Interview with Trendlines

Interview with Trendlines

Postby winston » Sat Oct 09, 2010 9:03 am

After a break of some time, we are please to introduce Trendlines this week:-


1) InvestIdeas: What can you tell us about your background ?

I am an engineer by training, in my mid-30s, and a part-time trader/investor mostly based in Singapore. Learnt investing/trading the-DIY-way.

Started out as a Value Investor. During the crash of 2007, realised the importance of sentiment in the market, and branched out into trading.

After initial success, paid back all the trading capital and more, due to excessive trading and the lack of a money management strategy. Those were my "tuition fees". If one wants to learn to swim in water, one has to swallow a few mouthfuls of it at least

Realised that money management strategies + portfolio allocation is more important than knowing market direction, and started researching them. Elliott Wave Theory gave me an intuitive framework for the market, and I have not looked back since.


2) InvestIdeas: How long have you been investing / trading ?

Investing for about 5 years, and trading for 3, and always learning. A newbie really, compared to the wealth of experience on this forum.


3) InvestIdeas: What is your Investment Strategy ?

It's a Mixed Bag. Both VALUE INVESTING and TRADING have a common underlying theme - markets react to SENTIMENT in the short-medium term, and FUNDAMENTALS in the long-term.

(Ben Graham - "In the short run the market is a voting machine. In the long run it's a weighing machine.")

The Elliott Wave Theory(EWT), first developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott, essentially describes market sentiment in price form on a chart. This method resonated with me inuitively.

Coupled with a few other indicators and simple money management strategies, this has become the framework behind my trading methodology.

Initial Allocation from Savings (Will change with age)
40% - Unit Trusts (Active)
40% - Stocks/ETFs (Passive)
10% - Trading
10% - Cash

Unit Trusts -> All of them in emerging markets, as the only direction in the long-term is UP, and so the surest way to participate in the growth. I do medium-term rebalancing(every 6 months or so) between individual emerging markets & money market funds, using EWT.

Stocks -> Buy & Hold Dividend yielding stocks/reits, with a few Growth stocks thrown in. But, i never buy a stock without reading its chart.

Trading -> Mostly using leveraged ETFs / Warrants. 1-2 trades a month(best ideas), maximum 4, to supplement investment income.


4) InvestIdeas: What are your favorite books on trading/investing?

Elliott Wave Principle, Frost & Prechter
How to Make Money in Stocks, William J. O'Neil
Long-Term Secrets To Short-Term Trading, Larry Williams
The Intelligent Investor, Benjamin Graham
Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Taleb


5) InvestIdeas: What are your investment vehicles ?

Investment: Unit Trusts, Stocks/ETFs, Property, ILP
Trading: Leveraged ETFs, Warrants, Stocks


6) InvestIdeas: What has been your best investment so far?

- I have to say, it is the time spent studying and applying Elliott Wave Theory.

- China was one of the first markets to recover after the recent crash. Piled into selected Chinese instruments in Jan-09 at the beginning of the Elliott Wave A correction upwards, and got out in May-09 (too early), for a 50% profit.


7) InvestIdeas: What has been your worst investment?
Bouyed by initial success (beginners luck?), I started trading excessively. This coupled with leverage eventually erased all my trading capital and more.

Learnt to enforce trading rules & limit my trades to the best opportunities only. (Value Investing parallel: Swing only at the best trade setups, market's always there for you)


8) InvestIdeas: What advice do you have for a young/newbie who is just starting out ?

a) Know thyself, Know thy risk appetite, Know that you need to lose to learn how to win. (Figure out your strengths & weaknesses)

b) ALWAYS have a money management strategy before the trade. (Stop-loss, Trailing stop-loss, Profit % target, etc)

c) Take responsibility for your investing/trading decisions. Collaborate but do your own research.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 104556
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Interview with Trendlines

Postby iam802 » Sat Oct 09, 2010 9:51 am

winston wrote:...

After initial success, paid back all the trading capital and more, due to excessive trading and the lack of a money management strategy. Those were my "tuition fees". If one wants to learn to swim in water, one has to swallow a few mouthfuls of it at least

..


Trendlines,

Thanks for sharing your charts and insights.

The "tuition fees" reminds me of this scene...and I guess it is a path where we have to go through in order to appreciate the wisdom behind.

Hidden Content:
Sifu.png
1. Always wait for the setup. NO SETUP; NO TRADE

2. The trend will END but I don't know WHEN.

TA and Options stuffs on InvestIdeas:
The Ichimoku Thread | Option Strategies Thread | Japanese Candlesticks Thread
User avatar
iam802
Big Boss
 
Posts: 7268
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 1:14 am

Re: Interview with Trendlines

Postby lithium » Sat Oct 09, 2010 10:10 am

Agree agree agree 100%! Really great stuffs. :D

I love to use trendlines as much as you do. It works exceptionally well for the past 1 year. But must bear in mind market is not always linear.

