by winston » Mon Jan 27, 2014 5:35 am
Crisis shows power of free-market system
Emerging markets may be in crisis, but not all of them are blighted. For like what happened during the Asian financial crisis in 1997-98, many emerging markets are still seeing fairly decent growth.
Latin America has two groups with different economic philosophies, with one including Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela, which do not believe in globalization and their governments holding the economic power.
The other has Mexico, Peru, Chile and Colombia, where free trade and markets rule.
Those countries hit by problems recently are led by countries like Argentina.
When China's economy was going full tilt, it was fueled by large quantities of Venezuela's oil, Argentina's soybeans, and Brazil's iron ore - boosting their economies.
But with China's slowdown, commodity prices fell significantly, leading countries such as Argentina to suffer heavy losses.
Chile also depends on exports of copper ore and other commodities. But why doesn't it devalue its currency like Argentina? Isn't its slowdown as serious as Argentina's?
The main reason is that countries such as Mexico, Peru, and Chile advocate free trade. High productivity and an open economic can attract more overseas investors.
In Mexico, manufacturing exports account for nearly a quarter of gross domestic product, while Brazil is only 4 percent.
Also, because of these factors, Mexico and Chile enjoy low inflation and increasing foreign exchange reserves - which mean the chances of a crisis will not be too high.
But will the problems caused by Argentina have a domino effect, leading to more problems in other emerging countries?
And will China become the key?
We can talk about this after my column returns in two weeks.
Source: Andrew Wong Wai-hong, The Standard HK
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"