Genting Malaysia

Re: Genting Malaysia

Postby winston » Fri Nov 29, 2019 10:24 am

not vested

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK)

Share Price: MYR3.11
Target Price: MYR3.25
Recommendation: Hold


All eyes on Empire Resorts

3Q19/9M19 results outperformed our expectations largely due to higher-than-expected VIP win rate.

Win-rate-normalised EBITDA margins were within our expectations.

We raise our long-term EBITDA estimates by 3-4%. That said, our SOTP-based TP is slightly lower at MYR3.25 (MYR3.27 previously) even though we roll forward our valuation base year to end-FY20E as we raise our WACC.

Investors will stay on the side lines until they get a handle of the losses generated by Empire Resorts, we opine.

Source: Maybank

https://factsetpdf.maybank-ke.com/PDF/1 ... 494a85.pdf
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Re: Genting Malaysia

Postby winston » Fri Nov 29, 2019 1:22 pm

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Genting Malaysia (GENM MK)
3Q19: Sweetening Pot

GENM continues to deliver a strong and consensus-beating EBITDA, reflecting another quarter of above-theoretical VIP win rate boosted earnings, and also qoq volume recovery in the VIP segment.

Expect GENM’s rerating gravy to thicken to reflect catalysts as such significant retention of dividends and the opening of 20th Century Fox theme park by 3Q20.

Maintain BUY. Target price: RM3.60.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... 2b24f23f9e
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Re: Genting Malaysia

Postby winston » Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:41 am

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Genting Malaysia
3Q19: Gaming weakness across the board


9M19 core net profit was below our expectations at 71.8% of our full-year forecasts but beat Bloomberg consensus (78%) due to weak gaming profits.

Malaysia EBITDA declined 4.8% yoy to RM1,633m due to 10% lower nonVIP gaming volume in 9M19.

FY19-21F EPS cut by 9.9-16.6% to reflect weak gaming profit and potential losses from Empire Resorts (ER). GENM remains a Hold.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... 615A2B8A0D
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Re: Genting Malaysia

Postby winston » Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:05 am

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Genting Malaysia

GENM’s valuations are compelling, after two years of selldown due to gaming duty hike and
RPT-linked acquisition of loss-making US-based Empire Resorts. GENM currently trades at
-1SD EV/EBITDA of 7x.

However, Empire’s recent EBITDA turnaround and significant prospective growth in 2020
should allay fears of excessive cash calls, and investor focus should slowly return to GENM’s generous dividend yield and the expected Fox outdoor theme park opening in 3Q20.

Share Price Catalyst

Sustainable high dividend yield of 5.9% similar to 18 sen per share DPS in 2017 and 19 sen
in 2018, taking into account that GENM’s capex cycle for its outdoor theme park
construction is nearing completion.

Opening of Fox outdoor theme park in 3Q20.

Empire’s big improvement in EBITDA from 2020 onwards as guided in its filing with the US
SEC.

Source: UOBKH
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Re: Genting Malaysia

Postby winston » Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:50 pm

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Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) : FULLY VALUED
Mkt. Cap: US$4,214m I 3m Avg. Daily Val: US$6.4m

Price Target 12-mth: RM2.90 (7% downside) (Prev RM2.90)

High hold percentage partially offset casino duty

3QFY19 earnings dampened by higher casino duty; mitigated by high hold percentage in mass/premium segments

9MFY19 earnings came within expectations

Outdoor theme park scheduled to open in 3QFY20

Maintain FULLY VALUED with RM2.90 TP

Source: DBS

https://researchwise.dbsvresearch.com/R ... =ejjjjkhea
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Re: Genting Malaysia

Postby winston » Wed Jan 01, 2020 3:05 pm

Genting Malaysia bets on better hand in 2020 with theme park launch

by Joyce Goh

THE year has not exactly been the best for Genting Malaysia’s stock, which has been underperforming and is trading at valuations near 10-year lows.

Will the gaming company be dealt a better hand in 2020?

Some in the investing community are hopeful that it might open its outdoor theme park earlier than the second half of next year.

“The tentative plan is to open it in the third quarter of next year but if all goes better than expected, there is an expectation that it could be earlier than that. Some rides are already being tested,” says a gaming analyst who made a site visit.

A senior executive with Genting Group declined to comment, only stating that the group will make an announcement on the opening when the time is right.

Amid considerable interest in the launch date, Genting Malaysia’s share price has slipped to levels that have courted the interest of analysts.

Macquarie Equities Research recently initiated coverage on the counter with an “outperform” rating and a target price of RM3.75 — a 14% upside to last Wednesday’s close of RM3.22.

“Despite the company’s margins performing below their structural potential, Macquarie Research sees a lot of opportunities in the longer term and is positive on Genting Malaysia, and believes that the company is focused on rebuilding investor confidence, which reduces near-term risks,” it states in a Dec 12 report.

Genting Malaysia is its “highest conviction pick in Asia gaming”.

The foreign research house does not believe the stock’s seven times enterprise value multiple reflects the group’s high base mass exposure in the country, which offers consistent cash flow.

