Gamuda

Re: Gamuda

Postby winston » Fri Mar 29, 2019 9:57 am

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Secures MYR365m Taiwan job

Maintain HOLD

The latest job win in Taiwan is Gamuda’s first overseas job in recent years.

With the lack of major replenishment opportunities in Malaysia, Gamuda is also vying for projects from Australia and Singapore.

Our FY20E/FY21E earnings are tweaked upwards by 1% each after including this latest job win.

We derive a marginally higher RNAV-based TP of MYR2.75 (+5 sen) after updating for latest orderbook.

Source: Kim Eng

https://factsetpdf.maybank-ke.com/PDF/1 ... 7cc277.pdf
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Re: Gamuda

Postby winston » Fri Apr 12, 2019 10:09 pm

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Gamuda is DBS’ top large cap pick for the construction sector.

The recent news of the government’s proposed takeover of four toll concessions will likely be done at discounted cash flow value, according to DBS. This will allay fears that the Malaysian government will expropriate the toll concessions from Gamuda.

The next major catalyst for Gamuda will now be the approval for the Penang Transport Master Plan (PTMP). Once the PTMP is approved, it will pave the way for new contract awards for Gamuda to vie for.

BUY, TP RM3.50; Current share price RM3.23

Source: Aspire
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Re: Gamuda

Postby winston » Tue Jun 25, 2019 10:51 am

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Gamuda hints at special dividend amid concerns over earnings vacuum

KUALA LUMPUR: Gamuda Bhd’s share price slid 26 sen or 6.8% yesterday to RM3.57 — the biggest drop since last September — despite analysts’ forecasts that the construction giant would declare a special dividend, after selling its toll concession business.

It is said that Gamuda had hinted to some fund managers and analysts during an investors briefing yesterday that a special dividend is in the pipeline, though it had yet to decide on the amount. Gamuda’s cash coffers will be expanded substantially after selling its concession assets.

To recap, the Minister of Finance Inc (MoF Inc) has offered to buy four toll concessionaires in which Gamuda holds equity stakes, for RM4.5 billion in cash after deducting the borrowings that the government will be taking over.

Based on its effective interest in these tolled highways, Gamuda expects its share of the sale proceeds to be at RM2.36 billion, equivalent to 96 sen per share.

“We estimate the group’s gearing ratio will reduce to 0.4 times [from 0.54 times in the first quarter of financial year 2019 (1QFY19)] from SPLASH’s (Syarikat Pengeluar Air Sungai Selangor Sdn Bhd) disposal proceeds, before falling further to 0.2 times from sale of these four highways.

“As such, we do not rule out the likelihood of a special dividend to shareholders, on top of an annual dividend payout of 12 sen per share,” said PublicInvest Research in a note yesterday.

Affin Hwang Investment Bank similarly wrote in a research note that it has gotten wind that Gamuda intends to use the cash proceeds of RM2.36 billion or 96 sen per share to pay a “meaningful special dividend” and reinvest the remaining sum in potential new projects, for instance the Penang Transport Master Plan.

If Gamuda declares a special dividend of 50 sen per share, investors, who bought the stock at yesterday’s closing of RM3.57, would enjoy a dividend yield of 14%. This is on top of the regular 12 sen dividend per share that analysts are expecting the group to declare as well.

However, the market seems to be paying more attention to Gamuda’s earnings prospects without the toll concession business. Already, the government has taken over SPLASH, in which the group held a 40% equity stake.

“We cut our FY20 [ending July 31, 2020] and FY21 net profit forecasts by 20% and 34% respectively, as we expect contributions from the tolled road assets to halve in FY20 and completely removed in FY21, partially mitigated by interest savings from the disposal’s proceeds.

“Realistically, it will take some time for Gamuda to identify new businesses to fill the vacuum,” AmResearch analyst Joshua Ng commented in his research note yesterday.

Ng maintained an “underweight” call on Gamuda, citing construction stocks’ valuations, including Gamuda’s, have run ahead of their fundamentals amid this euphoria.

He pegged the fair value of Gamuda at RM2.64. “Our valuation basis for Gamuda’s construction business [within the sum-of-parts valuation] remains unchanged at 10 times forward earnings, in line with our benchmark forward target P/E (price-earnings) of 10 times for large-cap construction stocks,” Ng wrote.

Source: The Edge

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... ngs-vacuum
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Re: Gamuda

Postby winston » Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:29 am

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Affin Hwang maintains Hold on Gamuda, TP raised to RM4.08

24 Jun 2019

KUALA LUMPUR: Affin Hwang Capital research is neutral on the Ministry if Finance's (MoF) offer to Gamuda Bhd to acquire its toll highway stakes for RM2.36bil.

In a note, it said the offer price was a negative surprise as it came 16% below its DCF valuation of RM2.8bil but it believes the MoF's market-driven approach reduces government policy risks for concession companies.

It would also augur well for Gamuda to participate in future Public-Private Partnership projects, it said.

"The offer price is below our DCF valuation of RM2.8bn based on a WACC discount rate of 5.7-7.3% and at the low-end of market consensus range of RM2.3-3.5bn. We were surprised by the low valuation of KESAS and SMART.

"However, we understand that the offer price is within Gamuda’s internal valuation and hence the offer will likely be accepted," said Affin Hwang.

Should the offer be accepted by Gamuda and the deal completed by the Dec 31 deadline, Affin Hwang will cut its core EPS by 15-28% in F20-21E to reflect the loss in toll highway earnings contribution post-disposal, partly offset by interest income on the RM2.36bil cash proceeds.

"We gather that Gamuda could recognise an exceptional gain of over RM1bn from the disposal, which is not reflected in our FY20E EPS," it added.

