Hibiscus

[winston]

not vested

Hibiscus Petroleum on a roll

By GURMEET KAUR

“Hibiscus will consolidate Repsol’s earnings from the third quarter of the financial year 2022 (Q3‘FY22). The deal was done at an undemanding price and instantly lifts Hibiscus’ production by three times. It also offers Hibiscus the prospect to diversify its assets portfolio to 17% gas (versus 2% gas previously)

Hibiscus’ net profit for the Q2 of FY22 quadrupled to RM48.49mil, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation or Ebitda stood at RM139.9mil.

For the six-month period ended Dec 31, 2021, net profit rose to RM90.01mil, from RM22.05mil in the same period before.

It is interesting to note that Hibiscus profitability in the Q2 of FY22 was based on an average crude oil price of US$72 (RM301.28) to US$75 (RM313.84).

Hibiscus aims to achieve a target production of 35,000 to 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and maintain its proven and probable (2P) reserves at about 100 million barrels of oil equivalent by 2026.

Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... -on-a-roll

[winston]

not vested

Up, up and away
TP raised to MYR1.90. BUY

Our higher TP, pegged to USD10/boe 2P reserves largely incorporates for higher crude oil price outlook (+USD10/boe), which lifts FY22-24 earnings estimates by 9-28%.

Hibiscus is the best play for a cyclical, rising energy price market - fundamentally sound, financially resilient and offers compelling growth (3-year NP CAGR of 80%) with undemanding valuations.

Extension to Repsol’s PSC, asset monetisation deals on its 2C resources or
additional 2P reserves upside would add to upside.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/254654.pdf

[winston]

not vested

Ends Crown; Marigold is key
Maintain BUY and TP MYR1.90

The termination of UK’s Crown field license has negligible financial/ operational impact.

Securing the FDP approval on Marigold’s field is of greater priority and importance to Hibiscus. Securing an extension on Repsol’s PSC is another positive.

Overall, Hibiscus is the best play for a cyclical, rising energy price market.

It is fundamentally sound, financially resilient and offers compelling growth (3-year NP CAGR of 80%) with undemanding valuations.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/256479.pdf

[winston]

not vested

Hibiscus Petroleum (HIBI MK)
Delivering Value From Higher O&G Prices And Asset Acquisitions

HIBI’s timely acquisition of Repsol Assets was made before the current surge in oil
price.

The uplift in production, and assuming current oil price levels will sustain, will
result in exceptional earnings.

While these have been largely priced in based on consensus forecast, delivering production growth remains important to sustain its track record of enhancing late
life assets.

HIBI is also embracing decarbonisation as it prioritses Anasuria to input carbon
capture tech.

HIBI is trading at 5x forward PE based on consensus FY23 earnings. Consensus’
EBITDA projects for FY22 and FY23 (June FYE) are RM0.8b and RM1.3b respectively,
which roughly matches management’s EBITDA guidance assuming US$100/bbl oil
price for calendar year period of 2022.

Lower oil price and volumes are the key risks to earnings.

Further re-rating will depend on:
a) delivering production upside,
b) acquiring more assets at low costs (although not a required rerating at current market conditions), and
c) delivering major decarbonisation targets.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... 81d2003273

[winston]

not vested

HLIB starts coverage of Hibiscus, target price at RM1.85

by Surin Murugiah

“Buy” recommendation and a target price (TP) of RM1.85 based on the NPV of all of its producing assets’ future cash flows (FCF) — based on each asset’s targeted lifespan.

Mainly from:
i) additional production volumes from the completed acquisition of FIPC (Repsol) assets in Jan 2022; and
ii) significantly higher crude oil prices.

“At about only 4.5x FY23F P/E, we believe that Hibiscus is a compelling case and is conspicuously undervalued given its strong foothold in the upstream energy space.

HLIB is forecasting Hibiscus’s core net profit to increase more than three times to RM336.2 million in FY22 and to rise yet again by another 86% to RM625.6 million in FY23 — representing a superior CAGR of 146%.

“Our average realised crude oil price assumptions for the group is relatively conservative at US$90/bbl for FY22 and FY23,” it said.

Source: theedgemarkets.com

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... rice-rm185

[winston]

not vested

3Q22 results skewed by timing differences

Maintain BUY and MYR1.90 TP

Whilst 3Q22 results were skewed by off-takes timing differences, Hibiscus is on track to meet our FY estimate, with Repsol being a prominent feature in 4Q22.

Our TP is unchanged, pegged to a USD10/boe of EV/2P reserves valuation; undemanding relative to peers’ USD18/boe.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/263667.pdf

[winston]

4Q22 results ahead of expectation

Maintain BUY and MYR1.90 TP

FY22 core net profit of MYR335m was 10% above our estimate, fuelled mainly by the strength of the oil price realized (+34% QoQ) at its North Sabah ops in 4Q22.

Our estimates are unchanged, on stronger operating/ financial outlook in FY23, benefiting from the full-year impact of its Repsol ops.

Our TP is unchanged, pegged to a USD11/boe of EV/2P reserves valuation; undemanding relative to peers’ USD18/boe.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/276496.pdf

[winston]

not vested

4 issues: Taxes, DPS, share buybacks, BODs
Maintain BUY and MYR1.90 TP

Hibiscus has settled the disputed Sabah SST issue and will pay up. While the impact to earnings is about -8-9% p.a.; starting FY23, we see many positives from this. It offers closure on this overhang issue, which has affected sentiment, price performance and disrupted its operations unnecessarily in the past.

Elsewhere, Hibiscus has proposed a final 1 sen DPS, initiated share buybacks & added another headcount to the board.

Our unchanged TP is based on USD11/boe of EV/2P reserves valuations.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/282827.pdf

[winston]

not vested

Hibiscus Petroleum's 1Q net profit lifted to RM135.26mil on high energy prices

Net profit of RM135.26mil in 1Q , which was more than triple the net profit in the same quarter last year.

Earnings per share was 6.72 sen in the quarter under review, up from 2.07 sen in the previous corresponding quarter.

Revenue was also significantly improved at RM604.77mil, as compared with RM246.69mil in 1QFY22.

The sale of oil and condensate contributed RM502.1mil to total revenue while contribution from the sale of gas was RM101.5mil.

It remains on target to sell 7.2 to 7.5 million boe of oil, condensate, and gas for FY2023.

Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... rgy-prices

[winston]

not vested

Hibiscus Petroleum's 1Q net profit triples, as it expects growth in UK to continue

by Adam Aziz

On a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basis, however, net profit fell 37.2% from RM215.51 million for 4QFY2022, as revenue fell 30.36% from a record RM868.4 million.

The UK asset contributed 19.4% of the group’s net profit for 1QFY2023.

Overall, the group intends to increase sales by 50%.

Source: theedgemarkets.com

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... k-continue