Not vested
PE 18; EPS growth -45% then +20% ?; Yield 5.4%
• Maintain Outperform and target price of S$10.91. Our recent visit reaffirmed our
belief that Venture is on the road to a more meaningful recovery, underpinned by a
broad-based improvement in its business, including HP’s ODM printer projects.
We leave our FY10-12 profit forecasts intact, as well as our Outperform rating and target
price of S$10.91, based on 14x CY11 P/E. This already values Venture below its 10-year historical average to factor in its slower growth. We expect a gradual recovery in its earnings and decent dividend yields to provide stock catalysts.
• Stronger 2H10 for all. Growth should return to all product segments, though test
and measurement should continue to outperform the rest due to a tangible pick-up in
orders from Agilent and a lower base.
Even ODM projects for HP are ramping up nicely, hitting 90k-100k units a month from about 65k in the June quarter.
• Persistent component shortage, but Venture is coping well. Venture continued
to face tight supplies for some parts in 3Q10, but the situation was manageable.
Cash conversion cycle (CCC) days, however, should remain high as it had stocked
up critical components. Venture expects CCC to improve only in 2011.
• Dividends sustainable due to strong free cash flow. Venture reiterated that it is
able to sustain its 50ct dividends per share, which is not surprising given its solid
cash flow business and limited capex.
http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/Venture-2909101.pdf
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"