Press Metal / Koon Poh Keong

Re: Press Metal / Koon Poh Keong

Postby winston » Fri Sep 03, 2021 10:39 am

not vested

Press Metal – BUY

Riding on the favourable structural catalysts of:
a) strong demand from China (which is in its recovery phase);
b) shortages of aluminium supply; and
c) preference for low carbon and greener aluminium, Press Metal is in a sweet spot to reap the positive spillover of stronger aluminium prices.

With P3 Samalaju plant’s expected completion in 3Q21, we believe the additional 28%
smelting capacity and our aluminium spot price assumption of US$2,100 for 2021 could lead to earnings growth of 270% in 2021.

As Press Metal (using mostly hydraulic power as an energy source instead of coal power) is also registering its product under the green aluminium category, we believe such practice could result in Press Metal becoming the preferred environmental, social and corporate governance investing target.

Share Price Catalyst

The spot price has continued to rise to around US$2,500/tonne, well ahead of our spot price assumptions of US$2,100 and US$2,250/tonne for 2021 and 2022 respectively.

Should aluminium prices continue to rise, based on our sensitivity analysis, every
US$100/tonne increase to our spot aluminium price assumption of US$2,250/tonne in 2022 would boost Press Metal’s earnings by 20% annually, assuming alumina cost of US$360/mt (implying about a 15% cost ratio) and carbon anode prices of Rmb4,230/mt.

Source: UOBKH
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Re: Press Metal / Koon Poh Keong

Postby winston » Wed Sep 08, 2021 7:39 am

Press Metal surges to all-time high as aluminium price jumps on supply concerns from Guinea

by Emir Zainul

Guinea — a major supplier of bauxite.

Bauxite is the feedstock used to make alumina, which is further processed into aluminium, and Guinea accounts for more than half of all imports from China.


Source: theedgemarkets.com

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... uinea-coup
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Re: Press Metal / Koon Poh Keong

Postby winston » Thu Feb 10, 2022 9:40 am

vested

Press Metal Aluminium Holdings (PMAH MK)
Favourable Supply-Demand Dynamics To Further Catalyse Earnings


LME aluminium prices reached a 13-year high amid the ongoing twin supply-demand
shock.

Besides systemic catalysts leading to favourable price and cost dynamics, the
42% additional smelting capacity is set to supercharge a two-year net profit CAGR of
+217% from 2020.

We expect 4Q21 to be another record quarter after four consecutive record-breaking quarters.

Raise 2022-23 earnings by 9-10% to account for higher aluminium spot price assumption. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of RM7.80.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... e89694296b
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Re: Press Metal / Koon Poh Keong

Postby winston » Thu Apr 07, 2022 9:09 am

Still Benefitting From Favourable Supply-Demand Dynamics

LME aluminium prices are still hovering at a 13-year high amid the ongoing twin supply demand shock.

Besides systemic catalysts leading to favourable price and cost dynamics, the fully operational smelting capacity is set to supercharge a two-year net profit CAGR of +43% from 2021 even after the record year.

The recent 2% private placement exercise with RM971m being raised is expected to be completed by 2Q22.

No change to earnings forecasts. Maintain BUY. Target price: RM7.50.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... be349b9147
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Re: Press Metal / Koon Poh Keong

Postby winston » Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:08 am

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Press Metal continues to be a prime beneficiary of strong aluminium prices backed by structural supply shortage and robust demand.

Riding on such favourable trends, it has hedged 35% of US$2,400 to US$2,500 (RM10,298 to RM10,727) per tonne for 2023,” said UOBKH Research.

Based on the research firm’s analysis, every US$100 (RM429) per tonne change in its aluminium price assumptions would affect Press Metal’s earnings by about 9% a year.

Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... al-players
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Re: Press Metal / Koon Poh Keong

Postby winston » Tue Jan 31, 2023 9:13 am

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Press Metal Aluminium Holdings (PMAH MK)
A Good Start In 2023; On Track For A Record 2022


After a roller coaster ride in 2022, LME aluminium prices are marching upwards to the
US$2,650/tonne level, which is above our 2023 assumption.

Besides favourable structural demand globally, supply tightness is still stemming from disruption caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, power curtailment in China and sky-rocketed energy prices
in Europe.

Meanwhile, PMetal is on track to register a record earnings year in 2022.

Maintain BUY. Target price: RM6.30.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... 1c2c5715f5
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Re: Press Metal / Koon Poh Keong

Postby winston » Sat Feb 04, 2023 8:06 am

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Press Metal shines as aluminium demand grows

RHB: "We expect the current supply tightness caused by the continued Russia-Ukraine war, the matured stage of the monetary cycle, and the reopening of China’s economy to continue lending support to aluminium prices".

The research firm said despite a moderation in 4Q22 topline growth to 1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in view of softer aluminium prices, core earnings growth should rise 16% as a result of the easing price of alumina.

The average aluminia-to-aliminium cost ratio stood at 13.8% in January, largely unchanged fro 4Q22.

Meanwhile, carbon anode prices eased 7% to an average of RMB6,540 in January versus RMB7,040 in 4Q22.

RHB said its 2023 aluminium price forecast was revised higher to US$2,600 per metric tonne (MT) from US$2,400/MT, with every US$50 appreciation to potentially increase Press Metal's earnings by 4%


Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... mand-grows
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Re: Press Metal / Koon Poh Keong

Postby winston » Tue Feb 14, 2023 1:48 pm

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Kenanga raises target price for Press Metal to RM6.30

by Surin Murugiah

YTD, Aluminum prices have risen 6% to above US$2,500/MT, buoyed by the reopening of China which is the largest global aluminum consumer.

Risks to its recommendation include:
i) a global recession resulting in a sharp fall in demand for aluminum, hurting prices;
ii) an escalation of raw material prices; and
iii) major plant disruptions/closures.


Source: theedgemarkets.com

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/655104
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Re: Press Metal / Koon Poh Keong

Postby winston » Wed Feb 15, 2023 7:42 am

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Press Metal earnings set to rise

Kenanga continues to like Press Metal for its structural cost advantage over international peers.

This is given its access to low-cost hydro-power secured under four long-term power purchase agreements contracts ending between 2023 and 2040.

It said Press Metal has strongly secured alumina supply with stakes in two alumina miners, namely, Japan Alumina Associate (40%) and PT Bintan (25%) which supply 80% of its requirements.

“Green” requirements that have become more stringent, especially in China, will see the shutdown of smelters fueled by fossil energy (especially coal), further tightening the global aluminum supply which is positive for players like Press Metal.


Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... et-to-rise
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Re: Press Metal / Koon Poh Keong

Postby winston » Fri Feb 24, 2023 8:03 pm

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Press Metal delivers record annual earnings in FY22, 4Q profit grows 5.8%

by Hailey Chung

The aluminium smelter posted annual net profit of RM1.42 billion and record revenue of RM15.69 billion in the financial year ended Dec 31, 2022 (FY2022) as sales volume soared year-on-year, compared with net profit of RM1 billion and record revenue of RM11 billion in FY2021.

For the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2022 (4QFY22), its net profit grew 5.8% to RM272.2 million from RM257.3 million a year ago while revenue grew 16.4% to RM3.92 billion from RM3.37 billion.

Believes supply tightness will persist especially in Europe due to the scarcity of renewable energy and the deficiency of reliable energy supply amid ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions.

Although China has increased production capacity last year, weather constraints continued to curtail output intermittently.


Source: theedgemarkets.com

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/656702
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