At this young age, maybe you can be a bit more aggresive, why believe in fund managers? I believe you more than those unit trust fund managers. Haha :D just ignore me, I'm a gambler.

Regarding Elliot waves, I always try to count lei count hui, count dou tau tong. Maybe I have not dwell into it yet. Maybe I should read that book you recommend. But I'm planning to read intelligent investor first. Because 1 day when our fund size reach multi million (in my dreams) we can't trade that much anymore.

Very happy to have you in this forum. I think we can have lots of fun.
"Play Great Defence, not Great Offence "
User avatar
lithium
Boss' Left Hand Person
 
Posts: 720
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2009 7:47 pm

Re: Interview with Trendlines

Postby millionairemind » Sat Oct 09, 2010 10:49 am

Thanks for sharing TL!!!

We are all here to learn from each other. :)
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
User avatar
millionairemind
Big Boss
 
Posts: 9605
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 8:50 am
Location: The Matrix

Re: Interview with Trendlines

Postby kennynah » Sat Oct 09, 2010 11:01 am

i feel like i know you already :lol: :lol:

welcome...enjoy....HUat HUat :!: :!:
Options Strategies & Discussions .(Trading Discipline : The Science of Constantly Acting on Knowledge Consistently - kennynah).Investment Strategies & Ideas

Image..................................................................<A fool gives full vent to his anger, but a wise man keeps himself under control-Proverbs 29:11>.................................................................Image
User avatar
kennynah
Lord of the Lew Lian
 
Posts: 18582
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 2:00 am
Location: everywhere.. and nowhere..

Re: Interview with Trendlines

Postby trendlines » Sat Oct 09, 2010 8:10 pm

iam802 wrote:The "tuition fees" reminds me of this scene...and I guess it is a path where we have to go through in order to appreciate the wisdom behind.


A picture speaks a thousand words.
Analysis of World Market Indices using Elliott Wave Theory, Trendlines, & Fibonacci - http://trendlines618.blogspot.com
User avatar
trendlines
Coolie
 
Posts: 107
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:12 am

Re: Interview with Trendlines

Postby helios » Sat Oct 09, 2010 8:47 pm

TL,

Your blog is my bookmark.

Thanks for sharing!
helios
Permanent Loafer
 
Posts: 3545
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 8:30 am

Re: Interview with Trendlines

Postby tonylim » Sun Oct 10, 2010 12:28 am

Hi TL,

Many thanks for sharing.

All the best.

Tony Lim
查颜观色,静观其变,审时度世.
User avatar
tonylim
Boss' Left Hand Person
 
Posts: 971
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2008 9:39 am

Re: Interview with Trendlines

Postby trendlines » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:48 am

Thank you iam802, lithium, MM, K, SS, TL for your welcome msgs.

lithium wrote:At this young age, maybe you can be a bit more aggresive, why believe in fund managers? I believe you more than those unit trust fund managers. Haha :D just ignore me, I'm a gambler.


Lithium, some fund houses in Emerging Markets do outperform the benchmarks all the time, even after their mgmt fees. As for ETFs, most of them traded on SGX involve multiple currency risks (traded in US$), i prefer to use selected UTs to ride the medium-long term trends in emerging market indices.

lithium wrote:Regarding Elliot waves, I always try to count lei count hui, count dou tau tong. Maybe I have not dwell into it yet. Maybe I should read that book you recommend. But I'm planning to read intelligent investor first. Because 1 day when our fund size reach multi million (in my dreams) we can't trade that much anymore.


Elliott Wave Theory is not an exact science. Reading waves in real-time requires one to take into consideration volume, momemtum and sentiment trends, along with technical tools such as trendlines and ratios. Chart's must be read in different time-frames to get the best results. It is a good tool to guage the maturity of a trend.

Probably a good idea to learn from Uncle Ben(not the helicopter one) first. :D I firmly believe that trading cannot be one's sole investment vehicle, unless one is a full-time trader. Moreover, there will be too much pressure to perform, which works against a trader's psyche.
Analysis of World Market Indices using Elliott Wave Theory, Trendlines, & Fibonacci - http://trendlines618.blogspot.com
User avatar
trendlines
Coolie
 
Posts: 107
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2010 9:12 am

Re: Interview with Trendlines

Postby Cheng » Mon Oct 11, 2010 3:58 pm

Do you need a trendline to tell you where the market is heading? hehe :)

Welcome welcome! Hope to hear more from you!

Huat arh!
Cheng :D
"The really big money tends to be made by investors who are right on qualitative decisions." Warren Buffett

"Risk no more than you can afford to lose, and also risk enough so that a win is meaningful." Ed Seykota

Scan with FA, Time with TA, Volatility is my Friend. :)
User avatar
Cheng
Foreman
 
Posts: 417
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2008 2:18 pm

Next

Return to Interview with Members

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest