dun think its an entirely speculative commodities bubble....

[winston]

Does not make sense. Oil is at record so theoretically speaking, coal should not drop..

======================================

Singapore Hot Stocks-Noble, Straits Asia fall on coal plunge
Wed Jul 2, 2008 9:31pm EDT

European carbon credits drop on profit-taking

Current U.S. coal boom likely to last: experts


SINGAPORE, July 3 (Reuters) - Commodities firm Noble Group (NOBG.SI: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) plunged as much as 9.6 percent to an eight-week low after European coal prices declined the most in three years, dealers said.

Noble Group fell to S$2.08 with over 8 million shares changing hands.

Coal miner Straits Asia Resources (STRL.SI: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) also fell, dropping 11.7 percent to hit a one-week low of S$3.08 with over 4 million shares traded.

European coal prices tumbled on speculation a record rally in the past four weeks was overdone, said a Singapore-based dealer.

U.S. benchmark coal skidded more than $20 a short ton on Wednesday before rebounding to close $13 lower in the wake of the European selloff.

[winston]

SemGroup LP

On Tuesday 22 July 2008 SemGroup LP filed for bankruptcy listing its 30 largest creditors which
includes a reference to Noble Energy Inc.

The Board of Directors of Noble Group Limited (the "Company") (SGX: NOBL) would like to
clarify that Noble Energy Inc (NYSE:NBL) is an unrelated entity with no affiliation to the Company
or any of its subsidiaries.

BY ORDER OF THE BOARD
Lisa Yim
Company Secretary
24 July 2008

[iam802]

(not vested) .

3 days of high volume selloff for Noble.

The MFI indicator was also at its peak in May and have seen a gradual decline

My observation has been Noble will be one of the counters that will rally together with the STI. However, it does not seems to be the case today.

Something to take note of.

[kennynah]

impressive man 802....now into mushroom cooking already...very nice picture... looks like start of a downtrend formation...see how the price closed below the recent lows....and the LowerHighsLowerLows formation + big big volume ....spells disaster...maybe....

[iam802]

Pretty impressive results:
---

FIRST HALF 2008 RESULTS - NOBLE GROUP STRATEGY RESULTS IN RECORD FINANCIAL RESULTS
- REVENUES : UP 98% TO RECORD US$19.9 BILLION
- GROSS PROFITS : UP 138% TO RECORD US$778 MILLION
- NET PROFITS : UP 191% TO RECORD US$290 MILLION

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/ ... penelement

[iam802]

(not vested).

But I like the way they handle investor relationships.

They released a fact sheet to summarised all the key ratios or figures that matters

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/ ... penelement