HengHeng's Trading Corner

[HengHeng]

Transferred from Weekly Trading Strategy.

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I'm expecting general strenght in the USD with ECB and BOE holding rates <-- meaning ECB maybe be force to move down on their stance on a hawkish rate hike. BOE is expected to cut rates next round.

My trades might be

To short gold 890
To short Euro any price now
To short GBP

[HengHeng]

Hmm guess i think i set up shop here to post my views. Too many categories outside sometimes see until blur.

To me , actually currencies actually one topic enough liaoz.

News too much with no comments one see liaoz also blur .. .Too much news become noise. Basically news if not digested becomes noise or spam .. see liaoz abit useless. End up not looking at it.


Anyway my views are

UK -> Dead duck see when die nia. High inflation coupled with slowing economic growth. Sooner or later sure got hedge funds exploit the abitragery stuff between UK and US companies. Do pay attention to some financial stocks with sister companies in both countries. As well as options.

US -> with many people signalling a recession it is just a matter of time before it gets to people's brains to sell. Why i say so , when i was crying out loud to people during of a correction in Dec people say i siao. Now i have mention a correction in May and 3th quater up to u to decide........ btw i'm already positioned in a strangle position for indicies. Anyway i think i would only be collecting stocks only during close to the end of the year. Meanwhile i would put in cash or dividend blue chips which are unaffected reccesion something like palm oil industries .

People ask me why , but sometimes i don't know why ... it is gut feeling. I do subconsiously know what is going on but i cannot think about it just yet. But as and when i know i will explain... what i do know is there is a reason behind all this gut feelings .... lol is that call sub conscious competence? lol joking.

[LenaHuat]

Heng2, U've chosen a good parking lot:

Hmm guess i think i set up shop here to post my views. Too many categories outside sometimes see until blur.

Recalled that U had juz recently posted that U shared my negative sentiments abt the markets. U are right that sometimes it can be fingered to guts feelings.
Also like this "end of the year" idea":

Anyway i think i would only be collecting stocks only during close to the end of the year. Meanwhile i would put in cash or dividend blue chips which are unaffected reccesion something like palm oil industries .

[HengHeng]

Well feel free to post your thoughts here as well. I think we can all learn from each other. My initial intentions was to just use this as a corner to share views and thoughts. It is simply too messy with all those new topics.

Too messy to my comfort.

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For those that do not know what is going on. My suggestion is keep cash at this present moment. Do some liquidation of the stocks in which you do not intend to hold for various reasons like slowing growth potential , skrinking profit margins.

For those with cash and has intentions of having a buying spree , my suggestion is probably it is too late. Lelong might have passed us , we might see another round of consolidation. I'm not sure when it would be but signals from various sources are pointing to an inevitable correction.

1. Fed's signal of their hand off the financial markets.

2. Short term loans used to stablize the market is maturing (100 days)

3. Most financial instituitions mainly investment banks have not declared their actual sub prime losses meaning it is still a running number. From the financial statements of some instituitions in which i have read , many actually offered writedowns and not writeoffs , it is merely pushing the "losses" to a later time instead of actual realisation now.

4. As olympics draws near , many factors will come in mind. The white elephants created will eat into china GDP , the ecological problems which will arise from china's rapid growth strategy and the flaw equity markets in china. With all these potential catalyst waiting for reasons to push market down , i'm pretty skeptical about the global economy at least for the moment.

5. With US still in pain , it is a matter of time where this pain would spread to europe and asia. My gut feeling tells me that it might just stable down towards next year with us seeing a sharp drop probably this year with fear lurking around the corner.


My other thoughts :

I borrow some perspective i learn from Soros's books. The feedback loop or Reflexivity teachs us the boom and bust occurs only when market prices affect the so called fundamentals but there are times where the Market's perspective differ from the underlying reality.

There are times where other factors like fear and propraganda moves the markets. For instance G.S called for oil prices to hit 200 in 2 years and oil prices push like crazy. But it is not like US economy is going crash the next week but how come prices move so fast ?

The US economy is not neccessary is a good shape why is there a recovery of 15% from a close 30% drop in Dow Jones. How can this happen ? To me those post the best chances to for entries to trades. Of course formulating your own strategy to gain from this prespective is everyone's job. It is different for how people percieve what is going to happen. My opinions might differ from yours. Thats how trading works.