Rather, it believes investors in Genting Malaysia should apply a similar multiple as US regional gaming stocks that are trading at about eight times, given similarities in free cash flow (FCF) generation and mature growth outlook.

Macquarie Research’s RM3.75 target price was arrived at by applying eight times multiple to its 2021 forecast, implying an 18% upside in addition to Genting Malaysia’s stable 6% dividend yield.

“Meanwhile, with FCF ramping in 2021 and beyond, Macquarie Research sees Genting Malaysia’s 11% FCF yield supporting both deleveraging and enhanced capital returns to shareholders,” it adds.

Another foreign research house, UOB Kay Hian Research, upgraded its call on Genting Malaysia to an “overweight” last month, and upped its target price to RM3.60 from RM3.16 in November.

“The outdoor theme park will significantly enhance Genting Malaysia’s status as a provider of world-class entertainment and further boost its tourist patronage. Assuming 9,000 visitors per day, average spending of RM260 per pax (including F&B spending) and Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) margin of 30%, Genting Malaysia can rake in RM256.2 million Ebitda per year,” it estimates.

Also turning more positive about the stock is RHB Research, which has upgraded its earnings estimates and backed its “buy” call with an increased target price of RM3.96.

“As we obtain greater clarity on the outdoor theme park plus Empire Resorts’ recent positive Ebitda quarter, we believe sentiment will improve, especially on a strong set of results, while valuations remain at trough,” RHB Research notes in a Nov 29 report.

“We increase our FY19F to FY21F earnings [by] 3.3%, 0.4% and 2.2% [respectively], as we lift our margins assumption following the strong set of results. Accordingly, we lift our target price. While the environmental, social and governance de-rating from the related-party transaction is not a distant memory yet, we believe the steep price correction (more than RM2 billion) has been overdone,” it adds.

Maybank Investment Bank Research opines in a Nov 29 report that investors will “stay on the sidelines until they get a handle of the losses generated by Empire Resorts”.

It expects 4Q2019 to be sequentially stronger for Resorts World Group due to “seasonally more visitors”.

“That said, this will be moderated by losses from 49%-owned Empire Resorts (not listed) whose acquisition was completed on Nov 15. We roll forward our valuation base year to end-FY2020E from end-FY2019E. That said, we also raise our weighted average cost of capital to 12.4% from 11.1% as we raise our beta to 1.3 (five-year average) from 1.1 to reflect recent news flows. This trims our sum-of-the-parts-based target price by two sen to RM3.25,” it notes.

Source: The Edge

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... ark-launch
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Re: Genting Malaysia

Postby winston » Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:27 am

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Genting Malaysia (GENM MK)
Prosperous Year Ahead


GENM’s share price is expected to gain momentum after two years of retracement due to the legal entanglement in the outdoor theme park development, casino duty hikes and RPT-linked acquisition of US-based Empire Resorts.

Catalysts emerging this year include generous dividends to be announced in Feb 20, stronger turnaround at Empire and a potential early opening of the outdoor theme park which coincides with Visit Malaysia Year 2020.

Maintain BUY. Target price: RM3.78.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... ac8eda76f2
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Re: Genting Malaysia

Postby winston » Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:27 pm

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Genting Malaysia (GENM MK)
4Q19: Winning Odds


4Q19 EBITDA was largely in line with our conservative forecast, as Malaysia VIP and the mass segment recorded softer GGR on declining volumes and normalising win rate.

Associate Empire recorded a loss which we attribute to impairment.

While the COVID19 impact brings near-term uncertainty, we expect good reactions to the generous dividends (yielding >6.8%) and the scheduled opening of its outdoor theme park in
3Q20.

Maintain BUY. Target price: RM3.78.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... 308e0a2efc
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Re: Genting Malaysia

Postby winston » Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:19 pm

Genting Malaysia (GENM MK)
Streak Of Bad Luck Surely Cannot Extend


A rare opportunity has emerged to accumulate GENM which has fallen 15% ytd to our trough value of RM2.80, in reaction to issues beyond its control such as short-term uncertainties tied to last weekend’s dramatic change in government and the COVID-19 outbreak.

While waiting for the opening of its outdoor theme park in 3Q20 to catalyse this deep-value stock, investors are rewarded with generous dividends.

Maintain BUY.
Target price: RM3.78.

20 sen dividend in 2019 a pleasant surprise.

GENM declared a special dividend of 9 sen and final dividend of 5 sen in 4Q19, bringing full-year dividend to 20 sen and implying an impressive yield of 7.1% based on the current price.

The rising trend of generous dividends (payout of 81%), which neatly beat earlier street expectation of falling dividends, can be sustained by operational cash flows and is highly attractive in this low interest rate environment.




Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... 3e3f118fb3
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Re: Genting Malaysia

Postby winston » Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:49 am

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Value emerges on panic selling

Covid-19 leads to temporary closure of RWG, RWNYC and Catskills.

We cut FY20F core EPS by 29.2%. Potential extension in MCO could further hit our FY20F forecast but the impact on fair value is minimal.

Upgrade from Hold to Add as FY21F EV/EBITDA is at -2 s.d. below 10-year mean; TP trimmed by 3% to RM2.90.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... C2BA27EC6A
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