HengHeng's Trading Corner

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Postby HengHeng » Mon Jun 02, 2008 12:34 pm

I've mentioned before i think last week that i'm not expecting much movement this week. Though i'm expecting some corrections in general stocks markets but we will need to pay attention to oil prices as oil prices might push markets up due to oil and gas industries.

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As hurricane season starts , we might see more upside on oil and related commodities. But it pens down to the fear on the market.

Was reading somewhere on Iran's oil not being able to export due to rising prices of crude. Thus higher oil prices are forcing refineries doing heavy crude to shut down as they are operating at a loss. It seems like iran has its oil parked on its tankers with no buyers. We might see oil prices dropping if Iran is willing to let go at a lower price.

So do pay attention to oil volatility. It would apply for commodities like gold as well.

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I'm pretty bearish on Aussie as retail numbers start to show slowness in growth which might be advance warning that the commodity growth might not be good for everyone in aussie.
Beh Ki Jiu Lou , Beh lou Jiu Ki lor < Newton's law of gravity , but what don't might not come back

In the game of poker , "if you've been in the game 30mins and you don't know who the patsy is, you are the patsy
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Re: HengHeng's Trading Corner

Postby HengHeng » Tue Aug 05, 2008 12:17 pm

As August approachs , i would start to look for bargains or potential good bussinesses to invest into. I would still be only investing the main amounts of it towards the end of the year but many investments has already caught my eyes.

I would talk on some of them here.

1. Financials - Favor of the year !! Usually the most battered down stocks with Citigroup and WM catching my eye at the moment.

2. Aussie FDs - Despite its recent drop in value but i think it is still a worthy investment until the end of the year with rates unlikely to go down til then. Though i'm pretty negative on the property sectors over there i think i mentioned that it might go into a 2 year downtrend i think as global rates starts to come down and investments are deemed too expensive in aussie.

3. Oil stocks put options - From Obama's speechs i think i saw some negativity into this companies as he aims to dig wealth from these companies to aid the economy. ( which i think is poetic justice because bush & coy would be deeply affected by this)

Though i'm still pretty bullish on oil. Yes it might ease but i strongly believe it will not fall below 80 at least til next year.

4. SG properties towards the 3rd quater of next year , i think abit early to say but i think i still voice out first later people say i never say early. LOL

5. Ultility related or Basic neccessities related companies like : Delgro , Comfort , Semb waste , SMRT etc etc why ? they won't be affect by any shocks i.e oil spikes, wage inflation , GST inflation etc ... as all these shocks will be transferred back to its customers.
Beh Ki Jiu Lou , Beh lou Jiu Ki lor < Newton's law of gravity , but what don't might not come back

In the game of poker , "if you've been in the game 30mins and you don't know who the patsy is, you are the patsy
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Re: HengHeng's Trading Corner

Postby HengHeng » Thu Sep 25, 2008 9:05 am

Now bets are on the 700 billion rescue plan. Assuming if they pass it , i think markets might see a bottom and there might or might not be a rally following this but at least the value decaying of most assets would slow down and might even turn the other way round assuming if the plan sees to work. We might see alot of positives assuming if thats happening. I'm looking forward to buying some financials and resources going forward but this is for long term (at least 2 years). I see some good potentials in certain sectors - mainly sound financials , resource sectors , transport.


My views ahead , it might be pretty USD weak assuming if this rescue plan is delayed but once passed we might see further dollar strenght as US seeks to stop its value decay and home foreclosures. I'm pretty USD bullish in the long term view and short term bearish.


As the 4th Quater starts ,

This might be the best time of your life this time round. Whether make it or break it. As depression(in US) looms around the corner due to the collapse of credit to the US economy , I'm looking to a global slowdown though might or might not be the size of the world depression.

Now balanced on one thin line , whether if the 700 billion plan works. IF it should work , then asset prices are likely to fall first before staying there for some times due to buyers lacking confidence . This to me is the best time to accumulate assets ... lelong firesales ..

