Gamuda

[winston]

not vested

Delivering on Australia projects is key

We expect a further share price re-rating as it delivers earnings for its maiden project in Australia, and with increased clarity on PTMP and MRT 3.

Gamuda trades at 13x CY24F P/E and 1.1x CY24F P/BV, just 1 s.d. below its 18-year mean.

Reiterate Add. Our TP remains at RM5.58.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... B36676DCDA

[winston]

not vested

Gamuda kicks off Penang South Island reclamation with RM3.7b Phase 1 works

By Kamarul Azhar

The Penang South Island (PSI) reclamation project, which has been scaled down from three islands to one following a request from the prime minister, will finally kick off with Gamuda Bhd starting Phase 1 of the reclamation works worth RM3.717 billion on July 1.

This involves about 1,260 acres of the total 2,300 acres to be reclaimed for the island known as Island A, which the project developer Silicon Island Development Sdn Bhd — the 70:30 joint venture between Gamuda and the Penang state government — had previously estimated would cost RM6 billion in total to reclaim, with the cost of common infrastructure expected to be RM2.5 billion.

Source: theedgemalaysia.com

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/672222

[winston]

A slew of good news

3QFY7/23 net profit met expectations; Australian projects drove earnings.

Awarded RM3.5bn reclamation works for PSI; Dato Lin’s contract extended for five years starting Jul 2023; second interim dividend of 6 sen declared.

Reiterate Add, with an SOP-derived TP of RM5.58.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... DFFF6DB9D7

[winston]

not vested

3QFY23: Positive surprise, yet again
Results above expectations; maintain BUY

Gamuda’s 3QFY23 results surprised on the upside (for the 7 th time, over the past 8 quarters).

This lifted 9M core PATMI to MYR608m (+10% YoY), at 79%/83% of our/consensus FY23E.

The beat came from its Australia E&C project, i.e. SMW-WT. Alongside MYR3.5b job award for PSI’s Silicon Island reclamation and completion of DTI acquisition, outstanding E&C orderbook has risen to an all-time high of MYR21.5b.

We raise FY23E PATMI by 7%, FY24/25E by 35%/37% each. Our new RNAV-TP is MYR4.80 (+20sen).

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/325435.pdf

[winston]

not vested

Concerns over Gamuda's Sydney Metro West project

Part of a consortium delivering the A$2.16bil (RM6.5bil) Western package of the country's Sydney Metro West (SMW)rail project.

New South Wales (NSW) premier Chris Minns said he was considering cancelling the project after the cost estimate had blown out to A$25bil from an initial estimate of A$16bil.

While a decision over SMW is expected by the state budget in September, news outlets reported it could take even longer for the government to arrive at a final resolution.

The Western package undertaken by the Gamuda joint venture with Laing O' Rourke could be nearing 40% completion with one tunnel boring machine (TBM) in the ground.

Assuming the SMW project is cancelled, HLIB said its FY24 and FY25 earnings forecsts will decline 5.8% and 10.6% respectively.

It said the SMW project forms 22.3% of Gamuda's unbilled orderbook as at end-April 2023.

Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... in-the-air

[winston]

not vested

Is there trouble down under?

Gamuda’s share price lost up to 8% today on concerns about its Sydney Metro West-Western Tunneling Package (SMW-WTP).

Gamuda is confident that the project is intact, with 40% completion and up-to-date payments. In our view, worst case is a 12-13% FY24-FY25F EPS cuts.

We reiterate our Add call with an unchanged SOP-derived TP of RM5.58.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... 4701A3DCD4

[winston]

not vested

Sell-down on Gamuda shares a good buying opportunity, says Kenanga

By Surin Murugiah

Kenanga said it is highly unlikely that Gamuda’s tunnelling package will be affected, as it is almost halfway through at 40%.

“It is also unlikely to cut the cost of the tunnelling packages and it is costly to scrap the project at this stage.

“At worst, should the package be terminated, it would reduce Gamuda’s FY2024 net profit by 8%.

Assuming the remaining 60% works to be circa RM3.9 billion with an operating margin of 11%, total profit contribution would be RM300 million over the next three years.

“We believe the RM429 million loss in the market cap yesterday (July 31) is unwarranted,” it said.

Kenanga said it continues to like Gamuda for:
(i) it being the front-runner for the tunnelling job for the MRT3,
(ii) its job wins in Australia and Singapore that speak eloquently for its competitiveness in the international market,
(iii) its strong balance sheet after the disposal of its toll highways,
(iv) its strong earnings visibility, underpinned by a robust outstanding order book of RM21.5 billion, and
(v) its efforts to expedite growth in the renewable energy space, in line with global sustainability goals.

Source: theedgemalaysia.com

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/676871

[winston]

not vested

Gamuda’s Aussie tunnel contract remains intact

CIMB: Construction progress on the SMW-WTP has already reached 40% completion, with one tunnel boring machine working and another to be deployed in two months’ time,”

CGS-CIMB Research estimated that in a worst-case scenario, that is, assuming a cancellation of the SMW-WTP and no compensation, this could shave 12% to 13% from its earnings forecasts for Gamuda for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2024 (FY24) and FY25.

Gamuda aimed to double its Australian revenue to a sustainable A$3bil (RM9.1bil) per year in two to three years.

Source: The Star

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... ins-intact

[winston]

not vested

Sizeable MYR3.03b E&C win in Taiwan
Positive on win; maintain BUY

Gamuda’s recent E&C win has lifted its outstanding orderbook by c.15% to MYR23.6b, further strengthening its earnings visibility.

We maintain our earnings forecasts, having already imputed job wins in our model.

No change to our SOP-TP and BUY call.

We remain upbeat on Gamuda’s prospects for major E&C jobs in Malaysia and overseas.

Its strong balance sheet (0.25x net gearing end-FY23) supports its MYR25b job win target for
the next 3-15 months.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/346308.pdf

[winston]

not vested

Building a recurring income base with hydro

Gamuda formed a JVA for a PFI hydroelectric power plant project in Sabah.

The project adds RM3bn to orderbook, strengthens ESG initiative and builds longer term recurring income base.

Reiterate Add and SOP-derived TP of RM5.65

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... 6DF728B4BA