The research house downgraded Gamuda to hold and raised its target price to RM4.08 from RM3.70 previously due to strong outperformance in its share price.

Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... cJEpRpS.99
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Re: Gamuda

Postby winston » Fri Jun 28, 2019 9:40 am

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Gamuda Bhd (GAM MK)
9MFY19: Above Expectations, Future Growth Aiming For The The Sky

Gamuda’s 9MFY19 core net profit came in at 85% of our full-year estimate, driven by construction billings with healthy margins and a better-than-expected performance from the property segment.

Separately, Gamuda’s board of directors unanimously accepted the offer for a toll concession assets takeover, while the foregone earnings from the toll business will be offset by the construction arm’s promising outlook (including PTMP).

Maintain HOLD. Target price: RM3.62. Entry price: RM3.20.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... 174035d0b8
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Re: Gamuda

Postby winston » Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:36 am

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Maintain HOLD

9MFY19 earnings were within our but above consensus expectations.

The weaker YoY earnings were expected due to the absence of a contribution from SPLASH and lower construction earnings.

With the potential loss of recurring income from the proposed takeover of its four toll highways,
Gamuda is looking to the PTMP to help sustain its earnings.

Our earnings and RNAV-based TP of MYR3.50 are unchanged.

Finalization of the PDP agreement for PTMP could potentially re-rate the stock.

Source: Maybank

https://factsetpdf.maybank-ke.com/PDF/1 ... 7fbc94.pdf
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Re: Gamuda

Postby winston » Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:23 pm

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What’s New

4QFY19 results should spring no surprises apart from lower property presales

No competing offer for tolls, MOF offer stands

Banking on MRT 3 revival and PTMP

BUY with TP of RM4.65

Potential catalysts: The most important catalyst for GAM, and the sector, is the revival of key infrastructure projects. GAM’s strong reputation, based on work for the MRT Line 1 and 2, as
well as its previous appointment as PDP for the PTMP, will put it in the driver’s seat to clinch other key government projects – high speed rail (HSR), MRT 3, and Bandar Malaysia – when
these are revived.

Valuation:
Our sum of parts (SOP)-derived TP of RM4.65 assumes 50% discount on a RM32bn value for PTMP and discounts for its highway tolls and property business.


Source: DBS

https://researchwise.dbsvresearch.com/R ... =eiagakhea
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Re: Gamuda

Postby winston » Mon Sep 30, 2019 10:30 am

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Gamuda (GAM MK)
FY19: Commendable Performance; Aims To Grow Big


Gamuda’s FY19 core net profit came in above expectation at 107% of our estimate, driven by progress billings at its construction and property arms.

Meanwhile, the government has yet to make an official offer for its proposed toll takeover due end-Oct 19.

Gamuda is hopeful of replenishing its orderbook with PTMP projects and overseas contracts (Australia) to fill the earnings vacuum from the proposed toll disposals.

Maintain HOLD with a higher target price of RM3.65.

Entry price: RM3.25.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... b3969e4eb8
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Re: Gamuda

Postby winston » Mon Sep 30, 2019 10:35 am

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Gamuda(GAM MK)

Share Price: MYR3.56
Target Price: MYR3.65
Recommendation: Hold

Strong end to FY19

FY19 core profit was above our/consensus expectations due to stronger-than-expected
property earnings.

We raise our FY20E-FY21E earnings by 7-19% after revising margins at both construction & property to more normalised levels.

Our RNAV-based TP is raised to MYR3.65 (+15 sen) due to a higher net margin assumption
(5ppts from 3ppts previously) pegged to its sustainable orderbook.

Maintain HOLD pending finalization of the PDP agreement for PTMP and Cabinet’s final decision on its tolled highways.

Source: Maybank

https://factsetpdf.maybank-ke.com/PDF/1 ... e405b0.pdf
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Re: Gamuda

Postby winston » Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:03 am

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Affin Hwang maintains Gamuda as top large-cap sector Buy

KUALA LUMPUR: GAMUDA BHD is seeing good expansion prospects following its purchase of equity interest in a rail constructor in Australia.

The construction player is taking up a 50% stake in Martinus Rail, Australia's largest independent specialist rail constructor, which will speed-track its expansion into the country's infrastructure construction market.

According to Affin Hwang Capital research, Gamuda will provide the balance sheet to support Martinus Rail with its bids for railway projects in Australia worth about A$20bil.

Meanwhile, Gamuda's property sales are expected to rebound after they dropped 14% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM3.1bil in FY19 due to the weak market conditions.

"With the sustained strong overseas property sales and expansion in local sales (more launches at Gamuda Cove, Gamuda Gardens and twentyfive.7 townships), Gamuda is targeting sales of RM4bn in FY20," said Affin Hwang.

The research house maintained Gamuda Bhd as its top large-cap sector buy with a raised target price of RM4.30.

"We fine-tune our FY20-21E EPS (+1-2%) and introduce FY22E. Weak core earnings prospects (3-year CAGR of -5%) are due to potential loss of toll road concession earnings (assumed in our forecasts) following the proposed disposal to the government for RM2.36bn.

"But good prospects to expand its construction and property earnings with funds for reinvestments," it said.

Gamuda recently announced FY19 net profit of RM706mil, which was in line with Affin Hwang's estimate of RM704mil but above consensus forecast of RM615mil.

Net profit rose 33% y-o-y in FY19, mainly owing to lower net exceptional losses of RM14mil compared to RM298mil in FY19.

Pre-tax profit was 20% higher y-o-y to RM974mil on higher property and concession earnings, partially offset by lower construction earnings.

Core net profit fell 13% y-o-y to RM720mil on lower construction and concessions core earnings due to the lower MRT2 line contract value and a loss of SPLASH earnings after its disposal.

Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... IGBCsYp.99
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