For me , i would turn value investor during this time . Momentum investing can keep for the next 2yrs until the next rally. LOL
Beh Ki Jiu Lou , Beh lou Jiu Ki lor < Newton's law of gravity , but what don't might not come back

In the game of poker , "if you've been in the game 30mins and you don't know who the patsy is, you are the patsy
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Re: HengHeng's Trading Corner

Postby blid2def » Thu Sep 25, 2008 9:50 am

HH, thanks for posting this. Well thought-out, and I concur with your views. Just wanted a clarity on the part "resource sectors" - are you talking about basic materials & commodity companies, or is that your codespeak for the alternative energy sector? I'm trying to link this to what you mentioned in one of your posts last time about solar plays. :D
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Re: HengHeng's Trading Corner

Postby HengHeng » Thu Sep 25, 2008 9:56 am

Resources sectors would mean anything to with resources lol ... well commodities <-- not really will do well in an economic slowdown .

Am looking at alternative energies , nano technologies , raw material sectors .. these all i categorize into one sector .. just like transport which includes Airlines , Shipping lines , Mrts , Buses etc..

I'm saying sector as a whole coz ... usually similiar markets moves in the same direction. Unless direct sectors like communication -> Singtel and Starhub <-- both competing for monopoly ... negative competitveness
Beh Ki Jiu Lou , Beh lou Jiu Ki lor < Newton's law of gravity , but what don't might not come back

In the game of poker , "if you've been in the game 30mins and you don't know who the patsy is, you are the patsy
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Re: HengHeng's Trading Corner

Postby blid2def » Thu Sep 25, 2008 10:00 am

Resources sectors would mean anything to with resources lol ...


Wahlao LOL... best lah this answer. :D Okay, I got what you're saying. Nanotech... hmm, interesting that you should mention it - this completely slipped my mind - too nano... Haha... thanks for the reminder. :)
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Re: HengHeng's Trading Corner

Postby HengHeng » Sat Jan 03, 2009 10:29 pm

As 2008 ends and the start of a new year 2009 is an exciting year for me. Hmm took a year long break and i feel that it is time to go back to investing again. Well was mainly a trader last year. LOL spent last year looking at some people's post and realised something. Well even in semi holiday mood my returns on investments was slight more tripled but i believe it just partially luck on my side.

Those so called financial gurus alot turn financial goondus this year. LOL well just ask most of them and they would have tell u their returns might be lesser than 10% if not negative as compared to the previous year of over 40%. It just come to show given any good year any tom d**k and harry can say they are gurus .. how come bad year cannot make money leh .. they just throw the average returns out .. haha lame excuse... can swim means can swim or not call urself a financial expert for what.. still wanna give people advice.. LOL.. sorry if i sounded harsh ... but was commenting it one particular character which chased me to this wonderful forum.

Mainly , I would be accumulating Equities in multiple sectors as i believe markets might have slowly bottomed well i bought some stocks at near its bottom prices and proceed accumulating more assuming if the prices drops below them, mainly financial and resourses as mentioned previously.

Other stuff in which i would be looking into this year.

1. Properties related investments - why ? Coz alot of people puking blood lor dun need why one.

2. Financial related bonds as markets becomes unstable and credit becomes harder to be accessed you would be able to find some quality bonds which might fetch pretty high yields especially the ones in US but i would like to warn everyone , this is a very niche market and assuming if you know nuts about about bonds the best thing is better get someone else which is in the market to advise you or better still keep out entirely.

3. Tech stocks but this i keep until second half of the year then i consider though i still think nano tech and energy development stocks are still the next big thing.

4. Currencies - Some people might say i'm mad but i would consider holding some USD as we go into the 2nd quater of 2009 but i would be holding USD dollar based assets which might be less liquid as compared to holding them in hard cash but it is one particular currency which i might believe to be strong towards the end of 2009.

