by winston » Thu Mar 24, 2011 6:20 pm
They were asking you to buy from 3.50 all the way down to 2.82. And they didnt even mention the Convertible Bonds in this latest report ...
Vested. From UOBKH:-
Overseas Union Enterprise (OUE SP) BUY
Price/Target: S$3.04/S$4.25 onds
Mkt Cap: US$2,361.4m/S$2,984.1
Daily Vol: US$5.9m
1-Yr Hi/Lo: S$4.00/220
Stars are Aligned: Fundamentals + Technicals + Newsflow
Analysts: Vikrant Pandey/Vijay Natarajan
What’s New?
We view the current share price as an excellent buying opportunity as it shows deep value and this is reflected in the technical patterns showing a rounding and triple bottom breakout. Newsflow is also supportive of the same.
Fundamentals
Attractive developer play on office upcycle. Overseas Union Enterprise (OUE) is the sixth-largest listed property developer in Singapore, deriving 57% of its value from the office segment. We expect office rentals and capital values to rise 9-10% in 2011 and 17-20% in 2012.
Debt headroom of S$700m-1.2b to fund acquisition plans. Net gearing dropped from 0.58x last year to 0.49x as at end-10. Taking into account Mandarin Orchard’s revaluation surpluses of S$1.02b currently held at its books for a value of about S$125m, the gearing further drops to 36%.
Assuming a target net gearing of 0.6-0.8x will present a debt headroom of S$700m-1.2b for funding its acquisition plans.
Beneficiary of favourable hotel outlook. The hotel segment accounts for about 20% of OUE’s value with Mandarin Orchard strategically located along Orchard Road, Singapore’s prime shopping belt. We forecast hotel RevPAR to grow 17% in 2011 to S$211, driven by a 15% growth in room rates on the back of sustained high occupancy levels of above 85%.
Valuation. Maintain BUY, target price S$4.25. The target price is pegged at parity to FY11 RNAV, taking into account a 20% premium for the office and hotel portfolio, a 20% discount for the retail and residential portfolio, and other competitive strengths and risk factors.
Technicals
Breakout from a Rounding and Triple Bottom
Newsflow
Grade A office capital value up 11.2% in Q1 ( Source:The Business Times, Mar 24) The average capital value of Grade A office space in the Raffles Place/New Downtown area increased about 11.2% qoq to $2,322 psf in 1Q11, according to Colliers International. The property consultancy predicts the full year increase will come in at about 25% to about $2,600 psf.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"