[HengHeng]

Anyway , i still feel that it is still very messy. And of course it is a valid reason why winston renamed the tread but frankly speaking i feel that it is getting a little autocratic. This is a public forum and if people just happily shift you around would u be happy? While the forum is organised to someone's comfort and it isn't to the comfort of others.

Expecially when market data gets 3 individual topics and individuals aren't even allowed to have their own small corner inside sub topics ?!? While other treads have to combine into 1? Market data gets 3 topics where there is actually nothing except boring market info? Well to me thats spam.

Yes i understand that people are trying to fill the forum with post but frankly by randomly posting market data to me isn't the reason why i moved into this forum.

Frankly speaking , i'm pretty curious on this decision.

Just look at the board index. Market data has 3 sections on market data and still have SGX and HK and US stock picks and i can't even have my own tread within one of the sub topics . Well , i don't know but probably i won't post as much. Frankly speaking too much rubbish to me.

Probably i'm individualistic. All traders are. Just look at warren buffett or geoge soros do they tell you what they are trading? They probably share ideas but they will never be telling you how to handle your money. And people now are telling me what i can do and can't do in this forum while the mess is still there. Well to me , i can choose my path. If here doesn't suit me i will move on as well.

[winston]

Hi HengHeng,

Thanks for your kind feedback.

We have taken note of your comments and will be discussing it, to see how best we can improve on things.

Thanks and take care,
Winston

[helios]

dear HengHeng,

i actually read your posts (above, above) - thrice.

i must say i really enjoy your thoughts and spectrum.

do keep them coming,
rdgs.

[HengHeng]

Thanks San , so how is your view on the economy at the moment? Well you can relate to the area of competence in your case as i have with mine.

I would like to listen from more people to gather more information on how the market percieves certain stuff as to improve our skills along the way. So if anyone would like to give me their perspective of the economy in which they are monitering it would definitely be helpful.

It doesn't really matter if you are a beginner or a guru. Well i started my trading asking questions and coming out with ideas which i throw out to my seniors for their opinion. Well i had feedbacks to these questions and ideas and it has benefitted me along the way.

[helios]

dear HengHeng,

pardon me, am a beginner. (can't take your praise offhand).

Q: u wrote that e shape of US is not doing good. ie. when e economy slumped back earlier this year, there's a 3rd possibility that it could be a W-shaped recession w double-dipped downturn on especially on some inflation-fighting policies setforthed by e govt, be it SIN or US/ UK or asian countries ...

how e best do u think we could adapt/ re-fine our trading metholody?

your elabourations, if any examples given? of course, individual opinions do differ dep on risk level.

w thanks.

[HengHeng]

Well if i understood your question correctly you are asking me how to refine your trading methodology.

Firstly , you must understand it is your trading methodolgy it is pretty difficult for me to refine it for u. You got to do it yourself.

But probably i will highlight some pointers in which you can take note of.


1. Understand that it is your money! If you are lazy on handling them , you will end up losing it to someone which put their money to priority. Understand where you place your money and what are the likely risk.

For instance if i put my money in the bank. I'm delegating my responsiblity of this money to the banks for investments in return for let's say 1% return. Of course if you "invest" your money to some other sources like funds or stocks. Effectively you are delegating your responsiblity to them. So you would need to know what are they doing with your money. Assuming if you are doing stocks will these stocks be affected by the sub prime so on and so forth.

2. You have mentioned about coming into a conclusion of a W shaped reccesion or a double dipped downturn ( actually i don't really understand this part i'm not really good in technical stuff to me T.A is just a tool for reasoning not an absolute answer) so assuming if you know why am i coming to such a conclusion

You would have indentified potential risky scenarios (which might not happen but it is best to guard against) and how best can you do to protect your assets if not "gain" from such a potential movement.

My suggestion is to learn how to protect yourself against these risk. Firstly by indentifying them in which you have. Then find out whether if there are tools offered by the market to protect against this risk. It is your money ultimately so when there is a need, there would be a solution. One example , a lady won't have problems finding a new shoe shop mentioned by a friend when she intends to find it.

For instance you have highlighted inflation , so what investment tools are usually unaffected by inflation or reccession we can consider doing something on them. Of course assuming if those central banks were to cut their rates you would have to indentify who are the ones most likely to be affected. So on and so forth. Hope you get my point.