4.1 another currency in which i might be looking into would be GBP it is oversold .. dun ask me why .. coz you can go check out the charts yourself if you do not know what i'm saying why then dun bother to invest in it.

5. Shorting ( *note high risk and not recommended) Locally i would be interested to short DBS and gold(this one can short how much short how much anyway i made a ton last year) if possible but dun ask me why .. personal hunch that it is really in bad shape.

6. Longing a very far far month OIL contract : Limited supply , unlimited demand .. sooner or later sure go back up .. just pay the premium and sit and wait.

BTW do feel free to drop your comments , well we can always have an open discussion.
Beh Ki Jiu Lou , Beh lou Jiu Ki lor < Newton's law of gravity , but what don't might not come back

In the game of poker , "if you've been in the game 30mins and you don't know who the patsy is, you are the patsy
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Re: HengHeng's Trading Corner

Postby HengHeng » Mon Apr 06, 2009 1:35 pm

Another update on my trades.

1. I've just liquidated most of my equities for fear of a correction anytime (exited with a decent profit), personally i'm looking forward to one and am pretty worried after seeing this unsustainable rally goes out of control. Rally too much based on the optimism.

2. Am still holding on the my shorts on gold.

3. Looking forward to lower property prices as people come to realise that the economy will not be picking up anytime soon and alot of people are reaching T.O.Ps will likely be looking for exit and this post good opportunities for me get good properties looking forward.

4. Currencies wise , i'm still looking to a sudden strenght in USD as market correct itself for until the 3rd quater of 2009.

5. Would be waiting for chances to short Indices futures. LOL dun ask me why ... when everyone in the world is optimistic i would be pessismistic.
Beh Ki Jiu Lou , Beh lou Jiu Ki lor < Newton's law of gravity , but what don't might not come back

In the game of poker , "if you've been in the game 30mins and you don't know who the patsy is, you are the patsy
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Re: HengHeng's Trading Corner

Postby HengHeng » Tue Jun 23, 2009 10:02 pm

Anyway based on my "gut" feel .. i'm very worried that the markets might correct during july and august .. and would recommend people to reduce their risk exposures .. and wait for better opportunities .. Bonds over supply , US might have problems repaying debt looking forward , this might lead to equities corrections and USD weakness long term.

More banks in US to close down , more foreign investments from other countries in US. More irregularities looking forward in investment world ..

Forex might become the next "in" investment tool in the next 10 years and it might be as common as stock investments as global interest rates are set to remain low for the next 1~2 years making FDs really unattractive.




Anyway this is just my personal opinion , you can just take it with a pinch of salt.. coz at the end of the day .. everyone is responsible for their own risk and investments they take ... i can't make u do something you do not want to do it yourself.. LOL

Anyway , my views are looking forward

Up til nov , there might be continue USD strenght ...

Oil might drop below 60 before rebounding

Gold might drop below 900 and test 800 and below

Equites might correct come july and august

Properties to drop til the end of the year ... on over supply ..

I'm gonna take a break after i done some collections after the correction if there is one ..


My Trades

1. Short equites and indicies and warrants
2. Looking to buy on the cheap on equities if there is a correction ( almost near zero commitments in equites less than 10%)
3. Looking for properties to invest in (not limited to singapore)
4. Looking in the junk bond as interest rates are being forced to increase due to the lack of interest in corporate debt.
5. Short commodites on general.
6. If oil reachs below 60 can consider buying some.
Beh Ki Jiu Lou , Beh lou Jiu Ki lor < Newton's law of gravity , but what don't might not come back

In the game of poker , "if you've been in the game 30mins and you don't know who the patsy is, you are the patsy
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Re: HengHeng's Trading Corner

Postby millionairemind » Tue Jun 23, 2009 10:41 pm

Hello HH,

Long time no see you here in the forum. Hope that all is well :D

Cheers,
mm
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
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