Sugar, Stevia etc.

[winston]

Sugar Market May Swing to Surplus, Hurting Prices, While Wheat Has Deficit
By Thomas Kutty Abraham

Global sugar output may beat demand for the first time in four years if “normal weather” returns to the biggest growing nations, according to Kingsman SA.

There may be a “small surplus” in the year from April 1 as farmers in Brazil and India, the top producers, boost crop area, Jonathan Kingsman, managing director of the Switzerland- based broker and researcher, said in a telephone interview.

A drop in prices in 2011, the first annual decline in four years, may help ease global food costs which climbed to a record in January according to the United Nations’ World Food Price Index. Sugar has more than doubled since the end of May on concern that global supplies will trail demand after crop damage from a storm in Australia and drought in Russia cut output.

“If the weather is normal, we would expect a slow erosion in values for the rest of the calendar year as the risk premium diminishes,” said Kingsman, who’s traded sugar for more than three decades. “We are less bullish because we have marked down import demand.”

Sugar production from Thailand, the second-largest shipper, may jump to a record 7.7 million to 7.8 million tons this year as wetter-than-average weather improves yield, potentially raising exports, Prasert Tapaneeyangkul, secretary-general at the Office of the Cane & Sugar Board said in an interview.

Kingsman in December predicted a deficit of 375,000 tons for the current year ending March. The brokerage will announce a final estimate, which will factor in weather disruptions in Australia and Russia, at the Dubai event. Its first estimate for 2011-2012 will also be released, he said.

The shortage will be exacerbated this year as cold weather in China and floods in Australia cut harvests, Kingsman said last week. The world may lose about 9 million tons of sugar in the year ending March 31 because of inclement weather, he said.

Cyclone Damage
Tropical Cyclone Yasi hit northern Queensland in Australia, a region growing a third of the country’s cane, cutting output potential in the area by about 50 percent, producers’ group Canegrowers said Feb. 4. That may keep exports from the world’s third-biggest supplier at a two-decade low of 2.2 million tons in 2010, according to Queensland Sugar Ltd.

Frost damaged about 1.9 million mu (126,667 hectares) of cane in China’s Guangxi province, the China News Service said on Jan. 12, citing the local agricultural authority. The nation’s central bank today raised reserve requirements for lenders for the second time this year to counter inflation.

“Many of the destination buyers are waiting in the hope that prices will come off” with the Brazilian harvest, Raja said in an e-mail. “The physical off-take is still slow.”


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-1 ... -says.html

[winston]

*DJ China May Refined Sugar Output 179,000 Tons; Up 31.6% On Year

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

Sugar Rising as Thailand Port Congestion Worst in Memory: Freight Markets

Thailand, the world’s second-biggest sugar exporter , is driving up global prices as the worst port congestion in memory restricts shipments.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-1 ... rkets.html

[winston]

60 cent Sugar — oh, how sweet it is (or could be)! by PeterLBrandton

I have commented on the Sugar market off and on for several months. My most recent entry, titled, “Sugar may be in blast off stage,” was posted on August 11.

I posted a chart of the Sugar ETF, SGG, on August 16, informing folks that I was buying it at the market. $SGG advanced more than 5% in value on August 17.

My long-term target in Sugar ($SB_F) has been 60 cents ever since a massive 28-year base was completed on the quarterly graph in September 2009. The market has been in a “three steps forward, two steps back” bull trend ever since. I hate markets that advance like this one has.

http://peterlbrandt.com/60-cent-sugar-o ... -could-be/

[winston]

DJ China Sells 200,000 Tons Of Reserve Sugar, Price Down From Record

China sold all the 200,000 tons state sugar at CNY7,672/ton, down from record price of CNY7,730/ton

Reserves to be replenished by large quantities to be imported in September and October

BEIJING (Dow Jones)--China sold all 200,000 metric tons of sugar offered from state reserves in an auction Monday, at an average price of about CNY7,672/ton, down from the record CNY7,730/ton at the previous auction on August 5, Kunming Commodity Zhongxin Wholesale Market said Tuesday.

The auction brought combined reserve sugar sales in the 2010-11 marketing year ending Sept.30 to around 1.7 million tons, or about 12% of China's annual demand, according to calculations by Dow Jones Newswires.

Since China expects to import large quantities over the next two months to replenish state reserves, the government will likely keep selling reserve sugar to ensure supply before the harvest in November, traders said.

Two 200,000-ton August auctions broke the upward momentum of sugar prices, with the benchmark January sugar futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange closing at CNY7,356/ton Monday, down from the record CNY7,492 on Aug.12.

With its annual consumption of 13.5 million tons, China faces a sugar shortage of at least 2 million tons in the 2011-12 marketing year, since domestic output is expected to increase by only 1 million tons to about 11.5 million tons, analysts said.

Source: Dow Jones Newswires

[winston]

Sugar Slides Most in Six Months on Supply Gain By Marvin Perez

Sugar futures plunged the most in six months in New York and London on signs of increased supply from Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter. Coffee fell, while cocoa was little changed.

Raw-sugar prices in New York are down 17 percent since reaching a six-month high on Aug. 24.

“This created an expectation that there is sugar in the market, more specifically in Brazil, helping pull prices down,” Rafael Crestana, a risk manager for broker INTL FCStone in Sao Paulo, said in an e-mailed statement.

Farmers in Brazil’s Center South, the main growing region in the world, have reaped 338.1 million tons of cane this year, a drop of 11 percent from a year earlier, according to Unica, an industry association.

Mills in the region have produced 20.4 million tons of sugar this year, down 9.4 percent from last year.

“Brazil lost sugar-production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong,” Jack Scoville, a vice president for Price Futures Group in Chicago, said in an e-mail.

“Traders are watching to see how much more sugar India is willing to export, and how much China might need to buy.” India is the second-largest producer and China is the biggest user.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-1 ... emand.html

[profittaker]

Seems like harvest is reduced, why price falls then?

[winston]

“Brazil lost sugar-production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong,” Jack Scoville, a vice president for Price Futures Group in Chicago, said in an e-mail.

[winston]

India May Allow 1 Million Tons of Sugar Exports on Supplies
By Pratik Parija and Prabhudatta Mishra

India, the world’s second-biggest sugar producer, may allow exports after the festival season ends this month and as production surges to a four-year high.

The government may allow exports of 500,000 metric tons of the sweetener by the end of this month and may permit a similar quantity by Nov. 30, Food Minister K.V. Thomas said in an interview today.

The sales need approval of a ministerial panel headed by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, Thomas said.

India’s sugar output may total 25.5 million tons in the year ending Sept. 30, compared with an earlier estimate of 24.6 million tons, he said. The nation likely produced 24.3 million tons last year, Thomas said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-0 ... plies.html

[winston]

Crop Death Seen Boosting Sugar as Stockpiles at 37-Year Low:
By Joe Richter

Beets supplied about 42 percent of the sugar consumed by Americans last year, with imports and domestic cane accounting for the rest, government data show.

U.S. sugar stockpiles are shrinking to the lowest in 37 years after rain and freezing weather damaged the beet crop, potentially reversing a price slump and forcing the government to ease import limits.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-0 ... dities.htm