Lithium's Investment Journey 01 (Jan 10 - Jul 10)

Lithium's Investment Journey 01 (Jan 10 - Jul 10)

Postby lithium » Sat Jan 23, 2010 11:46 pm

Hello everyone, last saturday I had a wild idea waking up in the morning. I was thinking to post all my trades in the forum and expose all my mistakes. It should be a good way to learn since everyone is watching me when I make mistakes. So I will be more careful. But I wish you guys can advice me when I make mistakes, not just laugh at me. :oops:

Winston requested me to be interviewed last month, I was reluctant. So maybe I can introduce a bit about myself here. I’m very new to the market, only 1 year + experience. But I am already in love with this game. Hopefully one day I can learn enough skills to trade full time like you guys here.

I have read some books past 1 year. Learned basics of both Technical Analysis (from Daryl Guppy & William O’neil) and Fundamental Analysis (from Mary Buffett & William O’neil). And Jim Rogers has convinced me that the bull is in china for the next 10 to 20 years, so I chose to trade Chinese stocks in HK market.

Here are my current trading strategies and rules.

1) I trade only fundamentally sound stocks (Strong growth or undervalued, and no debt problem). I prefer to pick undervalue stocks when market is in recession and extreme fear like 2008, and growth stock when market normalize like 2009 and now. A nice guide to interpret PE ratios:

0-10: Either the stock is undervalued or the company's earnings are thought to be in decline. Alternatively, current earnings may be substantially above historic trends or the company may have profited from selling assets.

10-17: For many companies a P/E ratio in this range may be considered fair value.

17-25: Either the stock is overvalued or the company's earnings have increased since the last earnings figure was published. The stock may also be a growth stock with earnings expected to increase substantially in future.

25+: A company whose shares have a very high P/E may have high expected future growth in earnings or the stock may be the subject of a speculative bubble.

2) Before I open a trade, the first thing I ask myself is how much money I’m willing to lose on the trade, then I pick a stop loss price, and calculate the position size. I cut loss like cutting vegetable. It’s easy for me because I already know how much I’m willing to lose when the trade don’t go my way.

3) My entries are normally “catching falling knife at support” and “breakouts”, occasionally I do some
“Pyramid”

4) I also trade FXP (2x inverse ETF of HK Chinese stocks) to do some hedging when market sentiment is not so good, like now. So I can still hold on to my stocks if they have not hit the stop loss price.

5) Diversify. Maximum position size for 1 stock is 20% of my fund. But I don’t diversify too much until I cannot handle them, so maximum 10 stocks.

I will add more during my learning journey.

Things I yet to learn, “Option strategy” and “Top down, Sector approach”

Thanks for reading guys. :D
Last edited by lithium on Sun Mar 28, 2010 9:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Lithium's Investment Journey

Postby winston » Sun Jan 24, 2010 7:53 am

Hi Lithium,

Thanks for the kind sharing.

I noticed that you are willing to risk up to 20% of your fund on one position. That's a bit too big for me. I will never risk 20% of everything I own on one stock, even when there's a tight Stop Loss. Maybe you meant 20% of your trading account rather than 20% of your Net Worth ?

I think a few trading books have mentioned that your position size should be only 5% so that you can make 20 very bad mistakes before gambler's ruin.

I wish you the best in your investment journey ! In one year, you have already learnt so much. In my first year, I was dicking around with penny stocks, rumors etc :roll:

Take care,
Winston
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Lithium's Investment Journey

Postby lithium » Sun Jan 24, 2010 9:26 am

Good morning Winston!

Thanks for your advice as usual. :D

I started late in this game, so I was fast tracking everything, I spent all my free time reading and watching the market for the past 1 year. That's how addicted it is. I think I need rehabilitate very soon. :mrgreen:

My fund or net worth is very much smaller compare to yours :D So I have to take a bit more risk here, otherwise my broker will make more money than me :D That's why I only trade fundamentally sound companies so I don't get wipe out the whole 20% of my fund. But I know I will have to diversify more and trade less when my fund size gets bigger.
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Re: Lithium's Investment Journey

Postby iam802 » Sun Jan 24, 2010 10:07 am

lithium wrote:I started late in this game, so I was fast tracking everything, I spent all my free time reading and watching the market for the past 1 year. That's how addicted it is. I think I need rehabilitate very soon. :mrgreen:



I think lots of us started that way (myself included) :)

Thanks for sharing. Hope to see you posting more.
1. Always wait for the setup. NO SETUP; NO TRADE

2. The trend will END but I don't know WHEN.

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The Ichimoku Thread | Option Strategies Thread | Japanese Candlesticks Thread
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Re: Lithium's Investment Journey

Postby learn2win » Sun Jan 24, 2010 10:28 am

Hi Lithium,

Wish you all the best in your investment journey.

The only advice I can give you after investing for a number of year:

Profits take care of itself, but losses do not. Cut losses short! :D
Guard Thy Treasure from Losses - The Fourth Cure for a Lean Purse - George Clason
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Re: Lithium's Investment Journey

Postby lithium » Sun Jan 24, 2010 10:56 am

iam802 wrote:
lithium wrote:I started late in this game, so I was fast tracking everything, I spent all my free time reading and watching the market for the past 1 year. That's how addicted it is. I think I need rehabilitate very soon. :mrgreen:



I think lots of us started that way (myself included) :)

Thanks for sharing. Hope to see you posting more.


Thanks youare802, Hopefully I can trade as good as you one day. Please post some advise here yeah ;)
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Re: Lithium's Investment Journey

Postby lithium » Sun Jan 24, 2010 10:57 am

learn2win wrote:Hi Lithium,

Wish you all the best in your investment journey.

The only advice I can give you after investing for a number of year:

Profits take care of itself, but losses do not. Cut losses short! :D


Thanks learn2win, I will learn2cutloss so I can win :mrgreen:
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Re: Lithium's Investment Journey

Postby lithium » Sun Jan 24, 2010 10:25 pm

If bounce tomorrow, wait and see if it can break 21000 resistance. If it close below 20500 and my stocks hit stop loss, get rid of it.
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Re: Lithium's Investment Journey

Postby winston » Sun Jan 24, 2010 10:30 pm

lithium wrote:If bounce tomorrow, wait and see if it can break 21000 resistance. If it close below 20500 and my stocks hit stop loss, get rid of it.


20500 has a higher probability than 21000 :P
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Re: Lithium's Investment Journey

Postby lithium » Sun Jan 24, 2010 10:32 pm

Then I will be 100% cash again :D
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